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Date: 29 Apr 2000 16:20:27 +0100
From: "Vijay Aswani, Ph.D." <vaswani@sinfo.net>
Subject: Parametric bootstrapping
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Hi everyone,

I have a dataset of 12 taxa and ~4,000-odd bases that I am trying to
analyze. Specifically, I am trying to test the monophyly of a sub-group of
taxa on the tree. ModelTest selects GTR+I+G as the best model for my data
under Maximum-Likelihood. I want to do the Log-Likelihood Ratio test on this
hypothesis (monophyly of a sub-group within the tree). To test the
significance I thought I would do parametric bootstrapping. Can anyone
please show me how I go about this, step by step?

I am thinking I would go about it as follows:

1. Generate simulated data sets using Seq-Gen (how many are appropriate?) Do
I generate two groups of datasets - one with the best tree and the other
with the best tree with the sub-group constrained as monophyletic?)
2. I guess I would then have to compute the likelihood scores for each of
the simulated datasets. Assuming I did a 100, is there any automated way of
doing this? Or do I have to open each dataset in PAUP*, load the appropriate
tree, calculate likelihood scores and append them to a file?
3. What do I do next? Do I make a matrix doing substractions of every
combination of likelihood values from the best tree set with those from the
constrained tree set? Is there any program to do this? Is this what
generates the distribution of delta values to which I would compare the
delta obtained from the real data set?
4. Am I on the right track?!

Has anyone out there done parametric bootstrapping to test monophyly by the
method of Huelsenbeck et al (1996, 1997)? Can you share the procedural
details of how you did this?

Thanks in anticipation, to all who reply.

Sincerely,

Vijay

/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/
Vijay Aswani, Ph.D.
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute,
Unit 0948,
APO AA 34002-0948
U.S.A.
Tel (in Panama): 507-212-8824  (work), 236-3243 (home)
Fax: 507-228-0516
Email: vaswani@sinfo.net or aswaniv@naos.si.edu
Homepage: http://aswani.freehosting.net
/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/


---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Mon May  1 15:57:14 2000
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Date: 1 May 2000 14:30:32 +0100
From: learn@valis.microbiol.washington.edu
Subject: Charter for bionet.molbio.evolution
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Information for MOLECULAR-EVOLUTION/bionet.molbio.evolution (moderated)

USENET newsgroup name:  bionet.molbio.evolution

Status:                 Moderated

One line Description:   Discussions about research in molecular evolution.

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Jerry Learn 
Dept. of Microbiology
University of Washington
Seattle, Washington USA
email: learn@u.washington.edu

James McInerney
Dept. of Biology, 
National University of Ireland,
Maynooth,
Co. Kildare, Ireland 
email james.o.mcinerney@may.ie
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From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Tue May  2 16:33:46 2000
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Date: Mon, 01 May 2000 19:24:45 -0400
From: John Huelsenbeck <johnh@brahms.biology.rochester.edu>
Subject: Re: Parametric bootstrapping
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aswaniv@naos.si.edu

Dear Vijay:

I saw your post on bionet.molbio.evolution. I think I can answer your
question.

You calculate the log likelihood ratio test statistic for your original
data. The test statistic is D = lnL0 - lnL1, where lnL0 is the log
likelihood under the constraint that the subgroup of interest is
monophyletic and lnL1 is the likelihood without the constraint.

You want to generate the probability (null) distribution of D; this
distribution is generated under the assumption that the subgroup
really is monophyletic. How do you generate the null distibution?

1. Find the maximum likelihood tree, branch lengths, and substitution
    parameters under the null model (i.e., that the group is monophyletic).

2. Simulate 100 (or more) data sets using the tree from step #1. You
    are assured that the data were generated under the null model (i.e., you 
    know for a fact that each simulated data set really did have the subgroup
    of interest monophyletic).

3. For each simulated data set, calculate lnL0 and lnL1. Find D for each
    simulated data set. 

4. You will then have 100 (or more) D's. The frequency histogram of the
    D's calculated from the simulation represent an approximation of
    the null distribution.

5. If your observed D is greater than 95% of the simulated D's, then reject
    the null hypothesis (that the group is monophyletic) at the 5% level.

You should be able to use SeqGen for step 2. I also have a program (available
at http://brahms.biology.rochester.edu) that will simulate data under the
HKY85+Gamma model of DNA substitution.

The most time consuming part of the procedure is step # 3. You can automate
this step as follows: Inbed all 100 simulated data sets into a single file.
Your file will look something like this:

#NEXUS

begin data;
   dimensions ntax=x nchar=y;
   format datatype=dna;
   matrix
   Taxon 1 AACGT...
   Taxon 2 AACGG...
   etc...
   ;
end;

begin paup;
   [PAUP COMMANDS HERE]
end;

begin data;
   dimensions ntax=x nchar=y;
   format datatype=dna;
   matrix
   Taxon 1 AACGT...
   Taxon 2 AACGG...
   etc...
   ;
end;

begin paup;
   [PAUP COMMANDS HERE]
end;

begin data;
   dimensions ntax=x nchar=y;
   format datatype=dna;
   matrix
   Taxon 1 AACGT...
   Taxon 2 AACGG...
   etc...
   ;
end;

begin paup;
   [PAUP COMMANDS HERE]
end;

begin data;
   dimensions ntax=x nchar=y;
   format datatype=dna;
   matrix
   Taxon 1 AACGT...
   Taxon 2 AACGG...
   etc...
   ;
end;

begin paup;
   [PAUP COMMANDS HERE]
end;

begin data;
   dimensions ntax=x nchar=y;
   format datatype=dna;
   matrix
   Taxon 1 AACGT...
   Taxon 2 AACGG...
   etc...
   ;
end;

begin paup;
   [PAUP COMMANDS HERE]
end;

begin data;
   dimensions ntax=x nchar=y;
   format datatype=dna;
   matrix
   Taxon 1 AACGT...
   Taxon 2 AACGG...
   etc...
   ;
end;

begin paup;
   [PAUP COMMANDS HERE]
end;

(This is obviously meant to work with PAUP*).
Search and replace all of the "[PAUP COMMANDS HERE]" with

   set autoclose=yes warnreset=no increase=auto;
   constraints my_constraint = ((1,2,3[whatever));
   set criterion=parsimony;
   hsearch enforce=yes;
   set criterion=likelihood;
   lset nst=6 rmatrix=est basefreq=est rates=gamma shape=est pinvar=est;
   lscores 1;
   lset rmatrix=prev basefreq=prev shape=prev pinvar=prev;
   hsearch start=1 enforce=yes;
   lset nst=6 rmatrix=est basefreq=est rates=gamma shape=est pinvar=est;
   lscores 1;
   lset rmatrix=prev basefreq=prev shape=prev pinvar=prev;
   hsearch start=1 enforce=yes;
   
   set criterion=parsimony;
   hsearch enforce=no;
   set criterion=likelihood;
   lset nst=6 rmatrix=est basefreq=est rates=gamma shape=est pinvar=est;
   lscores 1;
   lset rmatrix=prev basefreq=prev shape=prev pinvar=prev;
   hsearch start=1 enforce=no;
   lset nst=6 rmatrix=est basefreq=est rates=gamma shape=est pinvar=est;
   lscores 1;
   lset rmatrix=prev basefreq=prev shape=prev pinvar=prev;
   hsearch start=1 enforce=no;

This will perform two quick (quick for maximum likelihood, that is)
searches, one
under the constraint that the group is monophyletic and the other unconstrained.
Make certain that on the first line of the the first paup block encountered, 
you put in the line

   log start file=myfile;

and that the last line of the last paup block has 

   log stop;

That way, all of the results of the analysis will be output to a log file
which you
can read at your leisure. 

I don't have PAUP* on my computer at home, so the above paup block was from
memory. Make a small test file to check it.

On another note, you may also want to try the program BAMBE. BAMBE is written
by Don Simon and Bret Larget (I don't know the URL, but you can reach Larget's
page through the links page at my web site). The program performs Bayesian
estimation of phylogeny. The program returns the posterior probabilities of
trees (the posterior probability of a tree is the probability of the tree
conditioned
on the observed DNA sequences). The probability that the subgroup of interest
is monophyletic is simply the sum of the posterior probabilities of trees having
this group. This analysis will take a small fraction of the time that the LRT
will take.

Good Luck.

John Huelsenbeck







In article <8ek5ui$av5$1@mercury.hgmp.mrc.ac.uk>, "Vijay Aswani, Ph.D."
<vaswani@sinfo.net> wrote:

>Hi everyone,
>
>I have a dataset of 12 taxa and ~4,000-odd bases that I am trying to
>analyze. Specifically, I am trying to test the monophyly of a sub-group of
>taxa on the tree. ModelTest selects GTR+I+G as the best model for my data
>under Maximum-Likelihood. I want to do the Log-Likelihood Ratio test on this
>hypothesis (monophyly of a sub-group within the tree). To test the
>significance I thought I would do parametric bootstrapping. Can anyone
>please show me how I go about this, step by step?
>
>I am thinking I would go about it as follows:
>
>1. Generate simulated data sets using Seq-Gen (how many are appropriate?) Do
>I generate two groups of datasets - one with the best tree and the other
>with the best tree with the sub-group constrained as monophyletic?)
>2. I guess I would then have to compute the likelihood scores for each of
>the simulated datasets. Assuming I did a 100, is there any automated way of
>doing this? Or do I have to open each dataset in PAUP*, load the appropriate
>tree, calculate likelihood scores and append them to a file?
>3. What do I do next? Do I make a matrix doing substractions of every
>combination of likelihood values from the best tree set with those from the
>constrained tree set? Is there any program to do this? Is this what
>generates the distribution of delta values to which I would compare the
>delta obtained from the real data set?
>4. Am I on the right track?!
>
>Has anyone out there done parametric bootstrapping to test monophyly by the
>method of Huelsenbeck et al (1996, 1997)? Can you share the procedural
>details of how you did this?
>
>Thanks in anticipation, to all who reply.
>
>Sincerely,
>
>Vijay
>
>/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/
>Vijay Aswani, Ph.D.
>Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute,
>Unit 0948,
>APO AA 34002-0948
>U.S.A.
>Tel (in Panama): 507-212-8824  (work), 236-3243 (home)
>Fax: 507-228-0516
>Email: vaswani@sinfo.net or aswaniv@naos.si.edu
>Homepage: http://aswani.freehosting.net
>/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/
>
>
>---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Tue May  2 16:35:18 2000
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Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: 2 May 2000 11:51:00 +0100
From: Andrew Rambaut <andrew.rambaut@zoology.oxford.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: Parametric bootstrapping
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[[ This message was both posted and mailed: see
   the "To," "Cc," and "Newsgroups" headers for details. ]]

In article <8ek5ui$av5$1@mercury.hgmp.mrc.ac.uk>, Vijay Aswani, Ph.D.
<vaswani@sinfo.net> wrote:

> significance I thought I would do parametric bootstrapping. Can anyone
> please show me how I go about this, step by step?

Nick Goldman has a web page that describes the procedure:

http://www.zoo.cam.ac.uk/zoostaff/goldman/index.html

Click on the link that says "The Kishino-Hasegawa test of phylogenies
is seriously biased: more information here...".

> 1. Generate simulated data sets using Seq-Gen (how many are
> appropriate?) Do

Perhaps 200? Depends on how border-line the test statistic is. The
nice thing about parametric bootstrapping is that if you have more 
than one machine available you can divide the task between them.

> I generate two groups of datasets - one with the best tree and the other
> with the best tree with the sub-group constrained as monophyletic?)

No. You only generate the data on the NULL hypothesis. That is if your
ML tree does not exhibit monophyly, then your NULL hypothesis is the
best tree which does. 

The question you are asking is, "If the truth is that the group is
monophyletic, is it likely that I got the non-monophyly result due
to random error?"

So you simulate on the NULL hypothesis and for each you perform 
exactly the same analysis that you did for your real data.

> 2. I guess I would then have to compute the likelihood scores for each
> of
> the simulated datasets. Assuming I did a 100, is there any automated
> way of
> doing this? Or do I have to open each dataset in PAUP*, load the
> appropriate
> tree, calculate likelihood scores and append them to a file?

Design a PAUP block with your PAUP commands for finding the ML
trees under the monophyly constraints and without. Use the program
Phy2Nex which is included in the Seq-Gen package to create a NEXUS
file with your PAUP block inserted after each replicate dataset.
Run this through PAUP.

The best way of writing the likelihoods to a file is to (after
the tree search) use the command:

LSCORE 1 \ FILE=NULL.likelihoods APPEND=YES;

This writes the likelihood of the tree to a file called
NULL.likelihoods, appending each to the end of the file.

> 3. What do I do next? Do I make a matrix doing substractions of every
> combination of likelihood values from the best tree set with those from

No you take the difference between the log likelihood for the
monophyly constrained tree and the unconstrained tree for each
simulated dataset. You then compare the difference in log likelihood
you got for your real data.

> constrained tree set? Is there any program to do this? Is this what

Excel works well. Sort the simulated deltas and see what percentile
your real delta falls at.

> 4. Am I on the right track?!

Nearly.

Andrew
---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Tue May  2 16:35:40 2000
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To: mol-evol@net.bio.net
Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: 2 May 2000 12:52:47 +0100
From: Marcella Attimonelli <marcella@area.area.ba.cnr.it>
Subject: median network software
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I should be interested to know where it is possible to access to the
software allowing  the construction of the median network in order to
classify haplotypes from nucleotide sequences of different subjects

Thanks in advance

marcella attimonelli

-------------------------------------------------------------------

dr Marcella Attimonelli
Dipartimento di Biochimica e Biologia Molecolare
Via E.Orabona 4 - 70126 Bari - Italy
Tel 39 080 5482130   FAX 39 080 5484467 e-mail marcella@area.ba.cnr.it
Responsible of the Italian EMBnet node at 
Area di Ricerca del CNR - BARI, Italy  Via Amendola 166/5 - 70126 Bari,
Italy 
---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Thu May  4 20:00:50 2000
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Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: 4 May 2000 19:58:49 +0100
From: Vijay Aswani <aswaniv@naos.si.edu>
Subject: Parametric bootstrapping
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Sender: owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk
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Hi all,

First of all, I would like to thank all those who responded to my earlier
posting asking for information on parametric bootstrapping. They were Chris
Conroy, Andrew Rambaut, John Huelsenbeck, Thomas Buckley and Jack Sullivan.

A number of those who responded pointed me to the web site of Nick Goldman
who had a manuscript and some very helpful procedural tips on the process.

I am writing to report that I have carried out the process and ... have some
questions.

First of all, the procedure seems to call for simulating datasets (I used a
100 replications) using the null hypothesis tree and estimated likelihood
parameters of that tree. The null hypothesis tree, as I understand it, is
not the best ML tree but the hypothetical topology I wish to test (eg.
monophyly of a particular group).

Once I have the 100 datasets, I then calculate the ML score of the best tree
(by heuristic search) and the ML score of the hypothesis tree. I subtract:
Lnull - LML and plot the distribution of these 100 values.

I ran the test twice with 2 different hypotheses. I therefore simulated 100
datasets in each case. I noticed that in both of these results, the
difference in ML values between the ML score of the best tree and the null
hypothesis tree was very small. (As it turns out, in both cases, the
hypotheses were rejected because of a larger difference between the real
best ML score and null hypothesis ML score).

This brings me to my question: isn't using the hypothesis tree's topology
and ML parameters to build the 100 datasets and then computing the best tree
in each dataset a bit circular. Wouldn't the best tree in each case be the
same tree whose topology and ML parameters were used to create the data sets
in the first place? Perhaps the reason why L null and L ML differ so little
is that the dataset was created from the parameters of the null tree.

If this is true, then the range of L ml - L null would be very small (since
they would be almost the same) and almost every hypothesis tested would be
rejected. 

I would appreciate any thoughts on this ...

thanks,

Vijay
________________________________________________
Vijay Aswani, Ph.D.
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute,
Unit 0948
APO AA 34002-0948
U.S.A.
Tel: +507-212-8824
Fax: +507-212-8790
Email: aswaniv@naos.si.edu or vaswani@sinfo.net
************************************************


---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Thu May  4 23:47:36 2000
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Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: 4 May 2000 20:52:55 +0100
From: Thomas Buckley <tbuckley@duke.edu>
Subject: RE: Parametric bootstrapping
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Hi Vijay,

The parametric bootstrap test is powerful, in the statistical sense.
However, it may become too liberal if the model you use to generate the
sequences is too simple, relative to the "true model".  So, we can attempt
to minimize this potential error by using a complex and presumably realistic
substitution model.  The effect of inappropriate model assumptions has been
shown in simulations (Huelsenbeck, 1996?), and in only one empirical study
that I know of (Sullivan and Swofford, 1997).   In my experience the null
distribution is very strongly effected by the model used, and so the power
of the test changes markedly with the substitution model used. So, I think
you raise a good point that requires further study.

Thomas

--
Thomas Buckley
Zoology Department
Duke University
Durham, NC 27708-0325
USA

E-mail: tbuckley@duke.edu
Phone: 919-660-7431
Fax: 919-684-6168

 -----Original Message-----
From: 	owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk [mailto:owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk]
On Behalf Of Vijay Aswani
Sent:	Thursday, May 04, 2000 2:59 PM
To:	mol-evol@net.bio.net
Subject:	Parametric bootstrapping

Hi all,

First of all, I would like to thank all those who responded to my earlier
posting asking for information on parametric bootstrapping. They were Chris
Conroy, Andrew Rambaut, John Huelsenbeck, Thomas Buckley and Jack Sullivan.

A number of those who responded pointed me to the web site of Nick Goldman
who had a manuscript and some very helpful procedural tips on the process.

I am writing to report that I have carried out the process and ... have some
questions.

First of all, the procedure seems to call for simulating datasets (I used a
100 replications) using the null hypothesis tree and estimated likelihood
parameters of that tree. The null hypothesis tree, as I understand it, is
not the best ML tree but the hypothetical topology I wish to test (eg.
monophyly of a particular group).

Once I have the 100 datasets, I then calculate the ML score of the best tree
(by heuristic search) and the ML score of the hypothesis tree. I subtract:
Lnull - LML and plot the distribution of these 100 values.

I ran the test twice with 2 different hypotheses. I therefore simulated 100
datasets in each case. I noticed that in both of these results, the
difference in ML values between the ML score of the best tree and the null
hypothesis tree was very small. (As it turns out, in both cases, the
hypotheses were rejected because of a larger difference between the real
best ML score and null hypothesis ML score).

This brings me to my question: isn't using the hypothesis tree's topology
and ML parameters to build the 100 datasets and then computing the best tree
in each dataset a bit circular. Wouldn't the best tree in each case be the
same tree whose topology and ML parameters were used to create the data sets
in the first place? Perhaps the reason why L null and L ML differ so little
is that the dataset was created from the parameters of the null tree.

If this is true, then the range of L ml - L null would be very small (since
they would be almost the same) and almost every hypothesis tested would be
rejected.

I would appreciate any thoughts on this ...

thanks,

Vijay
________________________________________________
Vijay Aswani, Ph.D.
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute,
Unit 0948
APO AA 34002-0948
U.S.A.
Tel: +507-212-8824
Fax: +507-212-8790
Email: aswaniv@naos.si.edu or vaswani@sinfo.net
************************************************


---



---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Fri May  5 22:39:35 2000
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Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: 5 May 2000 21:28:34 +0100
From: Jeff L.Blanchard <jlb@ncgr.org>
Subject: Deadline for Madison Bioinformatics Courses
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This summer the BioPharmaceutical Technology Center Institute in Madison, WI
will be offering the following two bioinformatics-related courses.  The application 
deadline for the courses is this Monday May 7th.  After this date applicants will be 
accepted on a first come/ space available basis.  However since the classes are limited to 
16 participants additional space will be scarce, especially for "Techniques in 
Bioinformatics and Comparative Genomics".

For more information see http://www.btci.org/courses/CoursesList/courses.htm or
contact Jeff Blanchard at the address below.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Techniques in Bioinformatics and Comparative Genomics June 18 - June
23, 2000

Objectives and Goals:  This five-day intensive computer laboratory
course is designed to help participants construct a working library of
bioinformatic tools and resources.  The format will combine lectures
and interactive problem-solving sessions with each participant working
individually at a computer.  An emphasis will be placed on analysis of
practical problems posed by the participants.  The flow of the course
will move from traditional sequence analysis techniques to the
opportunities afforded by the imminent flood of genomic information.
Afternoon research seminars by the instructors will sample academic
and private sector visions of bioinformatics and highlight creative
approaches to utilizing genomic data.  (Please note:  this course is
designed to provide an overview of the field; detailed training in
specific packages will not be provided.)

Instructors include:

Jeff Blanchard, Ph.D., Research Scientist, National Center for Genome Resources
Tim Burland, Ph.D., Vice President and General Manager, DNASTAR 
Barbara Butler, Ph.D., Bioinformatics Training and Education Group Leader,
	Genetics Computer Group 
Ross Overbeek, Ph.D., Senior Computer Scientist, Integrated Genomics 
Ann Palmenberg, Ph.D., Professor, Institute for Molecular Virology
	Department of Biochemistry,University of Wisconsin 
Michael Slater, Ph.D., Senior Scientist, Promega Corporation 
Jeff Thorne, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, 
	North Carolina State University


----------------------------------------------------------------------


Database Design and Development for Genomics Research June 29 - July
1, 2000

Course Overview:  Databases have been the quiet intermediary of
molecular biology research and in their current state offer a
wonderful example of using the web to share experimental results and
knowledge.  In recent years there has been a proliferation of
individual and community oriented databases that contain DNA sequence,
expression, structural, enzymatic, phenotypic, organismal and other
types of data.  Many scientists and private companies now face the
challenge of integrating their data into these heterogeneous databases
and/or synthesizing databases before they can finally get to the heart
of a research question.  This three-day "hands on" workshop will start
with a session on "What are databases?"  and move onto to database
issues in molecular biology related to storing, integrating,
visualizing, analyzing, synthesizing and presenting data.  The
workshop is geared for people in molecular biology lab groups and
computer scientists getting into bioinformatics.  The format will
combine discussions with problem-solving sessions and each participant
will work individually at a computer.

Some specific topics include:

An introduction to database systems and biological databases
Using object-oriented principles to construct a relational database
Developing and using gene expression databases
Genomic Data Warehouse - Integrating data for Complex Analysis 
Integrating undisclosed/private and public data 
Development of Mouse Databases at the Jackson Laboratory 
A Distributed Sequence Annotation System 
Ontologies for Molecular Biology Databases

Instructors include:

Jeff Blanchard, Ph.D., Research Scientist, National Center for Genome Resources 
Carol Bult, Ph.D., Research Scientist, Mouse Genome Informatics Group, The Jackson 
Laboratory
Allan Dickerman, Program Manager, National Center for Genome Resources
Elizabeth Shoop, Ph.D., Research Associate, Computational Biology Center, University of 
Minnesota
Lincoln Stein, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Jennifer Weller, Ph.D. Program Manager, National Center for Genome Resources

There will probably be an additional instructor from the private sector. Matteo di Tommaso 
from Genetics Computer Group was originally scheduled to participate.  However, his is in 
the process of moving to Celera and because of the time of his move will not be able to 
make it. 


----------------------------------------------------------------------



The BioPharmaceutical Technology Center Institute (BTCI) is a
not-for-profit organization operated exclusively for educational,
scientific and cultural purposes.  One goal of BTCI is to promote the
exchange of scientific, educational and cultural information between
industry, educators and the general public by providing facilities and
resources to support conferences, seminars, classes, and electronic
distribution of programs.
_____________________________________

Jeffrey L. Blanchard
Research Scientist
National Center for Genome Resources
2935 Rodeo Park Drive East
Santa Fe, NM 87505
tel: 505-995-4405
fax: 505-995-4432
http://www.ncgr.org/about/staff/jlb

---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Mon May  8 17:44:52 2000
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To: mol-evol@net.bio.net
Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: 8 May 2000 12:25:07 +0100
From: Nick Goldman <N.Goldman@zoo.cam.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: Parametric bootstrapping
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Vijay Aswani wrote:
> 
> A number of those who responded pointed me to the web site of Nick Goldman
> who had a manuscript and some very helpful procedural tips on the process.


  I should point out that the ms. in question (see
http://www.zoo.cam.ac.uk/zoostaff/goldman/tests) is about problems that
I and others contend exist with common uses of the Kishino-Hasegawa test
of phylogenies.  It is a lot more than simply a recipe for parametric
bootstrapping, although it does include some parametric bootstrap
examples.

  The ms. is "accepted pending minor revision"; these minor revisions
are under way, and the revised version of the ms. should be complete
this week and will be posted on the WWW site soon afterwards.  Anyone is
invited to e-mail me if they would like to be kept informed of progress.


> This brings me to my question: isn't using the hypothesis tree's topology
> and ML parameters to build the 100 datasets and then computing the best tree
> in each dataset a bit circular. Wouldn't the best tree in each case be the
> same tree whose topology and ML parameters were used to create the data sets
> in the first place? Perhaps the reason why L null and L ML differ so little
> is that the dataset was created from the parameters of the null tree.
> 
> If this is true, then the range of L ml - L null would be very small (since
> they would be almost the same) and almost every hypothesis tested would be
> rejected.

  It is not circular.  It is the strategy as used in most traditional
statistics, i.e. "if the null hypothesis were true, what would be the
distribution of my test statistic?".  When the null hypothesis contains
unknown parameters, you may have to estimate values for them in order to
work out the distribution in question.  So long as your method for
working out the distribution in question allows for the fact that such
parameters have been estimated (which is done by analyzing the simulated
data in the same way that you analyzed the original data), the procedure
is justified.

  Yes, often the distribution of "L_ml - L_null" is quite tight (small
range).  This will indeed often be because the ML tree for a simulated
data set will be very similar to the null hypothesis tree on which the
data were simulated.  This simply reflects the situation under the
assumption that the null hypothesis is true---and so it is appropriate
to reject the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative hypothesis
(which is that some other tree is correct).  You have to think very
carefully about what your hypotheses are before you test them!

  Nick Goldman


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
   Nick Goldman, Dept of Zoology,            tel: +44-(0)1223-336649
 Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, U.K.         fax: +44-(0)1223-336679
  N.Goldman@zoo.cam.ac.uk   http://www.zoo.cam.ac.uk/zoostaff/goldman
---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Tue May  9 00:10:28 2000
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Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: Mon, 08 May 2000 11:06:20 -0700
From: Guy Hoelzer <hoelzer@unr.edu>
Subject: Re: Parametric bootstrapping
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In article <8f6qu1$d8t$1@mercury.hgmp.mrc.ac.uk>, Nick Goldman
<N.Goldman@zoo.cam.ac.uk> wrote:

>   Yes, often the distribution of "L_ml - L_null" is quite tight (small
> range).  This will indeed often be because the ML tree for a simulated
> data set will be very similar to the null hypothesis tree on which the
> data were simulated.  This simply reflects the situation under the
> assumption that the null hypothesis is true---and so it is appropriate
> to reject the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative hypothesis
> (which is that some other tree is correct).  You have to think very
> carefully about what your hypotheses are before you test them!

This leads to a concern that I have about the use of LRTs and parametric
bootstrapping.  The limits of the null distribution are constrained
(sometimes greatly) by the assumed evolutionary model, making it easier to
reject the null by LRT.  Therefore, the type-I error rate will be larger
using this approach than if simpler models were assumed.  The question is:
does parametric bootstrapping lead to an unacceptibly high type-I error
rate?  Of course, this will only be a problem when the assumed
evolutionary model is not accurate, which is always the case to some
degree.  For example, if you estimate a TI/TV ratio from your data, and
assume the veracity of your estimate in your evolutionary model, it is
probably the case that the TRUE TI/TV ration was somewhat different than
the estimate for every branch in the TRUE tree.  Therefore, the null
distribution you create through repeated simulation is then guaranteed to
differ from the universe of potential likelihoods that could have been
explored during the evolution of your taxa.  The realized variation in
TI/TV ratios would surely broaden the TRUE null distribution, compared to
the one estimated through simulations, leading to inflated type-I error
rates in the analysis.  I am curious if there is any evidence relating to
this potential problem.

-- 
Guy Hoelzer
Department of Biology
University of Nevada Reno
Reno, NV  89557





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Tue May  9 23:53:25 2000
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Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: 9 May 2000 10:29:50 +0100
From: Nick Goldman <N.Goldman@zoo.cam.ac.uk>
Subject: Re: Parametric bootstrapping
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Guy Hoelzer wrote:
>  
> This leads to a concern that I have about the use of LRTs and parametric
> bootstrapping.  The limits of the null distribution are constrained
> (sometimes greatly) by the assumed evolutionary model, making it easier to
> reject the null by LRT.

The statistics (LRTs and bootstraps) do what you ask them to.  This
comment is leading to a discussion of the usefulness of models, which is
a different question to where this thread started.


>  Therefore, the type-I error rate will be larger
> using this approach than if simpler models were assumed.  The question is:
> does parametric bootstrapping lead to an unacceptibly high type-I error
> rate?  Of course, this will only be a problem when the assumed
> evolutionary model is not accurate, which is always the case to some
> degree.  For example, if you estimate a TI/TV ratio from your data, and
> assume the veracity of your estimate in your evolutionary model, it is
> probably the case that the TRUE TI/TV ration was somewhat different than
> the estimate for every branch in the TRUE tree.  Therefore, the null
> distribution you create through repeated simulation is then guaranteed to
> differ from the universe of potential likelihoods that could have been
> explored during the evolution of your taxa.  The realized variation in
> TI/TV ratios would surely broaden the TRUE null distribution, compared to
> the one estimated through simulations, leading to inflated type-I error
> rates in the analysis.  I am curious if there is any evidence relating to
> this potential problem.

I don't necessarily agree that the null distribution estimated by
simulation is *guaranteed* to differ from the universe of
distributions:  for example, if the distribution is independent of the
TI/TV ratio used when estimating it.  Regular (asymptotic) statistics
rely on the (asymptotic) independence of the null distribution and the
unknown true values of parameters 'within' it.  I do agree that the
effect you describe *could* exist, particularly for small (whatever that
means!) data sets.  And no, I don't know of any studies that have
investigated this potential effect in phylogenetic applications.

  Nick Goldman

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
   Nick Goldman, Dept of Zoology,            tel: +44-(0)1223-336649
 Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, U.K.         fax: +44-(0)1223-336679
  N.Goldman@zoo.cam.ac.uk   http://www.zoo.cam.ac.uk/zoostaff/goldman
---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Wed May 10 19:42:34 2000
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Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: 10 May 2000 18:49:40 +0100
From: Dimitris Stassinopoulos <dstassinopoulos@mail.arc.nasa.gov>
Subject: Workshop on Astrobiology at Alife7
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Dear Colleagues:

We are organizing a workshop on Astrobiology at Alife7.
The primary objective of this workshop is to
highlight some of the new areas of research that have emerged
form the new NASA Astrobiology initiative. We hope to have the
final list of presentations from individuals working in some of these
emerging areas of astrobiology soon.  Since we also believe that there
is great potential for a more permanent interactions between
Astrobiology
and the A-life community, and hope to foster such interaction through
this workshop, we solicit a small number of shorter
presentations of work that might benefit (or has already benefited)
both communities.

Please send an abstract of your proposed presentation to:

        stassi@groucho.arc.nasa.gov

If your submission is accepted, be prepared to provide us with
a short, camera-ready copy of your presentation.

A more complete description of the workshop has already been posted in
the Alife7 web-pages:

        http://alife7.alife.org/workshops.shtml#Astrobiology


If you would like to learn more about Astrobiology, please visit
the NASA web-sites on the subject:

        o   http://astrobiology.arc.nasa.gov

        o   http://cca.arc.nasa.gov

        o   http://nai.arc.nasa.gov


For details about camera-ready copy, please see:

        http://alife7.alife.org/workshops.shtml#SubmissionInstructions

We are looking forward to receiving your contributions as well as your
feedback and suggestions.



>From the workshop organizers,

Michael H. New (mike@groucho.arc.nasa.gov)
Andrew Pohorille (pohorill@raphael.arc.nasa.gov)
Dimitris Stassinopoulos (stassi@groucho.arc.nasa.gov)

NASA Ames Research Center
Exobiology Branch
Mail Stop 239-4
Moffett Field, CA 94035
USA


---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Sun May 14 17:51:12 2000
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Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: 14 May 2000 14:49:31 +0100
From: Thomas Buckley <tbuckley@duke.edu>
Subject: HIV molecular phylogenetics
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Hi,

I need an up to date reference for the latest on molecular phylogenetic
relationships among HIV subtypes.

Thanks,

Thomas

---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Tue May 16 16:53:00 2000
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To: mol-evol@net.bio.net
Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: 16 May 2000 16:48:43 +0100
From: Tim Littlewood <T.Littlewood@nhm.ac.uk>
Subject: 3 Yr Postdoctoral Position - NHM, London - please post
Message-Id: <20000516155252.885C717A62@mercury.hgmp.mrc.ac.uk>
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The enigma of the marine biodiversity focus in the Indo-West Pacific Ocean:
competing models assessed by the molecular phylogeny of a species-rich
molluscan clade

Applicants are sought for the position of Postdoctoral Research Assistant on
the above project, to be carried out in the new Molecular Biology Unit at
the Natural History Museum, London. The project will start some time this
year, to run for 3 years. Starting salary up to 25000 pounds. Please respond
before 31 May 2000 with CV (including statement of research interests and
starting availability) and e-mail addresses of two potential referees.

This project aims to throw new light on two of the most longstanding and
significant questions of evolutionary biology in the marine environment:
- How does speciation occur in widely dispersed organisms?
- How is the process related to the origin of the biodiversity focus of the
Indo-West Pacific (IWP)?

The study group, the littorinid genus Nodilittorina, is an eminently
suitable model for the majority of marine animals contributing to the IWP
diversity gradient; its 30 IWP species have a 4-week planktonic larval life
and exhibit a range of both widespread and narrowly endemic geographical
distributions. Samples of every known species of this genus are available,
and distributions are accurately known.  The application of molecular
phylogenetics to IWP biogeography is only just beginning, and previous
studies have been limited by restricted taxon sampling and poorly known
distributions. It is therefore proposed:
- For the first time, to generate a molecular phylogeny of a species-rich,
monophyletic clade in the IWP.
- To seek concordant patterns (e.g. sister-relations between Indian and
Pacific Ocean sub-clades, and central or peripheral location of derived
species) for comparison with the predictions of the four competing models of
IWP biogeography (centre of origin, of accumulation, of survival, or of
overlap).
- Estimates of age from molecular divergence will distinguish between
relatively recent (Pleistocene) and more ancient (Miocene or earlier)
species radiations.
- Further, the phylogeography of mitochondrial haplotypes will be examined
from throughout the range of two widely distributed species in order to
search for parallels between genetic and species diversity gradients, and
between geographical occurrence of derived alleles and species. Such
parallels will indicate how present-day determinants of gene flow (e.g.
ocean currents and island isolation) contributed to speciation in the past.

The ideal candidate will have skills in:
a. standard molecular biology techniques +/- gene sequencing skills
b. use of phylogenetic and population genetic software

Facilities at the NHM are excellent for molecular systematic/phylogenetic work.

For further details, contact:

Dr David Reid or Dr Tim Littlewood
Department of Zoology
The Natural History Museum
Cromwell Road
London SW7 5BD
United Kingdom

http://www.nhm.ac.uk

Tel:  +44 (0) 20 7942 5051 or 5742
Fax: +44 (0) 20 7942 5054

E-mail: dgr@nhm.ac.uk  or: t.littlewood@nhm.ac.uk
_____________________________________

D.T.J. Littlewood
Department of Zoology
The Natural History Museum
Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD
UK

tel: +44 (0)207 942 5742 (office)  5008 (lab - you'll be lucky)
fax: +44 (0)207 942 5151
_____________________________________

---





From owner-mol-evol@hgmp.mrc.ac.uk  Thu May 18 00:07:37 2000
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Newsgroups: bionet.molbio.evolution
Date: Wed, 17 May 2000 15:44:49 +0200
From: Fernando Gonzalez Candelas <fernando.gonzalez@uv.es>
Subject: First announcement. Workshop EVOLUTION, FROM MOLECULES TO ECOSYSTEMS
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Dear colleagues,

We are pleased to invite you to attend and participate in the workshop
entitled Evolution:  From molecules to ecosystems that will be held
2-4 November 2000 in Valencia (Spain) as part of the activities
commemorating the fifth centennial of the University of Valencia and the
launching of  the Cavanilles Institute for Biodiversity and Evolutionary
Biology. The goal of the workshop will be to reflect on the present and
foreseeable future of evolutionary theory in the age of genomics,
development, and complex systems.

Themes and Topics

1. Behavior and evolution
 2. Coevolution
 3. Comparative genomics
 4. Evolution and development
 5. Evolution at the organismic level and biodiversity
 6. Evolutionary ecology
 7. Evolution of life history traits
 8. Evolution of parasites
 9. Evolution of sex
10. Experimental evolution
11. Extinctions
12. Human evolution
13. Impact of Darwinism
14. Macroevolution
15. Molecular ecology
16. Molecular evolution
17. Origins and the roots of life
18. Phylogenetic analysis of major taxonomic groups
19. Phylogenetics and the comparative method
20. Speciation

Speakers and invited participants include:

M. Aguade (Spain), F. J. Ayala (USA), G. Barbujani (Italy), J.
Bertranpetit (Spain), G.M. Burghardt (USA),   A. Caballero (Spain), P.
Calow (UK), S. Carroll (USA),  L. Chao (USA), L. De Meester (Belgium),
D.C. Dennett (USA), D. Erwin (USA), A. Fontdevila (Spain),  P. Forterre
(France), A. Garcia Bellido (Spain), C. Herrera (Spain), G.M. Hewitt
(UK), D.M. Hillis (USA), P. Holland (UK), C.E. King (USA), S. Kresovich
(USA), W. Lampert (Germany), A. Lazcano (Mexico), R.E. Lenski (USA),
M. Lynch (USA), A. Mayer (Germany), R. Michod (USA), C. Mitter (USA), N.
Moran (USA), H. Ochman (USA), T. Ohta (Japan), A.H. Patterson (USA), D.
Pinero (Mexico),  T.W. Snell (USA), S.J. Shettleworth (Canada),  R.
Thornhill (USA), M. Tibayrenc (France), R. Zardoya (Spain).

Registration

The workshop fee is 35000 ptas (210 euro), and includes registration,
lunch, and  refreshments served during coffee breaks at the venue. We
encourage you to visit our web page for further information and on-line
registration at:
http://www.uv.es/cavanilles/evo2000

Attendance to the workshop will be limited to 180 participants.
Selection, if necessary, will follow a first come, first served rule.

Deadline for registration : 1 July 2000

Financial aid

Support will be given where possible to a limited number of students
attending the workshop.  Two forms of financial aid will be offered, a
fee waiver, and a fee waiver plus a fixed sum to cover  travel
expenses.  Students must submit: 1) evidence that they are registered as
a full-time student in an accredited program, such us an enrollment
certificate or supporting letter from the university, department or
academic advisor, 2) a short CV describing interests and achievements in
the subject area of the workshop.  It is important that applications be
submitted as soon as possible in order to receive prompt consideration
by the Organizing Committee.


--
*******************************************************
Dr. Fernando Gonzalez Candelas                       Phone: (+34) 963 983
653
Instituto Cavanilles de Biodiversidad y Biologia Evolutiva
Dept. de Genetica / Servei de Bioinformatica        FAX   : (+34) 963 983
670
Universitat de Valencia
Apartado de Correos 22085
E-46071 Valencia SPAIN                        e-mail:
Fernando.Gonzalez@uv.es
*******************************************************





