From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Thu Dec 01 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!HEMEROTECA.ICFES.GOV.CO!internet From: internet@HEMEROTECA.ICFES.GOV.CO (Usuarios de Internet) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Offering a new Eco-Genetics Institute in Amazonian Biodiversity Date: 1 Dec 1994 08:32:22 -0800 Organization: BIOSCI International Newsgroups for Molecular Biology Lines: 40 Sender: daemon@net.bio.net Distribution: world Message-ID: Dear Sir or Lady: This is a NEWS-Letter to inform you of the existance of a brand new INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGICAL-GENETICS TO STUDY THE AMAZONIAN=20 BIODIVERSITY . For further information write=20 to: Dr. Hugo Hoenigsberg =09 Instituto de Genetica-Ecologica y Biodiversidad Amazonica Cra.4 No.71-69 Bogota D.C.COLOMBIA. FAX: 612 7369 You can sent your C.V.to our personal address above. We are considering=20 applications to fill posts as research scientific staff members.=20 Evolutionary-Biologists, geneticists,ecologists, systematist,=20 botanists,zoologists, mathematicians and other Ph.D. individuals=20 interested in neo-tropical biological research with at least 10 years of=20 research experience preferably, but not exclusively, in the trop=A1cs, and= =20 about 10 published scientific papers will be considered. This new=20 Institute will study Amazonian biodiversity. Although its main purpose is= =20 research it will by inclination help, not only to preserve the Amazonian=20 biodiversity , but also to diseminate the gospel of international=20 management of the most wonderful world natural reserve for which it is=20 worth to dedicate ones life. There will also be graduate degrees to be=20 dealt with. For academic life within the Institute, please contact=20 the Rector of the Amazonian University as follows: =20 Dr. Ernesto Fajardo Universidad de la Amazonia Florencia, Caqueta Colombia. FAX: (988 35) 8231 Florencia is the capital of the State of Caqueta, and Caqueta is one of=20 the three Amazonian States of Colombia. We will be working closely with=20 Peruvian and Brazilian scientist interested in Amazonian biodiversity.=20 Our Central offices and research labs will be in Florencia's souroundings. = =20 Hoping to see you soon=20 Yours truly, =20 =20 Hugo Hoenigsberg From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Thu Dec 01 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!gatech!howland.reston.ans.net!pipex!uunet!utcsri!newsflash.concordia.ca!pavo.concordia.ca!dl_tato From: dl_tato@pavo.concordia.ca (DAN THE FUNKY MOOSE MAN) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Request: info on fresh water toxicology (sp?) Date: 2 Dec 1994 10:35 -0500 Organization: Concordia University Lines: 19 Distribution: world Message-ID: <2DEC199410353741@pavo.concordia.ca> NNTP-Posting-Host: pavo2.concordia.ca News-Software: VAX/VMS VNEWS 1.41 Hello, is there anyone aut there that can lead me to some books/articles or general info on how high concintrations of salt due to polution affects fresh water organisms? Thank U for anything U can offer! _--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--_ | ____ __ __ | | | / __ \ / | /\ / / |Cyberspace...... | | / / | | / _ | / _\ / / | Sooner or later it'll be| | / / / / / /_|| / / \\_/ / (_\_|___|_/_)| in U'r face!............ | | / /__/ / / ---|| / / \ / (o o) | .......ALL DAY!......... | |/______/ /_/ ||/_/ \/ \ / |............EVERYDAY!... | | Da MoOsE __m___O___m__| -MoOsE mYsTeR| | E-mail: dl_tato@pavo.concordia.ca | | -__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__--__- From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Fri Dec 02 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!gatech!swrinde!pipex!sunsite.doc.ic.ac.uk!qmw!warwick!msudo From: msudo@csv.warwick.ac.uk (Mr P A Salter) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: population genetics Date: 3 Dec 1994 15:53:52 -0000 Organization: Computing Services, University of Warwick, UK Lines: 3 Distribution: world Message-ID: <1994Dec3.155136@csv.warwick.ac.uk> NNTP-Posting-Host: comfrey.csv.warwick.ac.uk Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Keywords: UK Corophium volutator A quick question: Does anyone know anything about the pop. genetics of Corophium in the UK or elsewhere? Please reply to BT2268@qmw.ac.uk From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Sat Dec 03 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!cc.UManitoba.CA!gordonr From: gordonr@cc.UManitoba.CA (Richard Gordon) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: AIDS and Math Date: 4 Dec 1994 11:20:33 -0800 Organization: BIOSCI International Newsgroups for Molecular Biology Lines: 59 Sender: daemon@net.bio.net Distribution: world Message-ID: References: <3blg1p$hm6@yoda.Syntex.Com> NNTP-Posting-Host: net.bio.net I went through these AIDS & condoms calculations in detail in: Gordon, R. (1989). A critical review of the physics and statistics of condoms and their role in individual versus societal survival of the AIDS epidemic. J. Sex & Marital Therapy 15(1), 5-30. -Dick Gordon, U. Manitoba[Dec4,94] On Thu, 1 Dec 1994 seth.michelson@syntex.com wrote: > > In article <3bkg7h$p2b@newsbf01.news.aol.com>, writes: > > The probability of failure seems high to me but if you say 10% I'll buy it. > The calculation goes as follows: > > The chance of failing is 10%. Therefore, the chance of not failing is 90%. > Therefore, the chance of not failining in two indepdent samples is 81% (.9 X > 9). Therefore the chance of failing is 19%. the general model is as follows: > > > 1 - (1 - p)**N > > where p is the failure rate of a single try, > (1-p) the success rate of a single try > (1-p)**N the chance of succeeding after N tries > 1 - (1-p)**N the chance of failing after N tries. > > See how (1 - p) < 1 goes to zero as N goes to infinity? Says after a large > number of tries you will blow your head off! > > > SGM > > > > > In need of help from a statistician or mathematician familiar > > with probability. > > > > This regards AIDS and the probability figures educators are > > putting out on the failure rate of condom use (10% most > > references, but up to 20% some believe). > > Seems to me that 10% failure probability figure is for one use > > only, or one event only. If I remember my differential calculus > > (30yrs ago), seems that as the number of events increase, > > probability will approach 100%. > > Think of a revolver with a cylinder holding 10 rounds. You spin > > the cylinder once, point it at your head and fire. Risk at that > > point is 10%. But how about the subsequent spins and firings? If > > you keep spinning and firing, sooner or later you will blow your > > head off. > > Would be interested in knowing how to figure the risk for 10 > > events, 20 events, 50 events, etc. Plus would like to know how to > > figure the number of events necessary to reach 50% risk, 90% risk, > > etc. > > > > TNX, Bob Wymer, not good at math. > > > From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Sat Dec 03 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!cc.UManitoba.CA!gordonr From: gordonr@cc.UManitoba.CA (Richard Gordon) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: theoretical biology Date: 4 Dec 1994 11:25:04 -0800 Organization: BIOSCI International Newsgroups for Molecular Biology Lines: 56 Sender: daemon@net.bio.net Distribution: world Message-ID: References: <3blg1p$hm6@yoda.Syntex.Com> NNTP-Posting-Host: net.bio.net International organization of theoretical biologists? Dear Colleague: We have been running a small Canadian Society Theoretical Biology (CSTB) for the past decade which has been attracting 1/3 international memberships. We charge only Can$25/yr for membership. We are at a critical juncture, needing new people to take active participation. With the cost of international travel and the lure of specialty conferences, it is difficult for us to get together physically. Yet there is a need for developing an intellectual community of like-minded scientists. Theoretical biologists are in a difficult position right now, perhaps analogous to theoretical physicists before quantum mechanics. There is great potential; we know the experimentalists need us; but in general they don't know that, and we have no niche. We think it is time to rethink whether the CSTB should continue to identify itself as a Canadian organisation, or whether we should become more explicitly international. It seems that our common bond is not Canadian residency, but rather a common international interest in theoretical biology and a desire to communicate. The services we have been able to offer to our members include a Newsletter, reduced rate subscriptions to the Journal of Biological Systems, and an Email network. We need to redefine our role, keeping in mind that there already exist several other organisations with overlapping interests, such as the SMB (Society for Mathematical Biology). The distinction between theoretical biology and mathematical biology is discussed in: Gordon, R. (1993). Careers in theoretical biology. Carolina Tips 56(3), 9-11. which might be a good point for beginning our deliberations. If you would like a copy of this just send a request to Dick Gordon at GordonR@cc.UManitoba.ca You are all encouraged to contribute to our discussion, whether or not you are a member of CSTB at the present time. Please send your comments to CSTB@biome.bio.ns.ca so that we can continue this discussion. To join, send the message subscribe cstb to Majordomo@biome.bio.ns.ca Dick Gordon, CSTB President Department of Radiology, University of Manitoba Room ON104, Health Sciences Centre, 820 Sherbrook Street Winnipeg, MB R3A 1R9 Canada Phone: (204) 787-1076, Fax: (204) 783-8565, E-mail: GordonR@cc.UManitoba.ca Bill Silvert, CSTB Secretary/Treasurer Habitat Ecology Division (HED), Bedford Inst. of Oceanography P. O. Box 1006, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, CANADA B2Y 4A2. Tel. (902)426-1577 InterNet Address: silvert@biome.bio.ns.ca Fax (902)426-2256 HED runs a WWW server at URL=http://biome.bio.dfo.ca From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Sun Dec 04 22:00:00 1994 Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio,comp.theory.cell-automata,comp.ai.alife Path: biosci!daresbury!trane.uninett.no!sunic!pipex!howland.reston.ans.net!math.ohio-state.edu!uwm.edu!caen!news.tc.cornell.edu!travelers.mail.cornell.edu!newstand.syr.edu!galileo.cc.rochester.edu!prodigal.psych.rochester.edu!stevens From: stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu (Greg Stevens) Subject: Simulated Environments Parameter Question Message-ID: <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> Sender: news@galileo.cc.rochester.edu Nntp-Posting-Host: prodigal.psych.rochester.edu Organization: University of Rochester - Rochester, New York Date: Mon, 5 Dec 94 20:54:50 GMT Lines: 35 Xref: biosci bionet.population-bio:936 comp.theory.cell-automata:1667 comp.ai.alife:1431 Okay, I have a simple environment which has a world which is a matrix of integers WORLD-SIZE by WORLD_SIZE, which at each position can either have an agent, a bit of food or blankness. Agents move around and when they hit a piece of food their energy gets incremented by FOOD_VAL, otherwise every move costs them 1 energy point (energy isa decremented every action). If ENERGY gets above (INITIAL_ENERGY + REPROD_THRESH) then it reproduces and the energy is lowered again to (REPROD_THRESH). New food apears on the matrix at a rate of REGEN_RATE for each space. Now, I have found that: If REGEN_RATE is too low, trhey all starve and don't reproduce. If REGEN_RATE is too high, they al;l reproduce and there is no selection pressure for good food-searching strategies (movenent is controlled by the chromosome). If INITIAL_AGENT_NUM is too high with respect to WORLD_SIZE, they "over-graze" and starve. If REPROD_THRESH is too big, not enough reproduce and if it is too small too many reproduce. Etc. Does anyone know of any hints, other than methodical trial and error, for discovering good combinations of values for these parameters? Greg Stevens stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Mon Dec 05 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!SUN1.HUBCENTRLHS.EDU!clhawn From: clhawn@SUN1.HUBCENTRLHS.EDU (Chad L Hawn) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: INFORMATION Date: 6 Dec 1994 07:19:54 -0800 Organization: BIOSCI International Newsgroups for Molecular Biology Lines: 10 Sender: daemon@net.bio.net Distribution: world Message-ID: NNTP-Posting-Host: net.bio.net To whom it may concern, We are seniors at Central High School and we are doing a project on population growth. We would like to know if you had any information on this particular subject,and if so would you let us use it in our project. Any other information you could provide would be helpful. Thank you. Chad Hawn clhawn Preston Hamby pwhamby From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Mon Dec 05 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!galaxy.ucr.edu!library.ucla.edu!agate!news.Stanford.EDU!Xenon.Stanford.EDU!hays From: hays@Xenon.Stanford.EDU (Christopher A. Hays) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio,comp.theory.cell-automata,comp.ai.alife Subject: Re: Simulated Environments Parameter Question Date: 6 Dec 1994 16:01:55 GMT Organization: Computer Science Department, Stanford University. Lines: 41 Distribution: inet Message-ID: <3c21tj$4ae@Radon.Stanford.EDU> References: <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> NNTP-Posting-Host: xenon.stanford.edu Keywords: simulation parameter choice closed universe Xref: biosci bionet.population-bio:939 comp.theory.cell-automata:1673 comp.ai.alife:1439 In article <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu>, Greg Stevens wrote: >New food appears on the matrix at a rate of REGEN_RATE for each space. >If REGEN_RATE is too low, they all starve and don't reproduce. >If REGEN_RATE is too high, they all reproduce and there is no selection >pressure for good food-searching strategies (movement is controlled by >the chromosome). >Does anyone know of any hints, other than methodical trial and error, >for discovering good combinations of values for these parameters? I ran into the same problem with setting a food growth rate. Picking a rate which would cause neither starvation/extinction nor a massive food glut was simply too difficult. The "correct" value range (given settings of the other parameters) was far too thin. I ended up adding a couple of features which significantly widened the range of "correct" values. 1. Food saturation level In my simulation, I would not allow food to grow if more than X percent of the world was already covered. It would probably make more sense to implement this as a local property of food growth in a cell (can't grow if surrounded by too much other food) 2. Closed universe The basic problem is that energy leaves the world via the simulated creatures and enters the world via the growth of food. If a food growth rate is chosen manually, then you are essentially trying to guess how quickly energy will be leaving the system, and match it. Capping the food growth at the actual rate of energy usage forces this to be a closed universe model, and the total energy available to the creatures can neither diminish to zero nor grow out of control. Again, it would probably make more sense to implement local energy-transfer rules rather than a global energy-management system, but heck, it worked. Without these two features, I was getting nowhere. After I added them, it was quite easy to evolve reasonable foraging behavior from randomly generated behaviors. (But, yes, after parthenogenesis stumbled across minimally survivable behavior, I started hand-tweaking the food saturation level downward to make life more difficult and increase the evolutionary pressure. I'm not *that* patient) From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Mon Dec 05 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!agate!library.ucla.edu!csulb.edu!nic-nac.CSU.net!charnel.ecst.csuchico.edu!waldorf.csc.calpoly.edu!decwrl!tribune.usask.ca!quartz.ucs.ualberta.ca!NoFC.Forestry.CA!paris!mgrandm From: mgrandm@mdo.nofc.forestry.ca (Mike Grandmaison) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Further to Jack Pine Budworm Symposium - January 1995 Date: 6 Dec 1994 15:14:29 GMT Organization: Manitoba District Office, Northwest Region, Canadian Forest Service Lines: 182 Distribution: world Message-ID: <3c1v4l$hq5@news.nofc.forestry.ca> Reply-To: mgrandm@mdo.nofc.forestry.ca NNTP-Posting-Host: paris.mdo.nofc.forestry.ca Keywords: Jack pine budworm, jack pine, symposium Further to: Jack Pine Budworm Symposium - January 1995 This is the information promised for November: Jack Pine Budworm Symposium January 23-26, 1995 The Westin Hotel Two Lombard Place Winnipeg, Manitoba.Canada Why? Nine years ago a symposium on jack pine budworm biology and management was held in Winnipeg. The resulting publication listed several key issues that should be addressed to improve management of this pest. How far have we come? At a meeting in Sault Ste. Marie last year there was consensus that there should be another symposium to assess progress, discuss new developments and update the list developed in 1986. The symposium is now largely organized with several key speakers committed to making presentations, some moderating workshops, and others presenting information in the more informal workshops. There is ample room on the program for workshop presentations so that all with an interest in the jack pine budworm management will have an opportunity to voice their views. This is an invitation to attend the meeting and participate. The program as it now stands is included in this package. Where? Yes Winnipeg in January! Although it can be cold we have tried to compensate for this with meeting facilities at the prestigious Westin Hotel in Winnipeg at a great price. Many restaurants and businesses in the city core are connected to the Westin by environmentally controlled walkways. The hardy can enjoy cross country skiing on the historic waterways which run close to the Westin. The Forks, an award winning project which houses several unique restaurants, markets, shops and museums, is a short walk from the Westin. When? Registration and ice breaker: Monday, January 23, 1995, 7:30 pm. On the two days following the program runs from 8:30 am to 5:00 pm with breaks for a catered lunch and coffee/juice both mornings and afternoons. On Thursday, the meeting goes till noon with coffee/juice break. Registration: $CDN 80.00 if received by January 12, 1995; $CDN 100.00 after Jan 12. Please mail completed forms to M. Grandmaison, Canadian Forest Service, 200-180 Main St. Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3C 1A6. (Ph 204 983-7027) FAX 204 983- 8792 Hotel Reservations: $CDN 62 + tax sing. or dbl./night Please register with the hotel directly by January 12 to get the preferred price (Card enclosed). Local Arrangements: Michel Grandmaison (Ph 204 983 7027) Program: Jan Volney (Ph 403 435 7329) (FAX 403 435 7359) JACK PINE BUDWORM SYMPOSIUM PROGRAM Day O January 23, 1995 Registration and Icebreaker Day I January 24, 1995 Session 1. Welcome and Key Note Addresses Dr. Y. Hardy, ADM, Canadian Forest Service: Canadian research perspectives Dr. M. Shoesmith, ADM, Manitoba Natural Resources: Pest management in Manitoba Dr. W.J. Mattson, Insect Ecologist, USDA Forest Service: Budworm ecology & evolution (Moderator: J. Volney) Session 2. Regional Perspectives & Histories Presentations from Michigan (Bob Heyd), Wisconsin (Shane Weber), Minnesota (Albers), Ontario (Gord Howse), Prairies (Keith Knowles & Jan Volney) Suppression work (Meating). (Moderator: V. Nealis) Session 3. Research Presentations Population dynamics (Nealis, McCullough, Volney) Impacts (McCullough, Heyd, Mallett, Volney) Sampling & Monitoring (Lomic et al., Pines et al.) Decision Support (Power, Connors). (Moderator: D. McCullough ) Session 4.Research Presentations G.I.S. Applications (Hall) Policy (Westwood, Sapio, Connor, Scarr) Economic concerns, wood supply (White) Non-timber concerns (Boxall, McKinney) (Moderator: R. Westwood) Day II January 25, 1995 Session 5. Workshop on Population Measurements and Monitoring Critical population measurements, need for other strategic studies. Population measurements (Life stages, statistical designs, biological concerns) Use of Pheromones (Formulations, traps, strategies) Impacts (Biophysical), Plot networks (Moderator: J. Volney) Session 6. Workshop on Control Options Suppression (Chemicals, BT Trichogramma etc) Silvicultural Approach Harvesting Conservation of predators and parasitoids (Moderator: G. Howse) Day III January 26, 1995 Final Session. Workshop wrapup & consensus on important issues (Panel to moderate) Proceedings to be published and distributed to participants: Spring 1995 REGISTRATION FORM JACK PINE BUDWORM SYMPOSIUM January 23-26, 1995 The Westin Hotel Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada NAME*........................................................................... AGENCY*......................................................................... ADDRESS......................................................................... CITY........................................PROV./STATE......................... COUNTRY.....................................POSTAL CODE......................... PHONE.......................................FAX................................. *As it should appear on name tag REGISTRATION FEE (BEFORE 12 JAN. '95) $CDN 80.00..............check (AFTER 12 JAN. '95) $CDN 100.00..............check Please make cheque or money order payable in Canadian Funds to: JACK PINE BUDWORM SYMPOSIUM Please mail the completed form to: Mike Grandmaison Canadian Forest Service 200 - 180 Main Street Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada R3C 1A6 From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Mon Dec 05 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!daresbury!sunsite.doc.ic.ac.uk!uknet!pipex!swrinde!cs.utexas.edu!geraldo.cc.utexas.edu!slip-c-9.ots.utexas.edu!nels From: nelson guda Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: summer field assistants needed for Costa Rica Date: 6 Dec 1994 21:02:06 GMT Organization: UT Austin Lines: 52 Distribution: world Message-ID: <3c2jge$3j@geraldo.cc.utexas.edu> NNTP-Posting-Host: slip-c-9.ots.utexas.edu X-UserAgent: Version 1.1.3 X-XXMessage-ID: X-XXDate: Tue, 6 Dec 94 21:03:51 GMT Field assistants wanted for summer research in Costa Rica. What's in it for me: I am a graduate student in Zoology, studying the behavioral ecology of tree frogs in Corcovado National Park, Costa Rica. I am looking for one or two self-motivated undergraduate students to help me with my research next summer. Most of the work is at night, but the frogs I work on are explosive breeders so there will not be work every night. When there is work there will be quite a bit. What's in it for you: There will be ample time to pursue an independent project, for which you could get research credit through your university. The project could be either during the day or at night, and on any topic that can be studied in a lowland rainforest. I can help with the ideas and/or design of a project. My specialy is in herps, ecology and behaviour, but there are several people at the station with other areas of interest that could help in fields that I'm not familiar with (insects, plants). This is a great way to get field experience in the tropics for those interested in going on to graduate school. I might be able to help with some of the travel expenses, but that depends entirely on what grants I get funded. You should plan on funding most of the summer independently. Costs vary, but as an assistant your costs will be lower than either a tourist or a full researcher (no research fees). The place: Corcovado National Park is the largest tract of lowland rainforest left in Central America. Because it is isolated and remote, the park contains large, healthy populations of most of the Central American megafauna (Jaguars and five other species of cat, tapirs, peccaries, four species of monkeys, and many more) and has some of the most pristine forests left on the face of the earth. Requirements: Patience. Good sence of humor. Willingness to live in a remote area in semi-primitive conditions. I don't require any field research experience, however I prefer people with experience in the outdoors (backpacking, or whatever). Must be in reasonably good physical condition. Prefer people with a good knowledge of biology, but willing to make exceptions for people who are very motivated. What to do: Send me e-mail at: NELS@UTS.CC.UTEXAS.EDU My name is Nelson Guda. You can also reach me through normal mail at: Department of Zoology University of Texas, Austin Austin, TX 78712 From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 06 22:00:00 1994 Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!gatech!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!zip.eecs.umich.edu!caen!hearst.acc.Virginia.EDU!murdoch!darwin.clas.Virginia.EDU!mgk From: mgk@darwin.clas.Virginia.EDU (Mahlon G. Kelly) Subject: Re: INFORMATION Message-ID: Sender: usenet@murdoch.acc.Virginia.EDU Organization: uva References: Date: Wed, 7 Dec 1994 03:20:37 GMT Lines: 26 clhawn@SUN1.HUBCENTRLHS.EDU writes: > To whom it may concern, > > We are seniors at Central High School and we are doing a project > on population growth. We would like to know if you had any > information on this particular subject,and if so would you let > us use it in our project. Any other information you could provide > would be helpful. Thank you. > > Chad Hawn clhawn > Preston Hamby pwhamby There are many, many books written on this subject. It would help if you could limit your question so that a short and meaningful answer can be given. Talk to your HS libriarian, a science teacher, or parents. Sorry to sound like a grouchy old fart, but I used to receive about 100 questions like this each year. They really cannot be answered. Faculty call them "Please tell me everything you know about anything" questions. It's frustrating. One would like to help, but there's little that one can say. -- Associate Professor (Emeritus) University of Virginia mgk@darwin.clas.virginia.edu From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 06 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!daresbury!bioftp.unibas.ch!citi2.fr!jussieu.fr!unilim.fr!cict.fr!reseau.cict.fr!fourcass From: fourcass@cict.fr (Vincent Fourcassie) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: New group in Behavioural-Ecology Date: 07 Dec 1994 08:56:19 GMT Organization: Centre Interuniversitaire de Calcul de Toulouse Lines: 21 Message-ID: References: NNTP-Posting-Host: corail.cict.fr In-reply-to: anabelaj@darwin.uio.no's message of Tue, 22 Nov 1994 20:44:15 +0100 In article anabelaj@darwin.uio.no (Anabela Jensen) writes: Is somebody willing to start an interesse group in Behavioural-Ecology and/or animal behaviour? ------------- Why creating a newsgroup on Behavioural Ecology? There is already a group devoted to the study of animal behaviour: sci.bio.ethology and I see no reasons why discussions on behavioural ecology could not be held on that group.... -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Vincent FOURCASSIE Laboratoire d'Ethologie et Psychologie Animale Universite Paul Sabatier F- 31062 Toulouse cedex Tel: 61 55 62 29 Email: fourcass@CICT.FR --------------------------------------------------------------------- From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Wed Dec 07 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!newshost.lanl.gov!ncar!gatech!howland.reston.ans.net!pipex!uunet!icmv.intellicorp.com!treitel From: treitel@bones (Richard Treitel) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio,comp.theory.cell-automata,comp.ai.alife Subject: Re: Simulated Environments Parameter Question Date: 8 Dec 1994 12:13:22 -0800 Organization: IntelliCorp, Mountain View CA. Lines: 22 Sender: treitel@bones.intellicorp.com Distribution: world Message-ID: <3c7pd2$koo@bones.intellicorp.com> References: <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> Reply-To: treitel@intellicorp.com NNTP-Posting-Host: bones.intellicorp.com Xref: biosci bionet.population-bio:947 comp.theory.cell-automata:1715 comp.ai.alife:1455 In article <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu>, stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu (Greg Stevens) writes: [...] |> If ENERGY gets above (INITIAL_ENERGY + REPROD_THRESH) then it reproduces |> and the energy is lowered again to (REPROD_THRESH). |> |> New food apears on the matrix at a rate of REGEN_RATE for each space. |> |> Now, I have found that: |> |> If REGEN_RATE is too low, they all starve and don't reproduce. |> If REGEN_RATE is too high, they all reproduce What I did was make REPROD_THRESH an evolvable parameter of each critter, and make them burn some energy even when not moving, so that if the food ran low, some of them would die. Pretty soon they figured out how long to wait before having kids, and how to avoid low-birth- weight babies and so on. -- Richard If my employer holds these views, it hasn't told me. From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Thu Dec 08 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!paperboy.osf.org!think.com!spdcc!das-news2.harvard.edu!das-news!hiebeler From: hiebeler@husc.harvard.edu (Dave Hiebeler) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio,comp.theory.cell-automata,comp.ai.alife Subject: Re: Simulated Environments Parameter Question Date: 09 Dec 1994 01:44:48 GMT Organization: Santa Fe Institute, and Thinking Machines Corp. Lines: 57 Distribution: world Message-ID: References: <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> NNTP-Posting-Host: hershey.harvard.edu In-reply-to: stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu's message of Mon, 5 Dec 94 20:54:50 GMT Xref: biosci bionet.population-bio:948 comp.theory.cell-automata:1717 comp.ai.alife:1458 In article <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu (Greg Stevens) writes: > Agents move around and when they hit a piece of food their energy gets > incremented by FOOD_VAL, [etc.] > > If REGEN_RATE is too low, trhey all starve and don't reproduce. > If REGEN_RATE is too high, they all reproduce and there is no selection > pressure for good food-searching strategies > > Does anyone know of any hints, other than methodical trial and error, > for discovering good combinations of values for these parameters? What are the goals of the simulation? Are you just trying to get stable populations? Something biologically plausible? I did some simulations earlier this year which were somewhat similar to what you described. I was interested in looking at plant and herbivore population dynamics. The first few times I tried the simulation, the herbivores ate all the plants and everything then died. (This is not biologically implausible, by the way -- see the classic book "The Struggle for Existence" by Gause, 1934). It only took me about an hour of tuning to get stable dynamics. One difference is that in my simulation the "food" (plants) were not deposited randomly down on the grid; new plants appeared when the current ones decided to reproduce (using age-based life-history probability tables -- although after learning something more about plants I realize I should have used size-based tables). And in fact the new plants were deposited fairly near the parent. This gave the simulation more spatial structure and heterogeneity. I got lots of local extinctions in different parts of the lattice, but global extinctions were less common (how much less common depended on the size of the lattice). Also, as has been pointed out by others here, evolution is a good way to make things more stable. Just for kicks one day (actually to see if my simulation platform would allow me to easily do it) I modified my simulation to allow the herbivores to evolve their reproductive life-history tables, to see what would happen. I found that it made the populations more stable (the oscillations were smaller). I didn't do much with that since it wasn't what I was interested in. (I was interested in probability extinctions versus lattice size, and in how well I could fit ODE's to such spatial models). Even without evolution, having heterogeneous populations may help to stabilize things (I'm not sure, but from your article it sounds like all your creatures share the same set of parameters, e.g. REPROD_THRESH). Anyway, heterogeneity (and evolution on top of that) may give you more stability, if that's what you're looking for. Of course you may start with heterogeneity but then a superior competitor makes everything else go extinct. That will then lead you to the question "how/when/why may a population maintain diversity?" If you answer that one, please let me know. :-) -- Dave Hiebeler hiebeler@husc.harvard.edu ~{:#DZ4fV*<:#,LlQDHt1HAZ~} Graduate student in Applied Math / Ecology, Harvard University From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Thu Dec 08 22:00:00 1994 Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio,comp.theory.cell-automata,comp.ai.alife Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!news.kei.com!ub!galileo.cc.rochester.edu!prodigal.psych.rochester.edu!stevens From: stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu (Greg Stevens) Subject: Re: Simulated Environments Parameter Question Message-ID: <1994Dec9.170002.11514@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> Sender: news@galileo.cc.rochester.edu Nntp-Posting-Host: prodigal.psych.rochester.edu Organization: University of Rochester - Rochester, New York References: <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> Date: Fri, 9 Dec 94 17:00:02 GMT Lines: 58 Xref: biosci bionet.population-bio:950 comp.theory.cell-automata:1756 comp.ai.alife:1467 In hiebeler@husc.harvard.edu (Dave Hiebeler) writes: >In article <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu (Greg Stevens) writes: >>[problems with REGEN_RATE, REPROD_THRESH, WORLD_SIZE, etc.] >> Does anyone know of any hints, other than methodical trial and error, >> for discovering good combinations of values for these parameters? > What are the goals of the simulation? Are you just trying to get >stable populations? Something biologically plausible? Well, I wantto get populations stable enough to evolve. Right now the chromosome contains two factors. First, the food-searching strategy of the agents is controlled by a little neural net, which takes as input the angle and distance of nearest food (and its own previous output) and (through 7 hidden units) outputs a 2-unit, binary coded output for movement (00 halt, 01 turn right, 10 turn left, 11 forward). This part of the expierment was inspired by on done by Elman and Nolfi where they started off with the chromosom controling thr weights, didn't have learning of any kind, (therefore in initial generations having random search patterns), and saw that through time more and more efficient strategies for getting food were evolved (where fitenss was # foods collected). I'm doing a spin-odd on that, except I have an additional gene and the following question I want to ask: "Can it be computationally shown that there is an evolutionary benefit to there being a weaning period during which the child learns from the parent's behaviors?" The additional gene controls the length-in-time-steps of the weaning period, and when a new agent is born, the counter moves through that many time steps and for that intercval, the agent copies the parent's movements and uses a supervised learning algorithm to hange weights. After that, no learning takes place. I want to see if, when length-of-weaning-period is included in the chromosome, there is evolutionary pressure on the length of the weaning period. But in order to do this, I want the buggers to reproduce for enough generations for them to evolve. >.... One >difference is that in my simulation the "food" (plants) were not >deposited randomly down on the grid; new plants appeared when the >current ones decided to reproduce (using age-based life-history >probability tables -- although after learning something more about >plants I realize I should have used size-based tables). And in fact >the new plants were deposited fairly near the parent. This gave the >simulation more spatial structure and heterogeneity. I got lots of >local extinctions in different parts of the lattice, but global >extinctions were less common (how much less common depended on the >size of the lattice). This is interesting and sounds like something I may want to try -- I've actually considered it at one point already. Greg Stevens stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Fri Dec 09 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!agate!howland.reston.ans.net!gatech!swiss.ans.net!newstf01.news.aol.com!newsbf01.news.aol.com!not-for-mail From: wymermd@aol.com (Wymermd) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: AIDS and Math Date: 10 Dec 1994 16:40:11 -0500 Organization: America Online, Inc. (1-800-827-6364) Lines: 46 Sender: news@newsbf01.news.aol.com Message-ID: <3cd77r$bdh@newsbf01.news.aol.com> References: References: , gordonr@cc.UManitoba.CA (Richard Gordon) writes: Subj: AIDS and Math Date: 94-12-08 14:17:00 EST From: Wymermd To: gordonr@cc.umanitoba.ca CC: macquarrie@upei.ca CC: bss166@clss1.bangor.ac.uk Thanks Richard Gordon and thanks Dr. Ian MacQuarrie. Dr. MacQ. suggested that maybe failure rates for condoms are calculated similar to contraceptive failure - that is to say over a standard usage period of one year. If this is true, then my probability figuring is all wet. However, Richard Gordon gives us a referance (needed that) - his own article from: J. Sex & Marital Therapy 15(1), 5-30, 1989. I will try to get the abstract from Grateful Med. Ian, will attach Richard's mail here just in case you didn't get it. And if all of you don't mind, am sending a CC of this to Wolfgang Wuster at the School of Biological Sciences, Univ. of Wales, UK, who sent me a useful reply also. Thanks again for the help. Bob Wymer, MD, pediatrics at Naval Hospital Orlando, cdr/mc/usnr ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Subject: Re: AIDS and Math From: gordonr@cc.UManitoba.CA (Richard Gordon) Date: 4 Dec 1994 11:20:33 -0800 Message-ID: I went through these AIDS & condoms calculations in detail in: Gordon, R. (1989). A critical review of the physics and statistics of condoms and their role in individual versus societal survival of the AIDS epidemic. J. Sex & Marital Therapy 15(1), 5-30. -Dick Gordon, U. Manitoba[Dec4,94] On Thu, 1 Dec 1994 seth.michelson@syntex.com wrote: > > In article <3bkg7h$p2b@newsbf01.news.aol.com>, writes: > > The probability of failure seems high to me but if you say 10% I'll buy it. > The calculation goes as follows: > > The chance of failing is 10%. Therefore, the chance of not failing is 90%. > Therefore, the chance of not failining in two indepdent samples is 81% (.9 X > 9). Therefore the chance of failing is 19%. the general model is as follows: > > 1 - (1 - p)**N > > where p is the failure rate of a single try, > (1-p) the success rate of a single try > (1-p)**N the chance of succeeding after N tries > 1 - (1-p)**N the chance of failing after N tries. > > See how (1 - p) < 1 goes to zero as N goes to infinity? Says after a large number of tries you will blow your head off! > > SGM From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Sat Dec 10 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!agate!library.ucla.edu!news.mic.ucla.edu!news.lmu.edu!LMUMAIL.LMU.EDU!TSHANAHA From: TSHANAHA@LMUMAIL.LMU.EDU (Timothy Shanahan) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Animal Popluation Stability and/or Regulation a la Wynne-Edwards Date: Sun, 11 Dec 1994 11:59:55 Organization: LMU Lines: 48 Message-ID: NNTP-Posting-Host: 157.242.64.53 Keywords: population stability, population regulation, homeostasis X-Newsreader: Trumpet for Windows [Version 1.0 Rev Final Beta #6] Hello all! This is my first attempt to post anything in any electronic format, but being fond of the experimental method ... I am interested in hearing from anyone who feels competent to address the following query. Back in 1962 V.C. Wynne-Edwards published a book entitled "Animal Dispersion in Relation to Social Behaviour". In it he argued that animals actively regulate their population numbers in order to avoid overexploiting their environment and thereby causing their own eventual extinction. He gave lots of examples that he said showed that animals use territoriality and dominance hierarchies (among other mechanisms) in order to bring about the necessary population regulation. Biologists at the time, and ever since, have been quite hostile to these suggestions, running counter (as they appear to do) to the Darwinian emphasis on behaviors that promote individual (or inclusive) fitness over "population fitness". But Wynne-Edwards never backed down from his claims. Instead, he continued to point to examples in which the conventional limiting factors identified by Darwin, Lack, and other Darwinians fail to apply -- cases in which food is in abundance, there is no serious predation occurring, little or no disease, and stable climate. Yet animal populations under these conditions do not experience the geometrical increase in numbers that Darwin (following Malthus) supposed would result in the absence of the aforementioned checks. My questions are these: What is the current biological explanation of the phenomena Wynne-Edwards points to? Are his claims that these phenomena exist true? How do ecologists or population biologists go about explaining why animal populations under the conditions Wynne-Edwards describes do not keep on increasing in numbers until they run out of food? Is there a current biological consensus on this issue? If so, what is it? I would be interested in hearing from anyone who knows the answers to these questions, or who could point me in the right direction so that I could find out. Answers could be posted to this message, and/or sent to my e-mail address (given below). Thanks for any help! Timothy Shanahan Loyola Marymount University Los Angeles, CA 90045 E-Mail: tshanaha@lmumail.lmu.edu From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Sat Dec 10 22:00:00 1994 Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio,comp.theory.cell-automata,comp.ai.alife Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!gatech!swrinde!pipex!sunic!news.chalmers.se!news.gu.se!gd-news!d6237.shv.hb.se!sa209 From: sa209@utb.shv.hb.se (Claes Andersson) Subject: Re: Simulated Environments Parameter Question Message-ID: Sender: usenet@gdunix.gd.chalmers.se (USENET News System) Nntp-Posting-Host: d6237.shv.hb.se Organization: Department of Scocial Science References: <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> <1994Dec9.170002.11514@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> Date: Sun, 11 Dec 1994 20:02:51 GMT Lines: 68 Xref: biosci bionet.population-bio:955 comp.theory.cell-automata:1760 comp.ai.alife:1479 In article <1994Dec9.170002.11514@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu (Greg Stevens) writes: >In hiebeler@husc.harvard.edu (Dave Hiebeler) writes: >>In article <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu (Greg Stevens) writes: >>>[problems with REGEN_RATE, REPROD_THRESH, WORLD_SIZE, etc.] >>> Does anyone know of any hints, other than methodical trial and error, >>> for discovering good combinations of values for these parameters? >> What are the goals of the simulation? Are you just trying to get >>stable populations? Something biologically plausible? >Well, I wantto get populations stable enough to evolve. Right now the >chromosome contains two factors. First, the food-searching strategy >of the agents is controlled by a little neural net, which takes as input >the angle and distance of nearest food (and its own previous output) and >(through 7 hidden units) outputs a 2-unit, binary coded output for >movement (00 halt, 01 turn right, 10 turn left, 11 forward). >This part of the expierment was inspired by on done by Elman and Nolfi where >they started off with the chromosom controling thr weights, didn't have >learning of any kind, (therefore in initial generations having random >search patterns), and saw that through time more and more efficient strategies >for getting food were evolved (where fitenss was # foods collected). >I'm doing a spin-odd on that, except I have an additional gene and the >following question I want to ask: "Can it be computationally shown that there >is an evolutionary benefit to there being a weaning period during which the >child learns from the parent's behaviors?" The additional gene controls >the length-in-time-steps of the weaning period, and when a new agent is >born, the counter moves through that many time steps and for that >intercval, the agent copies the parent's movements and uses a supervised >learning algorithm to hange weights. After that, no learning takes place. >I want to see if, when length-of-weaning-period is included in the >chromosome, there is evolutionary pressure on the length of the weaning >period. >But in order to do this, I want the buggers to reproduce for enough generations >for them to evolve. >>.... One >>difference is that in my simulation the "food" (plants) were not >>deposited randomly down on the grid; new plants appeared when the >>current ones decided to reproduce (using age-based life-history >>probability tables -- although after learning something more about >>plants I realize I should have used size-based tables). And in fact >>the new plants were deposited fairly near the parent. This gave the >>simulation more spatial structure and heterogeneity. I got lots of >>local extinctions in different parts of the lattice, but global >>extinctions were less common (how much less common depended on the >>size of the lattice). >This is interesting and sounds like something I may want to try -- I've >actually considered it at one point already. >Greg Stevens >stevens@prodigal.psych.rochester.edu That sounds like a truely interesting project! But I think you should have genetic control on how rapid they learn. The weaning period could be a period where knowledge is served in a greater tempo. I think you should let them learn after that also but slower. Of course, there ought to be a cost for having a large brain and a long weaning period, perhaps slower reproduction for the mother who has to take care of its offspring. Claes Andersson. University of Bor†s. Sweden From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Sun Dec 11 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!boulder!benji.Colorado.EDU!brandy From: brandy@benji.Colorado.EDU (BRANDAUER CARL M) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Animal Popluation Stability and/or Regulation a la Wynne-Edwards Date: 12 Dec 94 16:01:57 GMT Organization: University of Colorado at Boulder Lines: 8 Message-ID: References: NNTP-Posting-Host: benji.colorado.edu Keywords: population stability, population regulation, homeostasis X-Newsreader: NN version 6.5.0 #12 (NOV) The rabbit plague on Laysan Island in the northwest Hawaiian chain provides a limiting case arguing against Wynne-Edwards. The rabbits were introduced sometime before 1923, mutliplied and destroyed enough of the vegetation, bird life and the like to kill themselves off. In fact, there is evidence that they became cannibalistic before becoming extinct. Hardly an example of a self-regulation species population. Cheers - Carl From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Mon Dec 12 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!gatech!swrinde!pipex!uunet!utcsri!utnut!torn!uunet.ca!uunet.ca!io.org!nobody From: hartcomm@io.org (george kasey) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: PRIMITIVE HERBAL BIRTH CONTROL /BALTICS Date: 13 Dec 1994 03:13:01 -0500 Organization: Internex Online (io.org) Data: 416-363-4151 Voice: 416-363-8676 Lines: 171 Message-ID: <3cjl2d$7ie@ionews.io.org> NNTP-Posting-Host: bonk.io.org Summary: Questions regarding herbal & other methods of b.c. Keywords: herbal- birth- control pls. let us know of any info. you may have on methods of birthcontrol used by primitives and the supression of these by church & state . ie: in Sinclair, Lewis "the Profits of Religion" Chapter on Birth control available on the www at [ukanaix.cc.ukans.edu] in subject >art>freethought web .There is mention of a "...simple method of sterilazation " and "... prevention of conception" that ... the disemination of this info. was forbiden by law & punishable by inprisonment (this was in the u.s. in the teens). What could these methods possibly have been??? Why where they supressed??? Or should we ask??? {we are interested in any sources of info. in this field . pls. accept that our research is not specifically technical at this point but rather philosophical.Truth... in terms of a wholistic approach to what may amount to a natural order of birth control; that is a knowledge of methods passed down from the ancients and then suppressed to benefit empire builders, would need to surface before what S.P.R. Charter speaks of in his book "The Choice & the Threat" would have any foundation. In fact if there is some conspiracy to deprive the masses of these "facts of life" what further can be accomplished by laboratory research & speculation. If the " media" is closed to the dissemination of " basic knowledge" in these issues & disinformation is the "Law", of what benefit is any scientific data and statistics. Orthodoxies have expressed themselves in Cairo on the subject of over population quite clearly. We would be intersted to know of any other research being undertaken in the field of herbal birth control. } Some aspects of the following posting may be of casual interest although it is political in subject matter there may be some pattern recognizable here (American indigenous people used " pennyroyal"-the celts used "mistltoe" -the balts-" ruta"... see:Lust,John "The Herb Book" for botanical names for "abortificants " and "emenagogues") The following posting in : Newsgroups: soc.culture.baltics Subject: BALTIC RELIGION Summary: YALTA TAKE TWO Followup-To: Distribution: Organization: Internex Online (io.org) Data: 416-363-4151 Voice: 416-363-8676 Keywords: BALTIC RELIGION Cc: From hartcomm@io.org Date: Wed, 12 Oct 1994 05:37:12 -0400 From: george kasey Subject: baltic ancestral religion sinks in a sea of 700 yrs. of imperialism "Lietuva" is a spiritual kingdom that is now global we no longer need thes e artificial political boundries arbitrarily placed around us as if we were all enclosed within them. The ancestral religion was pre Vedic pacifist,not nationalist or hierarcal,not patriarchal or matriarchal but androgynous, not vertical but horizontal theocracy the size of the "holy" Roman empire ,from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea & beyond to the Hymalayas. A truly classless society. It was due to the aggressions of Tutonic knights exhiled from the Crusades for drunken excess and debauchery th at farmers held a plough in one hand and the sword in the other. Then it was that (Vaidila) the elders had to step aside and warleaders were appointed. From that day to this that once holy ground has been drinking blood. There is no semblance left of the old way as the influences of the three Romes (Rome,Constantinople & Moscow) have systematically inculcated imperialist" Martian" hierarchical materialistic culture if not directly then by the axiom that " what one fights, one becomes". The "Li etuva" of 700yrs. ago was not as is described a Duchy but rather a federation organized to oppose the imperialism of Rome. In this technological age of massification & cultural homogenization it is difficult to comprehend this oral tradition and phi losophical naturalism that was the true ecologically oriented wisdomcraft . That taught herbal birth control (Ruta) and union with God (sudieve). All of these things handed down from generation to generation. Not one sacred tree sacrificed for the pu lp/paper. A truly paperless book with roots 40,000 yrs. old. Do we need the internet today ??? That ship sunk without a trace ,how symbolic of this Baltic Religion. "They" use these words with Roman letters on Maps to draw these political boundries for the "Propaganda" (as defined by Jaques Ellul) in a region where there where no "boundries" to circumscribe the concentration camps of slaves . Canada painted "Dominion" red to the Arctic Sea Africa apears smaller than America & "Lietuva" is devi ded into Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,Belorussia & the Ukraine." United we stand...???" The indigenous populations have not been consulted. They are needed: in Siberia and Canada to work the mines and cut the timber. They are needed in Chicago,Detroit, Toronto to work the assembly lines of Fordism. There were three monkeys at Yalta. We have been conditioned to think that Stalin was the bad guy . The question remains then,how is it that the proclamation of Neutrality by the Baltic states was not re instated immediatly then and there by the good guys ??? It is an error to look a current events as somehow without precedent out of the context of history. This region has been open to every for of exploitation and genocide for the last 700yrs.(bau dzava) not just the last 50. It resembles the history of the indigenous Americans. In an age preaching Ecuminicalism ,where is the sacred fire in the ancient forests still attended to by the modern vestral virgins (vaidilutes) who commute from the `b urbs to the office everyday. Art Bank ??? Where is the balto/slavic news network that sings the durges (raudas) that need to be sung. Where is the Voice of the indigenous Baltic poet/priest hearkened to or the woodcarvers sculptures (rupintojelis) of the thinking man of the crossroads seen. Indeed it seems this ship has sunk into a cruel sea without a trace... perhaps never to rise again. Perhaps it seems in retrospect amusing that some may ask as they have on the internet ..."can we help". Su Dievu. 0 Nada Foundation for the Preservation of Freethought Intrnl. (inc.) (Jurgis Kestutis) George Kasey c/o (The Heart of Hearts) H'art communications/productions P.O.B.#252 Stn.D Toronto,Ontario, M6P 3J8 Canada phone:(416)-762-0688 e-mail: hartcomm@io.org Zaibas A neutral Baltic (Baltic Federation) from the Baltic ( White) to the Black Sea will reinstate itself NOW and demand recognition of its aboriginal lands occupied by alien invaders for 777 yrs. We demand equal bilateral and multilateral status to that of the three Romes. We request the same amounts given to Russia for our own reconstruction without prejudice or preferential treatment. We are establishing an international World bank here and NOW. Although we are fewer in number than those who have artificially over populated themselves we demand protection in terms of human ecology for our continuum. For we are a peace loving people. We cast off the yoke of "Martian" domination NOW & FOREVER. We demand that those pseudo "balts" the lackeys and foreign agents resign or voluntarily exhile themselves from the government posts or the positions of self agrendizment & vampirism under the banner of papist,communist,capitalist or whatever other ideological smokescreen you use to exploit and dominate our people threw your propaganda your technologies and your military . We demand that the United Nations recognize once and for all the barbarism that has been perpetuated in this land and proclaim our the sanctity of our ancestral heritage and defend our neutrality NOW and graphicly demonstrate the true boundries of "Lietuva" (from the Baltic to the Black sea- the FEDERATION) and publicly denounce those who slander and defile us with threats real or promised ,psycological or economic. We is our seat at the round table of the worlds religions . By who's authority are we denounced as pagans and to whom are we the heretic . Ours is the most ancient of the worlds faiths. Cease and decist ,therefor in your assults on that of which either you have been brainwashed to forget or know nothing of . We do not ask "others" to go we are all children of God and brothers under the sun ,only a non interfearance from the religio/political ortodoxies and an end to their imperialism both physical & spiritual. pls.send return email to: hartcomm@io.org smail to: Nada Foundation syndict.intrnl.(inc.) 252 stn.d Toronto,Ont., M6P 3J8 Canada -- From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Mon Dec 12 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!newshost.lanl.gov!news.ttu.edu!aurora.LaTech.edu!darwin.sura.net!ukma!occ!ndlc.occ.uky.edu!daviseg From: daviseg@ndlc.occ.uky.edu (Eric Davis) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: BIOLOGY IMAGES Date: 12 Dec 1994 22:21:36 GMT Organization: The NDLC's Internet Gateway Lines: 5 Message-ID: <3ciidg$ac6@sparc.occ.uky.edu> NNTP-Posting-Host: ndlc.occ.uky.edu X-Newsreader: TIN [version 1.2 PL2] Does anyone know where I could find GIF's or JPEG's of biology-related images. Any general pictures will suffice. Thank you in advance. Eric Davis From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Mon Dec 12 22:00:00 1994 Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Path: biosci!ns1.faseb.org!darwin.sura.net!news.duc.auburn.edu!mallard!kaetzjp From: James P Kaetz Subject: Special Issue of _National Forum_ X-Sender: kaetzjp@mallard Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII Message-ID: Sender: usenet@mail.auburn.edu (Usenet Administrator) Nntp-Posting-Host: mallard2.duc.auburn.edu Organization: Auburn University Mime-Version: 1.0 Date: Tue, 13 Dec 1994 20:24:50 GMT Lines: 44 Appearing in February 1995, a special issue of _National Forum: The Phi Kappa Phi Journal_ entitled "Our Stewardship in a Changing World." This issue features the following authors and articles: Bradley Shavit Arston. "The Unnatural Steward: Humanity's Relationship to the Earth" Don Lind. "The Earth-Home We See from Space" Lester R. Brown. "The World Food Prospect: Entering a New Era" Marvin S. Soroos. "Environmental Security: Choices for the Twenty-First Century" Jean Bethke Elshtain. "The Family in Trouble: Why We Should Worry" W. Duane Boyce. "The Ecology of the Soul: Stewardship at Home and Abroad" Alicia Barcena and Noel D. Payne. "Stewardship and Sustainable Development" Lawrence Susskind and David Laws. "Talking with the Future: Intergenerational Dialogue" National Forum is published quarterly by the Honor Society of Phi Kappa Phi, a non-profit organization and interdisclipinary honor society that awards over $350,000 in fellowships for graduate study each year. For information on how to obtain the Our Stewardship in a Changing World issue, send an e-mail to James P. Kaetz, Editor, at: kaetzjp@mail.auburn.edu. Or write to: The Honor Society of Phi Kappa Phi Box 16000 Louisiana State University Baton Rouge, LA 70893 From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Mon Dec 12 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!galaxy.ucr.edu!library.ucla.edu!agate!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!news.umbc.edu!haven.umd.edu!ames!newsfeed.gsfc.nasa.gov!ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov!robinson From: robinson@ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov (Jon Robinson) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio,comp.theory.cell-automata,comp.ai.alife Subject: Re: Simulated Environments Parameter Question Date: 13 Dec 1994 21:00:03 GMT Organization: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center -- Greenbelt, Maryland USA Lines: 5 Distribution: world Message-ID: <3cl20j$a9i@paperboy.gsfc.nasa.gov> References: <1994Dec5.205450.28653@galileo.cc.rochester.edu> NNTP-Posting-Host: ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Xref: biosci bionet.population-bio:961 comp.theory.cell-automata:1763 comp.ai.alife:1488 Use some of your input parameters and results to create a response surface. That should give you an idea of what combinations of values will give any particular result. - Jon From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Mon Dec 12 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bcm!cs.utexas.edu!howland.reston.ans.net!news.moneng.mei.com!uwm.edu!lll-winken.llnl.gov!osi-east2.es.net!oracle.pnl.gov!bbs.pnl.gov!tad.pnl.gov!user From: ca_brandt@pnl.gov (Charlie Brandt) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Who's using STELLA? Followup-To: bionet.population-bio Date: 13 Dec 1994 19:05:54 GMT Organization: Battelle PNL Lines: 5 Distribution: world Message-ID: NNTP-Posting-Host: tad.pnl.gov We are using STELLA ("I-Think", actually) for a number of population model applications, including plant-soil nitrogen balance and age/stage -structured life cycle models for birds and Pacific salmon. I think it is an excellent program, and the interface is getting better with each upgrade. From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 13 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!grapevine.lcs.mit.edu!uhog.mit.edu!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!news.umbc.edu!cs.umd.edu!newsfeed.gsfc.nasa.gov!ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov!robinson From: robinson@ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov (Jon Robinson) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Animal Popluation Stability and/or Regulation a la Wynne-Edwards Date: 14 Dec 1994 18:38:16 GMT Organization: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center -- Greenbelt, Maryland USA Lines: 8 Distribution: world Message-ID: <3cne2o$s63@paperboy.gsfc.nasa.gov> References: NNTP-Posting-Host: ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Keywords: population stability, population regulation, homeostasis It has been many years since I have read Wynne-Edwards. I don't recall the examples he used, but as I remember, I was unimpressed at the time. Could you list some of them so I might reconsider. Food is not the only limiting factore. It could be nesting sites or breading sites or appropriate habitat. - Jon From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 13 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!gatech!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!howland.reston.ans.net!news.starnet.net!wupost!waikato!waikato.ac.nz!aeiham From: aeiham@waikato.ac.nz Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Q: 'Ecological Modelling' email address Message-ID: <1994Dec14.165526.36026@waikato.ac.nz> Date: 14 Dec 94 16:55:26 +1300 Organization: University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand Lines: 7 Does anyone have an email address for the editors or similar of the journal 'Ecological Modelling' based in Holland - an Elsievier publication, I think. Any help much a[[reciated Cheers -Terry Brown. From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 13 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!grapevine.lcs.mit.edu!uhog.mit.edu!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!news.umbc.edu!cs.umd.edu!newsfeed.gsfc.nasa.gov!ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov!robinson From: robinson@ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov (Jon Robinson) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Who's using STELLA? Date: 14 Dec 1994 18:50:52 GMT Organization: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center -- Greenbelt, Maryland USA Lines: 6 Distribution: world Message-ID: <3cneqc$s63@paperboy.gsfc.nasa.gov> References: NNTP-Posting-Host: ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit You might want to check out SIGMA as an alternative to STELLA Information is available on WWW at: http://fi-www.arc.nasa.gov/fia/projects/sigma/index.html - Jon Robinson From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 13 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!grapevine.lcs.mit.edu!uhog.mit.edu!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!news.umbc.edu!cs.umd.edu!newsfeed.gsfc.nasa.gov!ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov!robinson From: robinson@ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov (Jon Robinson) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Habitat switching models Date: 14 Dec 1994 18:54:43 GMT Organization: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center -- Greenbelt, Maryland USA Lines: 6 Distribution: world Message-ID: <3cnf1j$s63@paperboy.gsfc.nasa.gov> NNTP-Posting-Host: ltpsun.gsfc.nasa.gov Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Keywords: Habitat switching; Cell Based Models I would appreciate it if any of you could refer me to a recent review article on habitat switching models or sub models as part of a larger cell based landscape model. Thanks, Jon From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Thu Dec 15 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!VAX.MBHS.EDU!96CWILLIAMS From: 96CWILLIAMS@VAX.MBHS.EDU ("Charles Williams") Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Plant Population Density Date: 15 Dec 1994 23:02:31 -0800 Organization: BIOSCI International Newsgroups for Molecular Biology Lines: 7 Sender: daemon@net.bio.net Distribution: world Message-ID: <199412160702.XAA13083@net.bio.net> NNTP-Posting-Host: net.bio.net I am in need of information concerning the effects of plant crouding on plant's structure, and growth. Any information would be greatly appreciated I would prefer and e-mail response, because I am having difficulty subscribing to this list. Thank you for you time and effort. Charles Williams 96cwilliams@vax.mbhs.edu From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Fri Dec 16 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!panix!zip.eecs.umich.edu!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!gatech!howland.reston.ans.net!news.cac.psu.edu!news.pop.psu.edu!hudson.lm.com!godot.cc.duq.edu!newsfeed.pitt.edu!uunet!ftpbox!news.acns.nwu.edu!uicvm.uic.edu!u30585 Organization: University of Illinois at Chicago, ADN Computer Center Date: Wed, 14 Dec 1994 22:59:24 CST From: Alan O. Parman Message-ID: <94348.225924U30585@uicvm.uic.edu> Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Animal Popluation Stability and/or Regulation a la Wynne-Edwards References: Lines: 17 The reason science has generally not followed Wynne-Edwards is that any organism that reduces it's fitness for the good of the species, will be vulnerable to competition from conspecifics which do not follow these practices. An organism that could produce 2 offspring, but 'chooses' to produce only one, so as not to cause overcrowding, will be outcompeted by one that goes ahead and produces 2 offspring anyway. Territoriality is generally a way for an organism to increase it's access to either food or mates, and reduce access for others, thus enhancing it's fitness while reducing the fitness of the others. Two good books with info on this subject, and which do not require to much in-depth knowledge of any specific field, are 'The selfish gene', and 'The extended phenotype', both by Richard Dawkins. The first is at least in part a response to Wynne-Edwards group selection ideas, showing that even individual selection may not be the correct way to look at things. ************************************************************************* AP [:{) The Paramecium Man u30585@uicvm.uic.edu From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Fri Dec 16 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!gatech!howland.reston.ans.net!vixen.cso.uiuc.edu!news.uoregon.edu!netnews.nwnet.net!selway.umt.edu!selway.umt.edu!stead From: Jennifer L Nichols Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Animal Popluation Stability and/or Regulation a la Wynne-Edwards Date: Wed, 14 Dec 1994 22:45:47 -0700 Organization: University of Montana Lines: 37 Message-ID: References: NNTP-Posting-Host: selway.umt.edu Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII In-Reply-To: In response to your posting: I got a good chuckle out of the pharse "hostile" when associating it to biologists. But that is beyond the point. It seems to me that Wynne-Edwards is simply arguing for, rather than against, the existence of Intraspecific competition. And this subject, as we all know, is enough to make certain biologists see red...literally. It is a jumbled mess of density-dependent behavior, effecting not only fecundity but survivorship itself. But, if you really want answers to the question..."Do animals self-thin?" (if I am reading your question correctly) I would have to answer of course they do. Individuals within a cohort have a tendency to compete with one another, especially the greater their densities are. The whole point is to bring the population down to the point where the resources available are comfortably utilized by all, without stressing the resource. However, I think if you want to know if they do it conciously, as well as your requested examples countering the notion, you would have to turn to a more authoritive voice. Try checking out M. Begon and R. Wall, a 1986 paper called Is there a self thinning rule for animal populations? It was in Oikos, 46, 122-124. Hope it helps. J. Nichols -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- 'Tis better to be that which we destroy than by destruction dwell in doubtful joy' -*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*- Shakespeare From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Fri Dec 16 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!spool.mu.edu!howland.reston.ans.net!swiss.ans.net!newstf01.news.aol.com!newsbf01.news.aol.com!not-for-mail From: mnk2@aol.com (Mnk2) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: AIDS and Math Date: 17 Dec 1994 08:50:08 -0500 Organization: America Online, Inc. (1-800-827-6364) Lines: 11 Sender: news@newsbf01.news.aol.com Message-ID: <3cuqag$6qk@newsbf01.news.aol.com> References: <3cd77r$bdh@newsbf01.news.aol.com> NNTP-Posting-Host: newsbf01.news.aol.com In article <3cd77r$bdh@newsbf01.news.aol.com>, wymermd@aol.com (Wymermd) writes: A P O L O G Y A N D C O R R E C T I O N In my earlier communication re AIDS and math, I made an arithmetic error in the bottom line. N D O E S N ' T equal [log (1 - p)]/[log (1 - R)]; N does in fact equal [log (1 - R)]/[log (1 - p)]. I apologize for any inconvenience or confused scratching of heads that I may have caused anyone. (Let this be a lesson to all of us, especially me, about checking our work before turning it in.) From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Fri Dec 16 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!rutgers!mcrcr6!cmcl2!yale.edu!yale!yale!UCONNVM.UCONN.EDU!VITT Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Animal Popluation Stability and/or Regulation a la Wynne-Edwards Message-ID: <1708EBA67R86.VITT@UCONNVM.UCONN.EDU> From: VITT@UCONNVM.UCONN.EDU Date: Fri, 16 Dec 94 13:15:05 EST References: Organization: UCONN Keywords: population stability, population regulation, homeostasis NNTP-Posting-Host: uconnvm.uconn.edu Lines: 26 In article brandy@benji.Colorado.EDU (BRANDAUER CARL M) writes: > >The rabbit plague on Laysan Island in the northwest Hawaiian chain provides >a limiting case arguing against Wynne-Edwards. The rabbits were introduced >sometime before 1923, mutliplied and destroyed enough of the vegetation, >bird life and the like to kill themselves off. In fact, there is evidence >that they became cannibalistic before becoming extinct. Hardly an example >of a self-regulation species population. > >Cheers - Carl However, the group selection argument does hold for the case of rabbbits in Aus tralia. They were infected with myxoma virus to control population numbers. T he highly virulent strains were successful, but wiped themselves out! Simulati on models have shown that less virulent strains will contribute to future gener ations at a higher rate than virulent strains which kill off their host. More benign parasites may evolve through group selection. In general, people should go back and READ Wynne-Edwards for themselves, instea d of following the evolutionary ecology party line that group selection doesn't happen. Wynne-Edwards has some interesting ideas when read in the original. The flocki ng behavior of starlings may be explained by some of his evidence/thoughts/spec ulations....he thought that flocks may "count" at morning and evening roosts. He also thought that communal breeding sites limit population growth, not food. Which is a common misconception of his ideas. From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Sun Dec 18 22:00:00 1994 Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!gatech!swrinde!pipex!uunet!news.unr.edu!hoelzer.biology.unr.edu!user From: hoelzer@unr.edu (Guy Hoelzer) Subject: Journal to publish description of computer simulation? Message-ID: Followup-To: bionet.population-bio Sender: usenet@news.unr.edu Organization: Biology Department Date: Mon, 19 Dec 1994 18:13:08 GMT Lines: 21 Hi netters, A couple of coathors and I have been working for some time on a computer simulation of mtDNA evolution. The program and the results are very interesting and, of course, complicated. We have come to the conclusion that what was originally intended for a single paper must be divided into several papers dealing with different subjects. One thought was that the details of the program itself might be published separately to avoid using a great deal of space in the subject papers. Is there an appropriate journal in which to publish a description of the simulation program without going into the details of the results? -- ****************************************************************************** Guy Hoelzer hoelzer@unr.edu Dept. of Biology University of Nevada Reno Reno, NV 89557 ****************************************************************************** From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Mon Dec 19 22:00:00 1994 Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Path: biosci!agate!howland.reston.ans.net!news.sprintlink.net!uunet!munnari.oz.au!newshost.anu.edu.au!csc.canberra.edu.au!Watson!shielr From: Russell Shiel Subject: Re: Q: 'Ecological Modelling' email address In-Reply-To: <1994Dec14.165526.36026@waikato.ac.nz> X-Sender: shielr@Watson Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII Message-ID: Sender: news@csc.canberra.edu.au Nntp-Posting-Host: watson.canberra.edu.au Organization: University of Canberra References: <1994Dec14.165526.36026@waikato.ac.nz> Mime-Version: 1.0 Date: Tue, 20 Dec 1994 16:48:22 +1100 Lines: 19 On 14 Dec 1994 aeiham@waikato.ac.nz wrote: > > Does anyone have an email address for the editors or similar of the journal > 'Ecological Modelling' based in Holland - an Elsievier publication, I think. > > Any help much a[[reciated > > Cheers -Terry Brown. > Terry, you've probably received a host of answers already, however if not, the fax number for Elsevier is 31-20-5803-705. I don't have their e-mail address, but a fax to that number will get them back to you on the net if you give them your address. Regards, Russ Shiel, Murray-Darling Freshwater Research Centre, Albury, NSW Ph: 61-60-431002; Fax: 61-60-431626; e-mail: shielr@mdfrc.canberra.edu.au > From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 20 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!agate!howland.reston.ans.net!pipex!uunet!ftpbox!news.acns.nwu.edu!uicvm.uic.edu!u30585 Organization: University of Illinois at Chicago, ADN Computer Center Date: Tue, 20 Dec 1994 17:07:13 CST From: Alan O. Parman Message-ID: <94354.170713U30585@uicvm.uic.edu> Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Animal Popluation Stability and/or Regulation a la Wynne-Edwards References: <1708EBA67R86.VITT@UCONNVM.UCONN.EDU> Lines: 26 In article <1708EBA67R86.VITT@UCONNVM.UCONN.EDU>, VITT@UCONNVM.UCONN.EDU says: > >In article >brandy@benji.Colorado.EDU (BRANDAUER CARL M) writes: > >> >However, the group selection argument does hold for the case of rabbbits in >Aus >tralia. They were infected with myxoma virus to control population numbers. >T >he highly virulent strains were successful, but wiped themselves out! >Simulati >on models have shown that less virulent strains will contribute to future >gener >ations at a higher rate than virulent strains which kill off their host. More >benign parasites may evolve through group selection. Could you give some detail as to why this scenario is _not_ explainable by _individual_ selection? Fitness is some function of (survival)*(fecundity). In viruses both are closely related. Less virulent strains don't kill their host so fast, so they have higher survival. The longer the host lives, the more the host can spread the virus, so it has higher fecundity. No selection at the group level need be invoked. ************************************************************************* AP [:{) The Paramecium Man u30585@uicvm.uic.edu From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 20 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!agate!howland.reston.ans.net!news.sprintlink.net!pipex!lyra.csx.cam.ac.uk!sunsite.doc.ic.ac.uk!daresbury!imbb1.imbb.forth.gr!imbb1!louis From: louis@myia.imbb.forth.gr (Kitsos Louis) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: POSTDOC POSITIONS Followup-To: bionet.population-bio Date: Wed, 21 Dec 94 14:26:30 GMT Organization: IMBB Lines: 13 Message-ID: NNTP-Posting-Host: louiqua.imbb.forth.gr X-Newsreader: VersaTerm Link v1.1.1 INSTITUTE OF MOLECULAR BIOLOGY AND BIOTECHNOLOGY FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY, HELLAS HERAKLION, CRETE, GREECE TWO POSTDOCTORAL POSITIONS, FUNDED BY THE MACARTHUR FOUNDATION, ARE AVAILABLE AT THE INSECT MOLECULAR GENETICS GROUP OF THE IMBB. THE RESEARCH TOPICS INCLUDE GENOME ANALYSIS AND MOLOCULAR GENETICS OF THE MALARIA MOSQUITO ANOPHELES GAMBIAE. APPLICANTS SHOULD SEND A CV AND ARRANGE FOR 2 LETTERS OF RECOMMENDATION TO BE SENT TO KITSOS LOUIS: IMBB, FORTH, BOX 1527, 711 10 HERAKLION, CRETE, GREECE FAX: +30-81-231308 E-MAIL: LOUIS@MYIA.IMBB.FORTH.GR From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 20 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!spool.mu.edu!howland.reston.ans.net!pipex!sunsite.doc.ic.ac.uk!daresbury!bioftp.unibas.ch!rc1.vub.ac.be!ben!wmoens From: wmoens@ben.vub.ac.be (Moens William) Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Seeking primate DNA's Date: 21 Dec 1994 17:09:50 GMT Organization: Brussels Free Universities (VUB/ULB), Belgium Lines: 15 Message-ID: <3d9ngu$178@rc1.vub.ac.be> NNTP-Posting-Host: ben.vub.ac.be. X-Newsreader: TIN [version 1.2 PL2] Hello, Does someone know a source of -or might accept to provide- 1-2 micrograms of genomic DNA from various primate species,particularly those from Asia, Africa and Madagascar. The purpose is to identify and map an apparently ubiquitous class of genomic markers. Thank you very much in advance, W. Moens Institute of Health & Epidemiology Biotechnology Unit Wytsmanstreet 14 B-1050 Brussels Belgium wmoens@ben.vub.ac.be From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 27 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!agate!ames!enews.sgi.com!news.igc.apc.org!cdp!jhanson From: Jay Hanson Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Confused about population data Message-ID: References: <00984744.8D5F4900@msu.oscs.montana.edu> Date: Tue, 27 Dec 1994 09:06:35 -0800 (PST) X-Gateway: notes@igc.apc.org Lines: 84 >Topic 76 Confused about population data 9 responses >uvsmr bionet.population-bio 10:33 AM Sep 14, 1994 >(at Msu.oscs.montana.edu) (From News system) > >I think I must have missed something along the way. Could someone please send >me (or post) a list of references describing the harmful effects of our current >population or our current rate of population growth? I agree that the numbers >themselves are startling, but am unsure of any documented data indicating >harmful effects of such. I am not interested in merely politically- or >distance-caused problems, but of actual numbers-caused problems. Thanks for >your help! > ======================================================================= .HOW CLOSE TO PRACTICAL LIMITS? ."There is accumulating evidence that humanity my soon have to .confront the real carrying capacity constraints. For example, nearly .40% of terrestrial net primary productivity (photosynthesis) is .already being used ('appropriated') by humans, one species among .millions, and this fraction is steadily increasing (Vitousek et al. .1986). If we take this percentage as an index of the human carrying .capacity of the earth and assume that a growing economy could come to .appropriate 80% of photosynthetic production before destroying the .functional integrity of the ecosphere, the earth will effectively go .from half to completely full within the next doubling period -- .currently about 35 years (Daly 1991). . ."The significance of this unprecedented convergence of economic scale .with that of the ecosphere is not generally appreciated in the .current debate on sustainable development. Because the human impact .on critical functions of the ecosphere is not uniform 'effective .fullness' may actually occur may actually occur well before the next .doubling of human activity. (Liebig's law reminds us that is takes .only a single critical limiting factor to constrain the entire .system.) Indeed, data presented in this chapter suggests that .long-term human carrying capacity may already have been at less than .the present 40% preemption of photosynthesis. If so, even current .consumption (throughput) cannot be sustained indefinitely, and .further material growth can be purchased only with accelerated .depletion of remaining natural capital stocks. . ."This conundrum can be illustrated another way by extrapolation from .our ecological footprint data. If the entire world population of 5.6 .billion were to use productive land at the rate of our .Vancouver/Lower Fraser Valley example, the total requirement would be .28.5 billion ha. In fact, the total land area of Earth is only just .over 13 billion ha, of which only 8.8 billion ha is productive .cropland, pasture, or forest. The immediate implications are .two-fold: first, as already stressed, the citizens of wealthy .industrial countries unconsciously appropriate far more than their .share of global carrying capacity; second, we would require an .additional 'two Earths,' assuming present technology and efficiency .levels, to provide for the present world population at Canadian's .ecological standard of living. In short, there may simply not be .enough natural capital around to satisfy current development .assumptions. The difference between the anticipated ecological .footprint of the human enterprise and the available land/natural .capital base is a measure 'sustainability gap' confronting .humankind." [p. 383] . .A CAUTIONARY NOTE ."We admittedly make no allowance for potentially large efficiency .gains or technological advances. Even at carrying capacity, further .economic growth is possible (but not necessarily desirable) if .resource consumption and waste production continue to decline per .unit GDP (Jacobs 1991). We should not, however, rely exclusively on .this conventional rationale. New technologies require decades to .achieve the market penetration needed to significantly influence .negative ecological trends. Moreover,there is no assurance that .savings will not simply be directed into alternative forms of .consumption. Efficiency improvements may actually increase rather .than decrease resource consumption (Saunders 1992). We are already .the limit in a world of rising material expectations in which the .human population is increasing by 94 million people per year. The .minimal food-land requirements alone each year for this number of new .people is 18,800,000 ha (at 5 people/ha, the current average .productivity of world agriculture) -- the equivalent of all cropland .in France." [p. 386] ===================================================================== . INVESTING IN NATURAL CAPITAL - 1994 - Island Press .Free catalog: 1-800-828-1302 or 1-707-983-6432 Fax 1-707-983-6164 Jay From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 27 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!agate!overload.lbl.gov!ames!enews.sgi.com!news.igc.apc.org!cdp!jhanson From: Jay Hanson Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: The Tragedy of the Commons Message-ID: Date: Mon, 26 Dec 1994 20:29:43 -0800 (PST) X-Gateway: notes@igc.apc.org Lines: 41 THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS Garrett Hardin's essay "The Tragedy of the Commons" (1968) is a modern classic in environmental literature. The "commons" refers to the common resources that are owned by everyone. The "tragedy" occurs as the result of everyone being free to maximize one's own profit by exploiting the commons. Hardin's essay goes something like this: Visualize a pasture that is open to everyone. The carrying capacity of this pasture is ten animals. Ten herdsmen are each grazing an animal to fatten up for market. In other words, all the grass that the pasture can produce is now being consumed by the ten animals. Harry (one of the herdsmen) will add one more animal to the pasture if he can make a profit. He subtracts the original cost of the new animal from the expected sales price of the fattened animal and then considers the cost of the food. Adding one more animal will mean less food for each of the present animals, but since Harry only has 1/10 of the herd, he only has to pay 1/10 of the cost. Harry decides to add an animal and take a profit while the other herdsmen suffer a loss. There is no "technological" solution to this problem; only "political" solutions are possible. Shrinking profit margins force the other herdsmen either to add more animals or go out of business. Overgrazing and erosion destroy the pasture. The exploiter is exploited and the consumer, consumed. This is called "progress." To what end? "In the end," says the Grand Inquisitor, "in the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, 'Make us your slaves, but feed us.' " (The Brothers Karamazov) Aloha, Jay Hanson, 78-6622 Alii drive, Kailua-Kona, HI 96740 Phone: 808-329-6645 or 322-7268 From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 27 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!agate!ames!enews.sgi.com!news.igc.apc.org!cdp!jhanson From: Jay Hanson Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Re: POPULATION: Delusions and Reali Message-ID: References: <36cvuc$n1v@phoebe.jpl.nasa.gov> Date: Mon, 26 Dec 1994 19:19:13 -0800 (PST) X-Gateway: notes@igc.apc.org Lines: 315 jdg@at tycho.jpl.nasa.gov >Those of you interested in population growth, etc., might be interested in >Ron Bailey's book "Ecoscam" (1993, now in paperback). He discusses the errors >inherent in the Malthusian misunderstanding of exponential population growth, >resource depletion, etc. Who is misunderstanding whom? Consider the following? ====================================================================== .HOW CLOSE TO PRACTICAL LIMITS? ."There is accumulating evidence that humanity my soon have to .confront the real carrying capacity constraints. For example, nearly .40% of terrestrial net primary productivity (photosynthesis) is .already being used ('appropriated') by humans, one species among .millions, and this fraction is steadily increasing (Vitousek et al. .1986). If we take this percentage as an index of the human carrying .capacity of the earth and assume that a growing economy could come to .appropriate 80% of photosynthetic production before destroying the .functional integrity of the ecosphere, the earth will effectively go .from half to completely full within the next doubling period -- .currently about 35 years (Daly 1991). . ."The significance of this unprecedented convergence of economic scale .with that of the ecosphere is not generally appreciated in the .current debate on sustainable development. Because the human impact .on critical functions of the ecosphere is not uniform 'effective .fullness' may actually occur may actually occur well before the next .doubling of human activity. (Liebig's law reminds us that is takes .only a single critical limiting factor to constrain the entire .system.) Indeed, data presented in this chapter suggests that .long-term human carrying capacity may already have been at less than .the present 40% preemption of photosynthesis. If so, even current .consumption (throughput) cannot be sustained indefinitely, and .further material growth can be purchased only with accelerated .depletion of remaining natural capital stocks. . ."This conundrum can be illustrated another way by extrapolation from .our ecological footprint data. If the entire world population of 5.6 .billion were to use productive land at the rate of our .Vancouver/Lower Fraser Valley example, the total requirement would be .28.5 billion ha. In fact, the total land area of Earth is only just .over 13 billion ha, of which only 8.8 billion ha is productive .cropland, pasture, or forest. The immediate implications are .two-fold: first, as already stressed, the citizens of wealthy .industrial countries unconsciously appropriate far more than their .share of global carrying capacity; second, we would require an .additional 'two Earths,' assuming present technology and efficiency .levels, to provide for the present world population at Canadian's .ecological standard of living. In short, there may simply not be .enough natural capital around to satisfy current development .assumptions. The difference between the anticipated ecological .footprint of the human enterprise and the available land/natural .capital base is a measure 'sustainability gap' confronting .humankind." [p. 383] . .A CAUTIONARY NOTE ."We admittedly make no allowance for potentially large efficiency .gains or technological advances. Even at carrying capacity, further .economic growth is possible (but not necessarily desirable) if .resource consumption and waste production continue to decline per .unit GDP (Jacobs 1991). We should not, however, rely exclusively on .this conventional rationale. New technologies require decades to .achieve the market penetration needed to significantly influence .negative ecological trends. Moreover,there is no assurance that .savings will not simply be directed into alternative forms of .consumption. Efficiency improvements may actually increase rather .than decrease resource consumption (Saunders 1992). We are already .the limit in a world of rising material expectations in which the .human population is increasing by 94 million people per year. The .minimal food-land requirements alone each year for this number of new .people is 18,800,000 ha (at 5 people/ha, the current average .productivity of world agriculture) -- the equivalent of all cropland .in France." [p. 386] . . INVESTING IN NATURAL CAPITAL - 1994 - Island Press .Free catalog: 1-800-828-1302 or 1-707-983-6432 Fax 1-707-983-6164 ====================================================================== >Along the way, he demolishes the (shaky) scientific basis for ozone depletion, >global warming, nuclear winter, etc., that so many people want to use to scare >you into accepting certain policies they favor (for reasons unrelated to the >scare-issue of the day). He demolished scientific basis for ozone depletion? If you work for NASA, you better enlighten your boss! ===================================================================== .Copyright, 1994. The Associated Press. All rights reserved. . .By PAUL RECER . AP Science Writer . .GODDARD SPACEFLIGHT CENTER, Md. (AP) -- A NASA satellite has found .powerful new evidence that manmade chemicals and not natural forces .are causing the global thinning of the protective ozone layer, .including the ozone hole over the South Pole. . .NASA scientists announced Monday that the Upper Atmosphere Research .Satellite has detected hydrogen fluoride, a chemical that is not made .by nature, in the stratosphere where the ozone layer is being eroded. . .Mark Scherberl, project scientist for the satellite, said the amount .of hydrogen fluoride measured by the satellite corresponds directly .to the amount of chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere. . .He said hydrogen fluoride is associated with the same chemical .reaction that creates chlorine from chlorofluorocarbons. The presence .and the amount of hydrogen fluoride, said Scherberl, proves that the .chlorine, which actually destroys the ozone, is not from volcanoes or .from other natural sources. . ."We have this thing nailed," said Anne Douglas, deputy project .director. "There is no other possibility. It all adds up." . .Atmospheric scientist Dave Hofmann said the new data from the .National Aeronautics and Space Administration "puts another nail in .the coffin" on an earlier belief that the erosion of ozone in the .stratosphere could be a natural phenomenon. . ."I know of no scientist active in the field who still believes that .the ozone loss is not related to manmade chemicals," said Hofmann, of .the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. . .Chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, are industrial chemicals used for .refrigeration and cleaning. Since the early 1980s, many scientists .have theorized that CFCs trigger chemical reactions in the .stratosphere that cause a thinning of the ozone layer. This happens .when sunlight breaks down the CFCs, freeing chlorine, which then .reacts with the ozone. . .Ozone in a layer about 60 miles above the Earth protects creatures on .the surface from excessive ultraviolet radiation from the sun. Such .radiation can cause sunburn and skin cancer, destroy some microscopic .organisms and damage some plants. . .In 1987, most nations signed an agreement known as the Montreal .protocol to phase out the use of CFCs. The agreement already has led .to a dramatic drop in the amount of CFCs being released into the .atmosphere. . .At one time, some experts were suggesting that chlorine gas from .natural sources, such as volcanoes, could cause the problem. . .But Schoeberl said the new satellite measurements leave no room for .natural possibilities. . ."This data confirms that chlorofluorocarbons are the major source of .chlorine in the stratosphere and are responsible for ozone loss," .Schoeberl said at a news conference. "We don't see any other .plausible explanation for chlorine in the stratosphere at the levels .that produce large-scale ozone losses like the Antarctic ozone hole." . .He added: "The volcanic source of chlorine is just no longer an .issue." . .Schoeberl said only one-sixth of the detected chlorine could come .from natural sources and all of the rest originates from manmade .chemicals, such as CFCs. . .Measurements in September and October detected a South Pole ozone .hole that was about the size of the North American continent. This .was the third year in a row when the hole was about that size, said .Schoeberl. . .Ozone thinning also occurs over the Northern Hemisphere, but it is .not as severe because the average polar temperatures are higher in .the north. Low temperatures, combined with sunlight, are key parts of .the chemical reaction that allows the manmade chemicals to attack .ozone, said Schoeberl. . . . .UPn 12/19 1655 Cause of ozone hole confirmed . .By LARRY SCHUTER . UPI Science and Technology Editor . .WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- NASA researchers said Monday they found .conclusive evidence showing that CFCs -- chemicals being phased out .of use in refrigeration, electronics, spray cans and foam packaging .-- are the cause of the Antarctic ozone hole. . .The evidence, gathered from a NASA satellite deployed in 1991, .includes high levels of compounds found in the ozone hole that only .could have come from CFCs, the researchers say. . ."Up to this point there has been very strong evidence, but now we can .say without a doubt that the chlorine in the stratasphere which is .causing ozone depletion in the hole is caused by the CFCs," said .James M. Russell, of NASA/Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va. . ."There are a lot of people saying chlorine is coming from natural .sources. These people have gotten a lot of attention," Russell said, .noting radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh is one of those people. . .But said, Russell, "We've got it nailed. There's no question about it .any longer." . .The ozone layer encircles the Earth and acts as a shield against most .harmful radiation from the Sun, which could cause skin cancer. . .The evidence of a cause of the ozone hole was gathered by the Upper .Atmosphere Research Satellite, deployed Sept. 15, 1991, by the Space .Shuttle Discovery, and is the largest environmental satellite ever .launched. . .Key evidence found: . .-- CFCs, or chlorofluorocarbons are found in the stratosphere, the .layer of the atmosphere which is 10 miles to 30 miles above the .surface of the Earth. The ozone layer is located at this altitude. . .-- Hydrogen fluoride, which has no natural source and is a breakdown .product of CFCs, was found in the ozone hole at levels 10 times .higher than other parts of the stratosphere outside the ozone hole. .The amount of hydrogen fluoride found indicates how much chlorine was .free to deplete the ozone layer, Russell said. . .-- Measurements of the amount of hydrogen chloride, a gas, confirmed .the amounts scientists predicted would be generated by CFCs and .natural sources. They predicted 2.6 parts per billion would come from .CFCs. The most that could come from natural sources would be 0.6 .parts per billion, Russell said. What scientists found nearly equals .the sum of the two sources: 3.3 parts per billion. . .Scientists have been concerned about CFCs and chlorine since 1987, .when aircraft obsservations showed that high concentrations of .chlorine monoxide over Antartica appeared to be destroying the ozone .layer. For each chlorine atom in the ozone layer, about 100,000 ozone .molecules are detroyed, Russell said. . .The United States and more than 100 nations have agreed to phase out .production of CFCs. Even with complete phase out of the compound, .Russell said, the chlorine levels in the ozone layer are not expected .to return to pre-CFC manufacturing levels until 2060. . . . .RTw 12/19 1534 Man-made chemicals destroying ozone, NASA says . .By Robert Kearns . .WASHINGTON, Dec 19 (Reuter) - Man-made chlorines are chiefly .responsible for eating away at the earth's protective layer of ozone .over the South Pole, according to new evidence released on Monday by .NASA scientists. . .Detailed data sent back to earth since 1991 by the orbiting Upper .Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), the largest environmental .monitor ever built, prove what NASA and other scientists have long .suspected: the ozone hole is caused by chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, .the widely used chlorine compound chemical group. . .By process of elimination, National Aeronautics and Space .Administration scientists found that the ozone-destroying acids .detected by the satellite could only be caused by industrial gases .since they do not occur naturally. . .CFCs are used as anti-freeze, insulation and as refrigerants. Their .common ingredient is chlorine. . ."CFCs are responsible for the ozone hole," Dr Mark Schoeberl, UARS .project scientist, told a press conference at the Goddard Space Flight .Centre in suburban Maryland. . .The ozone layer acts as a shield against potentially damaging .ultraviolet rays from the sun. If these rays should reach the surface .of the earth at intense levels, they could cause crop damage, cancers .and cataracts. . .No one is certain how long the hole in the ozone layer that occurs .each winter over the South Pole has been in existence. It was first .detected in 1979. . .Many scientists have blamed ozone depletion both on natural causes .such as volcanic eruptions and on widely used man-made chemicals. . .But Schoeberl said NASA's analysis of the data from UARS's 10 .monitoring instruments that measure chemicals in the upper atmosphere .left little doubt that man-made CFC gases are the culprit. . .CFCs are being phased out slowly under international agreements, but .scientists have kept up the debate over whether this is fully .warranted. . .Scientists fear that too much ozone depletion could send the swirling .hole northwards over more populated tropical and mid-latitude climes, .instead of the near-empty South Polar region. . .NASA satellite photos show that the hole now extends from the pole to .the southern tip of South America. . .Cold temperatures over the pole form ice clouds that lead to .converting chlorine into ozone-eating chlorine monoxide. In turn, .circular winds create a swirling "hole" that draws in more ozone. One .atom of chlorine can kill between 10,000 and 100,000 ozone molecules. . .On an 11-day flight last month, six astronauts aboard the space .shuttle Atlantis cruised over the edges of the hole. . .Using an array of instruments and data collected from seven .atmospheric and solar energy monitors as well as a $35 million German .satellite, the astronauts brought back new data on the hole. It is now .being studied for further clues. . REUTER ===================================================================== Who's scamming whom? Have your ever heard of the duck test? If it looks like a duck, and it walks like a duck, and it smells like a duck, well, then, it's probably a duck. Well, according to the duck test, Bailey is full of bullshit. Jay From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 27 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!agate!ames!enews.sgi.com!news.igc.apc.org!cdp!jhanson From: Jay Hanson Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Confused about population data Message-ID: References: <00984744.8D5F4900@msu.oscs.montana.edu> Date: Tue, 27 Dec 1994 09:22:20 -0800 (PST) X-Gateway: notes@igc.apc.org Lines: 61 >Topic 76 Confused about population data Response 6 of 9 >6500mll >bionet.population-bio 8:08 AM Oct 1, 1994 >(at ucsbuxa.ucsb.edu) (From News system) > >In article <9409180119.AA11813@minerva.cis.yale.edu> rannala@MINERVA.CIS.YALE.ED >U (Bruce Rannala) writes: > >>An extensive (but hardly comprehensive) list of some of the effects of >>overpopulation that are of current concern is given in the Erlich's recent >>book "the population explosion," a well documented book that is quite [snip] >concede that they can not last forever. However, we currently >have several alternatives such as nuclear fission, >solar power, and ethanol. In addition, the inevitable >rise of nuclear fusion (most estimates predict less than >5 decades for viable reactors) will for the most part eliminate >the need to search for alternate energy sources. Cheap electric >power will additionally promote electric cars and >diminish the need for fossil fuels. [snip] Mike, we have to consider the laws of thermodynamics. Where does our waste go? .ENTROPY: . ."The idea that low-entropy matter-energy is the ultimate natural .resource requires some explanation. This can be provided easily by a .short exposition of the laws of thermodynamics in terms of an apt .image borrowed from Georgescu-Roegen. Consider an hour glass. It is .a closed system in that no sand enters the glass and none leaves. The .amount of sand in the glass is constant -- no sand is created or .destroyed within the hour glass. This is the analog of the first law .of thermodynamics: there is no creation or destruction of .matter-energy. Although the quantity of sand in the hour glass is .constant, its qualitative distribution is constantly changing: the .bottom chamber is filling up and the top chamber becoming empty. This .is the analog of the second law, that entropy (bottom-chamber sand) .always increases. Sand in the top chamber (low entropy) is capable .of doing work by falling, like water at the top of a waterfall. Sand .in the bottom chamber (high entropy) has spent its capacity to do .work. The hour glass cannot be turned upside down: waste energy .cannot be recycled, except by spending more energy to power the .recycle than would be reclaimed in the amount recycled. As explained .above, we have two sources of the ultimate natural resource, the .solar and the terrestrial, and our dependence has shifted from the .former toward the latter." FOR THE COMMON GOOD -- Daly and Cobb .(1989 p.p. 11-12) . Jay "The only processes that we can rely on indefinitely are cyclical; all linear processes must eventually come to an end." "Educating a Nation: A Natural Step" -- In Context (Spring 1991) From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 27 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!spool.mu.edu!uwm.edu!lll-winken.llnl.gov!enews.sgi.com!news.igc.apc.org!cdp!jhanson From: Jay Hanson Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Hawkin and Brown Message-ID: Date: Wed, 28 Dec 1994 13:39:57 -0800 (PST) X-Gateway: notes@igc.apc.org Lines: 133 PAUL HAWKEN: "A hundred years ago, even fifty years ago, it did not seem urgent that we understand the relationship between business and a healthy environment, because natural resources seemed unlimited. But on the verge of a new millenniums we know that we have decimated ninety-seven percent of the ancient forests in North America; every day our farmers and ranchers draw out 20 billion more gallons of water from the ground than are replaced by rainfall; the Ogalala Aquifer, an underwater river beneath the Great Plains larger than any body of fresh water on earth, will dry up within thirty to forty years at present rates of extraction; globally we lose 25 billion tons of fertile topsoil every year, the equivalent of all the wheatfields in Australia. These critical losses are occurring while the world population is increasing at the rate of 90 million people per year. Quite simply, our business practices are destroying life on earth. Given current corporate practices, not one wildlife reserve, wilderness, or indigenous culture will survive the global market economy. We know that every natural system on the planet is disintegrating. The land, water, air and sea have been functionally transformed from life-supporting systems into repositories for waste. There is no polite way to say that business is destroying the world." [p. 3] THE ECCOLOGY OF COMMERCE -- Paul Hawken -- 1994 Harper LESTER BROWN AND HAL KANE ON FOOD INSECURITY: "Recent decades have witnessed record gains in food production. Even Africa has more than doubled its grain harvest. Nonetheless, an estimated 900 million people are hungry, many of them getting only one meal a day." [p. 37] "Another source of food insecurity is the growing share of the world grain harvest that is produced with the unsustainable use of land and water. When world food supplies tightened in the early seventies and grain prices doubled, farmers responded with some impressive gains in output, but part of the gains came from overplowing and overpumping. Plowing highly erodible land caused heavy soil losses, and overpumping underground water for irrigation, lowered water tables. "By definition, farmers can overplow and overpump only in the short run. For some, the short run is drawing to a close. This is leading to agricultural retrenchment as farmers pull back from the excesses of the past. No one knows how much of the world's food output is unsustainable, but the situation in the United States provides some examples. As noted earlier, the United States has converted 11 percent of its cropland to grassland or woodland because it was too erodible to sustain continuous cropping. And USDA reports that water tables are falling by 6 inches to 4 feed per year beneath one fourth of the U.S. irrigated cropland, indicating that eventual pumping cutbacks are inevitable. "If the U.S. grain output that is produced unsustainably is subtracted from total world output, the market surpluses of the last decade or so disappear. If enough data were available on soil erosion and falling water tables in other countries to extend this calculation world-wide, it would undoubtedly show sustainable world food output running well below consumption." [p. 43] ON STRATOSPHERIC OZONE LOSS "Only a handful of studies have measured the effect on crops of increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation resulting from depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer. Results thus far obtained, however, have revealed a significant threat to food production. In a six-year study of the Essex soybean, economically the leading soybean in the U.S. mid-Atlantic states, yields fell 20-25 percent under increased UV radiation. Some varieties of soybeans may be less susceptible, and through breeding it might be possible to reduce the damage. Those changes, however, would require years of work and heave research investment merely to maintain yields. "With rice, only preliminary information is available. Of the approximately 200 different cultivars of rice now screened for UV sensitivity, between one half and one third have been found to be very sensitive. Some 10 percent, however, seem to be very resistant which raises the possibility of breeding around the problem. If that becomes necessary and focuses on the narrow part of the genetic spectrum of rice that is oriented toward UV resistance, then breeding for other desirable traits will be negatively affected. "Studies on corn in the early eighties, before instrumentation was as effective as it is now, showed large reductions in corn yield from UV light as well. A repeat of these studies with state-of-the-art techniques would help clarify more precisely the consequences for corn production of stratospheric ozone depletion. Many of the effects on plants of exposure to increased ultraviolet radiation are only beginning to unfold. Preliminary results from two multiyear research projects by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Austria and the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines show that both wheat and rice suffer impaired photosynthesis and stunted growth. "For the most carefully researched crops, like soybeans, a 15-percent reduction in stratospheric ozone results in roughly a 15-percent reduction in yield. With seafood, studies have also shown essentially a one-to-one ratio between ozone depletion and marine productivity. Research from the major Antarctic biological stations has shown that at current levels, ultraviolet radiation from the sun harms phytoplankton cellular processes, including reproduction, DNA integrity, and survival. If phytoplankton abundance or health are affected, that would ripple through the entire marine food chain -- with unpredictable effects. "Because different species vary in their response to UV radiation, ozone depletion can change species composition or the abundance, size, distribution, or nutritional value of primary producers. Studies between 1987 and 1991 found that the photosynthesis and production of phytoplankton have diminished by 6-12 percent in the water around Antarctica because of increased ultraviolet radiation, reducing the food available to fish and other higher species. At the surface, where most productivity takes place, photosynthesis has been reduced by as much as 20 percent. With losses of stratospheric ozone projected to continue for several decades, even if chlorofluorocarbon manufacturing is halted soon, the potential effects on food production deserve far more monitoring and research." [p.p. 152 154] From "Full House" - 1994 Worldwatch Institute 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20036 Tel: 202/452-1999 Fax: 202/296-7365 E-mail: wwpub@igc.apc.org From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Tue Dec 27 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!usc!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!lll-winken.llnl.gov!enews.sgi.com!news.igc.apc.org!cdp!jhanson From: Jay Hanson Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Re: POPULATION: Delusions and Reali Message-ID: References: <36cvuc$n1v@phoebe.jpl.nasa.gov> Date: Tue, 27 Dec 1994 20:54:58 -0800 (PST) X-Gateway: notes@igc.apc.org Lines: 133 PAUL HAWKEN: "A hundred years ago, even fifty years ago, it did not seem urgent that we understand the relationship between business and a healthy environment, because natural resources seemed unlimited. But on the verge of a new millenniums we know that we have decimated ninety-seven percent of the ancient forests in North America; every day our farmers and ranchers draw out 20 billion more gallons of water from the ground than are replaced by rainfall; the Ogalala Aquifer, an underwater river beneath the Great Plains larger than any body of fresh water on earth, will dry up within thirty to forty years at present rates of extraction; globally we lose 25 billion tons of fertile topsoil every year, the equivalent of all the wheatfields in Australia. These critical losses are occurring while the world population is increasing at the rate of 90 million people per year. Quite simply, our business practices are destroying life on earth. Given current corporate practices, not one wildlife reserve, wilderness, or indigenous culture will survive the global market economy. We know that every natural system on the planet is disintegrating. The land, water, air and sea have been functionally transformed from life-supporting systems into repositories for waste. There is no polite way to say that business is destroying the world." [p. 3] THE ECCOLOGY OF COMMERCE -- Paul Hawken -- 1994 Harper LESTER BROWN AND HAL KANE ON FOOD INSECURITY: "Recent decades have witnessed record gains in food production. Even Africa has more than doubled its grain harvest. Nonetheless, an estimated 900 million people are hungry, many of them getting only one meal a day." [p. 37] "Another source of food insecurity is the growing share of the world grain harvest that is produced with the unsustainable use of land and water. When world food supplies tightened in the early seventies and grain prices doubled, farmers responded with some impressive gains in output, but part of the gains came from overplowing and overpumping. Plowing highly erodible land caused heavy soil losses, and overpumping underground water for irrigation, lowered water tables. "By definition, farmers can overplow and overpump only in the short run. For some, the short run is drawing to a close. This is leading to agricultural retrenchment as farmers pull back from the excesses of the past. No one knows how much of the world's food output is unsustainable, but the situation in the United States provides some examples. As noted earlier, the United States has converted 11 percent of its cropland to grassland or woodland because it was too erodible to sustain continuous cropping. And USDA reports that water tables are falling by 6 inches to 4 feed per year beneath one fourth of the U.S. irrigated cropland, indicating that eventual pumping cutbacks are inevitable. "If the U.S. grain output that is produced unsustainably is subtracted from total world output, the market surpluses of the last decade or so disappear. If enough data were available on soil erosion and falling water tables in other countries to extend this calculation world-wide, it would undoubtedly show sustainable world food output running well below consumption." [p. 43] ON STRATOSPHERIC OZONE LOSS "Only a handful of studies have measured the effect on crops of increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation resulting from depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer. Results thus far obtained, however, have revealed a significant threat to food production. In a six-year study of the Essex soybean, economically the leading soybean in the U.S. mid-Atlantic states, yields fell 20-25 percent under increased UV radiation. Some varieties of soybeans may be less susceptible, and through breeding it might be possible to reduce the damage. Those changes, however, would require years of work and heave research investment merely to maintain yields. "With rice, only preliminary information is available. Of the approximately 200 different cultivars of rice now screened for UV sensitivity, between one half and one third have been found to be very sensitive. Some 10 percent, however, seem to be very resistant which raises the possibility of breeding around the problem. If that becomes necessary and focuses on the narrow part of the genetic spectrum of rice that is oriented toward UV resistance, then breeding for other desirable traits will be negatively affected. "Studies on corn in the early eighties, before instrumentation was as effective as it is now, showed large reductions in corn yield from UV light as well. A repeat of these studies with state-of-the-art techniques would help clarify more precisely the consequences for corn production of stratospheric ozone depletion. Many of the effects on plants of exposure to increased ultraviolet radiation are only beginning to unfold. Preliminary results from two multiyear research projects by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Austria and the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines show that both wheat and rice suffer impaired photosynthesis and stunted growth. "For the most carefully researched crops, like soybeans, a 15-percent reduction in stratospheric ozone results in roughly a 15-percent reduction in yield. With seafood, studies have also shown essentially a one-to-one ratio between ozone depletion and marine productivity. Research from the major Antarctic biological stations has shown that at current levels, ultraviolet radiation from the sun harms phytoplankton cellular processes, including reproduction, DNA integrity, and survival. If phytoplankton abundance or health are affected, that would ripple through the entire marine food chain -- with unpredictable effects. "Because different species vary in their response to UV radiation, ozone depletion can change species composition or the abundance, size, distribution, or nutritional value of primary producers. Studies between 1987 and 1991 found that the photosynthesis and production of phytoplankton have diminished by 6-12 percent in the water around Antarctica because of increased ultraviolet radiation, reducing the food available to fish and other higher species. At the surface, where most productivity takes place, photosynthesis has been reduced by as much as 20 percent. With losses of stratospheric ozone projected to continue for several decades, even if chlorofluorocarbon manufacturing is halted soon, the potential effects on food production deserve far more monitoring and research." [p.p. 152 154] From "Full House" - 1994 Worldwatch Institute 1776 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20036 Tel: 202/452-1999 Fax: 202/296-7365 E-mail: wwpub@igc.apc.org From owner-population-bio@net.bio.net Wed Dec 28 22:00:00 1994 Path: biosci!bloom-beacon.mit.edu!usc!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!lll-winken.llnl.gov!enews.sgi.com!news.igc.apc.org!cdp!jhanson From: Jay Hanson Newsgroups: bionet.population-bio Subject: Re: Carrying Capacity Topics Message-ID: References: Date: Thu, 29 Dec 1994 10:36:54 -0800 (PST) X-Gateway: notes@igc.apc.org Lines: 176 /** ccn.carrying-c: 9.0 **/ ** Topic: Optimum U.S. Population? ** ** Written 12:29 PM Jan 26, 1992 by ccn in cdp:ccn.carrying-c ** HAS THE UNITED STATES ALREADY EXCEEDED ITS OPTIMUM POPULATION SIZE? Some observers are alarmed that the U.S. population is increasing by three million people every year, making it the fastest growing industrialized nation. Other people are convinced that population growth is beneficial and should be encouraged. Since there is no consensus on this crucial public policy issue, an essential contribution to the debate would be to undertake to determine the "carrying capacity" of the United States. Carrying capacity refers to the number of individuals who can be supported in a given land area over the long term without degrading the physical, ecological, cultural and social environment. For a long time, the concept was applied by biologists only to animal populations. It was understood that if a species exceeded the carrying capacity of its geographical region, it would eventually experience a die-off, with the remaining survivors in rough balance with the carrying capacity of the area. Human beings were constrained by these same natural limits for thousands of years. Our ancestors' numbers were maintained at a sustainable level by disease, famine and drought. Although the advent of technology permits human beings to exceed natural carrying capacity limits in some respects, the ultimate size of any human population is still constrained by amounts of arable land, potable water, and other considerations. The unique limiting factor of energy must also now be added to any modern society's list of required assets. Has contemporary American society exceeded its carrying capacity in terms of these vital natural resources? Does the fact that we are increasingly forced to reach beyond our borders for energy and other resources to sustain a growing population indicate we are already overpopulated? Where is the competition for resources with other expanding populations in the rest of the world leading? Land is essential for food production and the supply of other basic human needs, such as fiber, fuel and shelter. However, between one million and two million acres of agricultural land in the United States are being converted annually into roads, homes and cities or lost through erosion. Once land is paved over, it can never be used as farmland again. We are currently losing topsoil 18 times faster than replacement levels; erosion is a problem on one-third of U.S. cropland; salinization is increasing; in some areas, soil has become so severely degraded that it has had to be abandoned. Americans do not have any more land available to feed our rapidly increasing population, since nearly all the arable land in the United States is already in production. Water supply is crucial in determining the size and location of human populations. Yet groundwater in this country, much of which was stored during the Ice Age and is non- renewable, is currently being pumped out of the ground 25 percent faster than it is being replenished. Ninety-eight percent of our rivers have already been dammed, maximizing that resource. And our growing population consumes the remaining water, especially in the West where consumption is highest and supplies are lowest. Some California communities have turned to desalination of the ocean to ensure future water supplies, but have found it to be not only costly but pollution-and energy-intensive. Energy is another prime limiting factor in determining carrying capacity. One often overlooked aspect of American dependence on foreign oil is that the remarkably high crop yields distinctive of American agriculture depend on the availability of cheap fossil energy for fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation, cultivation and harvesting. This technology degrades and pollutes the environment. According to Drs. David and Marcia Pimentel of Cornell University, three thousand calories of fossil energy are being used to produce one thousand calories of food. This 3:1 ratio is clearly unsustainable, and leaves those dependent upon American agricultural productivity highly vulnerable to future fossil-fuel crises. According to Dr. John Holdren of the University of California, if the United States had the population of 135 million with which it fought World War II, we could still enjoy today's level of per-capita energy consumption without using any coal or importing any oil. Although it is tempting to believe that the United States can support many more people, it is a myth that the "wide open spaces" of the arid West will provide the land necessary for agriculture of human settlement. Half the West was never claimed under the various 19th-century land- grant laws, mainly because it was useless for farming. Nine-tenths of the Western part of our country consists of what is known as "marginal land" too dry, cold, mountainous or rocky to support any considerable population over time. Fifty million people now live in the American West; Nevada alone grew by 50.1 percent between 1980 and 1990. But Dr. Dennis Brownridge of the University of California estimates that the area's carrying capacity has already been exceeded by a factor of two or three. As resources are drawn in from elsewhere to support growth in such marginal areas, the population will simply continue to grow and demand will increase while the carrying capacity of the source areas declines. Although it is true that the constraints imposed by limited land, energy and water provide a basic foundation for how many individuals can be supported in a given ar