Fwd: Forwarded: Expert Judgment References

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From: Raymond Czaplewski:S28A
Date: ## 02/10/95 13:15 ##

Previous comments:
From: Bruce G. Marcot:R6/PNW
Date: ## 02/07/95 09:10 ##
FYI ... I compiled this list of references on use of expert judgment 
in ecological modeling and decision analysis.  Thought this might be 
of some use to some of you ...  I'd appreciate hearing of any key 
references that I've missed.  ....  "Courtesy of the Interior 
Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project, Walla Walla WA"

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SELECTED REFERENCES ON DATA ANALYSIS BASED ON EXPERT JUDGMENT

Bruce G. Marcot
Wildlife Ecologist
USDA Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station

26 January 1995




REFERENCES ON DELPHI METHOD IN ECOLOGY

   Richey, J. S., R. R. Horner, and B. W. Mar.  1985.  The Delphi technique
in environmental assessment.  II.  Consensus on critical issues in
environmental monitoring program design.  J. Env. Managem. 21:147-159.

   Rickey, J. S., B. W. Mar, and R. R. Horner.  1985.  The Delphi technique
in environmental assessment.  I.  Implementation and effectiveness.  J.
Env. Managem. 21:135-146.

   Schuster, E. G., S. S. Frissell, E. E. Baker, and R. S. Loveless.
1985.  The Delphi method: application to elk habitat quality.  USDA Forest
Service Research Paper INT-353.   32 pp.

   Zuboy, J. R.  1981.  A new tool for fishery managers: the Delphi
technique.  No. Amer. J. Fish. Manage. 1:55-59.


REFERENCES ON BAYESIAN ANALYSIS, FROM ECOLOGICAL LITERATURE

   Clark, R. D., and R. T. Lackey.  1976.  A technique for improving
decision analysis in fisheries and wildlife management.  Virginia Journal
of Science 27:199-201.

   Gazey, W. J., and M. J. Staley.  1986.  Population estimation from
mark-recapture experiments using a sequential Bayes algorithm.  Ecology
67:941-951.

   Hedges, L. V., and I. Olkin.  1985.  Statistical methods for
meta-analysis.  Academic Press,  

   Holl, S. A.  1982.  Evaluation of bighorn sheep habitat.  Desert Bighorn
Council Transactions :47-49.

   Hunter, J. E., and F. L. Schmidt.  1990.  Methods of meta-analysis.
Sage Publications, Newbury Park.  592 pp.

   Johnson, D. H.  1985.  Improved estimates from sample surveys with
empirical Bayes methods.  Proceedings of the American Statistical
Association :395-400.

   Johnson, D. H.  1989.  An empirical Bayes approach to analyzing
recurring animal surveys.  Ecology 70:945-952.

   Lee, D. C., and B. E. Rieman.  1994.  Bayesian viability assessment
module (BayVAM): a tool for assessing the population viability of resident
salmonids.  DRAFT 8/12/94.  USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Research
Station.  44 pp.

   Milne, B. T., K. M. Johnston, and R. T. T. Forman.  1989.
Scale-dependent proximity of wildlife habitat in a spatially-neutral
Bayesian model.  Landscape Ecology 2:101-110.

   Reckhow, K. H.  1990.  Bayesian inference in non-replicated ecological
studies.  Ecology 71:2053-2059.

   Williams, G. L., D. R. Russell, and W. K. Seitz.  1977.  Pattern
recognition as a tool in the ecological analysis of habitat.  Pp. 521-531
in:    Classification, inventory, and analysis of fisha and wildlife
habitat.  USDI Fish and Wildlife Serv., FWS/OBS-78/76.  604 pp.   
REFERENCES ON BAYESIAN ANALYSIS, FROM ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE LITERATURE

   Bretthorst, G. L.  1988.  Bayesian spectrum analysis and parameter
estimation.  Springer-Verlag,  

   Charniak, E.  1991.  Bayesian networks without tears.  AI Magazine
12(4):50-63.

   Denning, P. J.  1989.  Bayesian learning.  American Scientist
77:216-218.

   Haas, T. C.  1991.  Partial validation of Bayesian belief network
advisory systems.  AI Applications 5(4):59-71.

   Haas, T. C.  1992.  A Bayes network model of district ranger decision
making.  AI Applications 6(3):72-88.

   Haas, T. C., H. T. Mowrer, and W. D. Shepperd.  1994.  Modeling aspen
stand growth with a temporal Bayes network.  AI Applications 8(1):15-28.

   Jaynes, E. T.  1986.  Bayesian methods: general background.  Pp. 1-25
in:  J. H. Justice, ed.  Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods in applied
statistics.  Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.  

   Morawski, P.  1989.  Programming Bayesian belief networks.  AI Expert
August:74-79.

   Morawski, P.  1989.  Understanding Bayesian belief networks.  AI Expert
May:44-48.

   Olson, R. L., J. L. Willers, and T. L. Wagner.  1990.  A framework for
modeling uncertain reasoning in ecosystem management II.  Bayesian belief
networks.  AI Applications in Natural Resource Management 4(4):11-24.
REFERENCES ON USE OF DECISION ANALYSIS METHODS IN ECOLOGY

   Arquiga, M. C., L. W. Canter, and D. I. Nelson.  1992.  Risk assessment
principles in environmental impact studies.  The Environmental Professional
14(3):204-219.

   Bartell, S. M., R. H. Gardner, and R. V. O'Neill.  1992.  Ecological
risk estimation.  Lewis Pub., Boca Raton, FL.  272 pp.

   Behn, R. D., and J. W. Vaupel.  1982.  Quick analysis for busy decision
makers.  Basic Books, New York.  

   Bentley, W. R., and H. F. Kaiser.  1967.  Sequential decisions in timber
management - a Christmas tree case study.  Journal of Forestry
(Oct):714-719.

   Bergman, A.  1969.  Evaluation of costs and benefits of tree improvement
programs.  Second World Consultation on Forest Tree Breeding, 7-16 August
1969, Washington. 

   Beuter, J. H.  1991.  Risk assessment in forest resource policy: a
political perspective.  Pp. 1-10 in:    Society for Risk Analysis annual
meeting 8-11 December 1991.  U.S. Department of Agriculture, Baltimore,
MD.  

   Brown, D. A.  1992.  Recognizing the limits of risk assessment.  The
Environmental Professional 14(3):185.

   Buckley, J. J.  1986.  Stochastic dominance: an approach to decision
making under risk.  Risk Analysis 6:35-41.

   Burgman, M. A., S. Ferson, and H. R. Akcakaya.  1993.  Risk assessment
in conservation biology.  Chapman and Hall, London.  

   Cairns, J., Jr, and P. V. McCormick.  1992.  Developing an
ecosystem-based capability for ecological risk assessments.  The
Environmental Professional 14(3):186-196.

   Cairns, J., Jr, B. R. Niederlehner, and D. R. Orvos, ed.  1992.
Predicting ecological risk.   Princeton Scientific Pub. Co., Inc.,
Priceton, NJ.  400 pp.

   Calabrese, E. J., and L. A. Baldwin, ed.  1993.  Performing ecological
risk assessments.   Lewis Pub., Boca Raton, FL.  250 pp.

   CEQ.  1984.  Special report:  risk assessment and risk management.  Pp.
211-246 in:  C. o. E. Quality, ed.  Environmental quality.   

   Chess, C.  1990.  Telling the public about risks.  Chemical and
Engineering News Jun 11:44-45.

   Clark, R. D., and R. T. Lackey.  1976.  A technique for improving
decision analysis in fisheries and wildlife management.  Virginia Journal
of Science 27:199-201.
   Coughlan, B. A. K., and C. L. Armour.  1992.  Group decision-making
techniques for natural resource management applications.  Resource
Publication 185.  USDI Fish and Wildlife Service.  55 pp.

   Coulson, R. N., and M. C. Saunders.  1987.  Computer-assisted
decision-making as applied to entomology.  Ann. Rev. Entomol. 32:415-437.

   Crow, T. R.  1988.  Managing for biological diversity within a landscape
context.  Draft ms.  

   Davis, J. B., and E. L. Shafer.  1984.  The use of paired comparison
techniques for evaluating forest research.  Pp. 512-516 in:    New forests
for a changing world.  Soc. Amer. Foresters,  

   de Steiguer, J. E.  1990.  Using subjective judgment to assess air
pollution effects on forests.  Pp. 131-140 in:    XIX World Congress, 5-11
August 1990:  Science in forestry, IUFRO's second century.  Canadian IUFRO
World Congress Organizing Committee, Quebec, Canada.  

   Draper, D., D. P. Gaver Jr, P. K. Goel, J. B. Greenhouse, L. V. Hedges,
C. N. Morris, J. R. Tucker, and C. M. Waternaux.  1992.  Combining
information.  Statistical issues and opportunities for research.
Contemporary statistics No. 1.  National Academy Press.  217 pp.

   EHC.  1989.  Chemicals, the press, and the public: a journalist's guide
to reporting on chemicals in the community.  Environmental Health Center, a
div. of National Safety Council.  Washington, D.C.  124 pp.

   Ferson, S.  1988.  Microcomputer software for stochastic demography and
ecological risk analysis.  The American Statistician 42:273.

   Fischhoff, B., S. Lichtenstein, P. Slovic, S. Derby, and R. Keeney.
1981.  Acceptable risk.  Cambridge Univ. Press,  

   Fowles, R.  1988.  MICRO-EGA.  The American Statistician 42:274.

   Ginzburg, L. R., S. Ferson, and H. R. Akcakaya.  1990.
Reconstructibility of density dependence and the conservative assessment of
extinction risks.  Conservation Biology 4:63-70.

   Hadden, S. G.  1989.  A citizen's right to know: risk communication and
public policy.  Westview Press, Boulder CO.  239 pp.

   Holling, C. S.  1984.  Adaptive environmental assessment and
management.  John Wiley & Sons, New York.  377 pp.

   Lein, J. K.  1992.  Expressing environmental risk using fuzzy variables:
a preliminary examination.  The Environmental Professional 14(3):257-267.

   Lundregn, A. L.  1984.  Strategies for coping with uncertainty in forest
resource planning, management, and use.  Soc. Amer. Foresters Convention,
New forests for a changing world :574-578.
   Maguire, L. A.  1986.  An analysis of augmentation strategies for
grizzly populations: the Cabinet- Yak Ecosystem as an example.  Rpt. to
U.S. Forest Service, contract no. 40-3187- 4-1748.   36 pp.

   Maguire, L. A.  1986.  Using decision analysis to manage endangered
species populations.  J. Env. Mgmt. 22:345-360.

   Maguire, L. A.  1991.  Decision analysis and environmental dispute
resolution: partners in resolving resource management conflicts.  in:
Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting 8-11 December 1991.  U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Baltimore, MD.  

   Maguire, L. A.  1991.  Risk analysis for conservation biologists.
Conservation Biology 5(1):123-125.

   Maguire, L. A.  1991.  Using decision analysis to manage endangered
species.  Pp. 139-152 in:  D. J. Decker, M. E. Krasny, G. R. Goff, C. R.
Smith, and D. W. Gross, ed.  Challenges in the conservation of biological
resources.  A practitioner's guide.  Westview Press, Boulder CO.  

   Maguire, L. A., T. W. Clark, R. Crete, J. Cada, C. Groves, M. L.
Shaffer, and U. S. Seal.  1988.  Black-footed ferret recovery in Montana: a
decision analysis.  Wildl. Soc. Bull. 16:111-120.

   Maguire, L. A., and R. C. Lacy.  1990.  Allocating scarce resources for
conservation of endangered subspecies: partitioning zoo space for tigers.
Conservation Biology 4:157-166.

   Maguire, L. A., U. S. Seal, and P. F. Brussard.  1987.  Managing
critically endangered species: the Sumatran Rhino as a case study.  Pp.
141-158 in:  M. E. Soule, ed.  Viable populations for conservation.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge MA.  

   Maguire, L. A., and C. Servheen.  1992.  Integrating biological and
sociological concerns in endangered species management:  augmentation of
grizzly bear populations.  Cons. Biol. 6(3):426-434.

   Marcot, B. G.  1986.  Concepts of risk analysis as applied to viable
population assessment and planning.  in:  B. A. Wilcox, P. F. Brussard, and
B. G. Marcot, ed.  The management of viable populations: theory,
applications, and case studies.  Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford,
CA.  

   Marcot, B. G.  1987.  Use of decision tree analysis for assessing
wildlife-silviculture relationships.  USFS Unpub Report 

   Marcot, B. G., and H. Salwasser.  1991.  Views on risk analysis for
wildlife planning and management in USDA Forest Service.  Presented at Soc.
for Risk Analysis Ann. Mtg., 8-11 Dec. 1991, Baltimore MD 

   McNay, R. S., R. E. Page, and A. Campbell.  1987.  Application of
expert-based decision models to promote integrated management of forests.
Trans. No. Amer. Wildl. Nat. Resourc. Conf. 52:82-91.
   Medley, T. L., and J. H. Payne.  1991.  A model for ecological risk
assessment for federal regulatory decisions: field testing and release of
exotic biocontrol organisms.  Pp. 1-9 in:    Society for Risk Analysis
annual meeting 8-11 December 1991.  U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Baltimore, MD.  

   Millsap, B. A., J. A. Gore, D. E. Runde, and S. I. Cerulean.  1990.
Setting priorities for the conservation of fish and wildlife species in
Florida.  Wildl. Monogr. 111:1-57.

   Nash, S.  1991.  What price nature? Future ecological risk assessments
may chart the values, and the odds.  BioScience 41(6):677-680.

   Newberry, J. D.  1994.  Scientific opinion, not process.  J. Forestry
92(4):44.

   Nnaji, S., J. S. Fisher, and S. V. Shabica.  1983.  An application of
decision analysis to shoreline management.  J. Env. Mgt. 17:35-46.

   Norton, S., M. McVey, J. Colt, J. Durda, and R. Hegner.  1988.  Review
of ecological risk assessment methods.  US Environmental Protection
Agency.  (sections numbered separately) pp.

   Raiffa, H.  1968.  Decision analysis: introductory lectures on choices
under certainty.  Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.  

   Reading, R. P., and S. R. Kellert.  1993.  Attitudes toward a proposed
reintroduction of black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes).  Cons. Biol.
7(3):569-580.

   Reagan, D. P., M. Firko, and F. B. Taub.  1994.  Meeting reviews:  The
role of ecologists in ecological risk assessments.  Bull. Ecol. Soc. Amer.
75(2):96-99.

   Richey, J. S., R. R. Horner, and B. W. Mar.  1985.  The Delphi technique
in environmental assessment.  II.  Consensus on critical issues in
environmental monitoring program design.  J. Env. Managem. 21:147-159.

   Rickey, J. S., B. W. Mar, and R. R. Horner.  1985.  The Delphi technique
in environmental assessment.  I.  Implementation and effectiveness.  J.
Env. Managem. 21:135-146.

   Rossi, R. E., P. W. Borth, and J. J. Tollefson.  1993.  Stochastic
simulation for characterizing ecological spatial patterns and appraising
risk.  Ecol. Applic. 3(4):719-735.

   Rowe, W. D.  1977.  An anatomy of risk.  John Wiley & Sons,  

   Schuster, E. G., S. S. Frissell, E. E. Baker, and R. S. Loveless.
1985.  The Delphi method: application to elk habitat quality.  USDA Fores
Service Research Paper INT-353.   32 pp.

   Shaffer, M. L.  1983.  Determining minimum viable population sizes for
the grizzly bear.  Int. Conf. Bear Res. and Manage. 5:133-139.
   Soule, M. E.  1987.  Viable populations for conservation.  Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge.  189 pp.

   Soule, M. E.  1989?  Risk analysis for the concho water snake.
Endangered Species Update 6(10):19,22-25.

   Spetzler, C. S., and C. S. StaelvonHolstein.  1975.  Probabilitiy
encoding in decision analysis.  Manage. Sci. 22:340-358.

   Starfield, A. M., and A. M. Herr.  1991.  A response to Maguire.
(Letters).  Conservation Biology 5:435.

   Starr, C.  1985.  Risk management, assessment, and acceptability.  Risk
Analysis 5:97-102.

   Stout, D. J., and R. A. Streeter.  1992.  Ecological risk assessment:
its role in risk management.  The Environmental Professional 14(3):197-203.

   Suter, G. W., II, L. W. Barnthouse, S. M. Bartell, D. Mackay, S.
Paterson, and T. Mill, ed.  1992.  Ecological risk assessment.   Lewis
Pub., Boca Raton, FL.  560 pp.

   Thompson, G. G.  1991.  Determining minimum viable populations under the
Endangered Species Act.  NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS F/NWC-198, U.S.
Dept. of Commerce.  Natl. Marine Fisheries Service, Seattle WA.  78 pp.

   Townsley, J. J.  1988.  Predicted impacts of expert systems upon
employee skill levels and organization structure in the U.S.D.A. Forest
Service.  M.S.  Thesis, Department of Forest Management, Oregon State
University.  Corvallis OR.  72 pp.

   Unwin, S. D.  1986.  A fuzzy set theoretic foundation for vagueness in
uncertainty analysis.  Risk Analysis 6:27-34.

   Walters, C.  1986.  Adaptive management of renewable resources.
MacMillan Pub. Co., New York.  

   Wartenberg, D., and C. Chess.  1992.  Risky business:  the inexact art
of hazard assessment.  The Sciences March/April:17-21.

   Wilcox, B. A., P. F. Brussard, and B. G. Marcot.  1986.  The management
of viable populations: theory, applications, and case studies.  Center for
Conservation Biology, Stanford, CA.  

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