redoak at forestmeister.com
Mon Jun 2 04:12:43 EST 1997
> Figuring a tripling or quadrupling of higher grade lumber prices is over
This is of course the core of the problem. We might be able to pretend
we can predict the biological respone in a few decades and even that is
stretching it. Nature is just too unpredicatable.
But predict timber prices in 30 years? We can't even predict them next
year. This is why I can't see buying expensive software to figure this
stuff out. The software always looks impressive and implies that this is
a scientific endeavor. But doing the calculations on a computer doesn't
make them any more accurate if the assumptions are wrong. Or GIGO as the
But still, my intuition is that on a good pine site, you could find
worse ways to invest a modest amount of money than into pruning. Most of
my clients are upper midde class or better. If they spend a few hundred
after subsidy on a pruning job; they really don't care if this
investment will yield a high rate of return in 30 years. They like the
fact that the woods look nicer and it helps them to fulfill their state
forestry tax program that is earning them NOW a 95% reduction in the
real estate tax. So in that sense they're satisfied in the investment.
If it really does pay off in 30 years, the payoff probably won't be to
the same landowner, it will remain a hidden asset until cashed in and
the future landowner, forester, sawmill and society at large will
benefit from the improved product.
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