The Truth ISN'T Out There

Mike Hagen mhagen at
Wed Aug 26 10:55:02 EST 1998

So how can you forecast grade improvement when it's not just based on
diameter? Statistical ranges?  Has anyone worked with Jim Arney's

By the way Karl, I see you'll be presenting at the Science of Managing
Forests To Sustain Water Resources conference in Sturbridge.
Congratulations and I wish it wasn't so far away, or I'd attend.  

KMorrisD wrote:
>  bobndwoods at (BOBNDWOODS) wrote:
> What we leave are the
> >pulpwood and chip-n-saw trees that are closest to growing into the next
> >product
> >class. The emphasis is on leaving the fastest value growth in the woods.  The
> >grade sawlogs are only increasing in volume.
> Bob,
> Sounds like you're doing good value growth management for your clients.  You
> just need a way of documenting how good, so you can convince those guys who may
> want to cut those nice crop trees.
> If you have a 12" DBH chip-n-saw tree with 100 bf (Intnl) at $20/Mbf (I'm just
> guessing at value), that tree is worth $2.  But if you grow it for 10 years
> into a 16"DBH tree with 250 bf at $100/Mbf (guessing again, also on growth
> rate), then it's worth $25.
> Take out a table of interest rate multipliers, or use a financial
> calculator--or the int function in a spreadsheet, and you find that tree has
> been growing at 29% annual compound interest.  Pretty good.
> The rate of volume increase is about 10% per year.  The other 19% is all grade
> value increase.  Then you add on market value increase of say 4% (guessing
> again)  and you're up around 33%.
> You could work up some typical scenarios in a spreadsheet and show them to
> those potential clients and ask them if they can do better in the stockmarket
> with the difference between you and the high-grader.  You're creating that
> value for them...well helping Mother Nature actually.
> INFORM and WINYIELD can do all these calculations on actual inventory data for
> you real fast, plus subtract for carrying and management costs.  They're both
> really slick programs, and the only ones I know of that do the grade value
> part.  But could be all you need is a little spreadsheet program.
> Joe has volunteered to do something like this in JavaScript for his and my
> website (in progress), so stay tuned! <G>  It should be pretty cool.
> Karl

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