Futures?

Mike Hagen mhagen at olympus.net
Mon Aug 31 14:55:33 EST 1998


Out here they worship Random Lengths.

The cruiser had better be as good at picking out the sorts as the buyer
or he's history too.  Seat of the pants estimates may get a sale once in
a while, but a good spreadsheet will keep you in business for years.  A
high value timber sale in WA will be partial cut with a mixture of
residual old growth, some second growth in the 70-90 year range, a lot
in the 35-40 class and some acres of young stuff in need of expensive
TSI.  Your cruise card will use most of the grades and easily 20 or so
local sorts. Most of the dollar value will be in the 70-90 year class
since that's probably high grade export but the bulk of volume will
likely be in the 35-45 class: cheap dimension lumber, chip&saw and pulp.
And you've got to figure in the TSI, which the good timber is paying
for.  

  Back when state timber could be exported (it can't now) the bid
sessions were high entertainment.  Buyers from the big exporters would
be furiously number crunching on their HP200s, raising each other nickle
by nickle for an hour or so.  Timber Sale officers and spectators could
go through a LOT of donuts and coffee.  

Joseph Zorzin wrote:
> 
> Ron Wenrich wrote:
> 
> > Marketing is also dependent on the quality of the timber.  Average timber
> > brings average prices.  High quality timber brings very high premiums.
> > Experienced buyers and producers know what the insides of a tree looks like,
> > and can grade trees on the stump much better than other professionals.
> >
> > RDW
> 
> With my last big sale, one of the interested parties wanted me to show
> him the lot a second time so he could bring along a forester for a large
> veneer plant because that's where most of the value of the lot was- and
> if he bought the lot he'd sell the veneer logs to that forester. I
> watched in amazement as the veneer guy checked out all the good oaks. He
> really could tell exactly how much veneer he could get out of them. It
> was quite an experience for me to get to talk to a guy with that much
> knowledge. And he has to get it right because so much money is involved.
> 
> The veneer guy pays the logger after he sees the cut log. If the mill
> doesn't get what it pays for, that veneer buyer is history. But the guys
> that can do this right make a very good income- but they have a huge
> territory to cover, so they're on the road a lot. I think this guy was
> from Columbia Plywood somewhere in NY state. Maybe you know the mill
> since you're not that far from me. He or one of his associates probably
> gets into to PA too.
> 
> Joe



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