OT: Nostradamus on Bush

[Larry Caldwell]

In article <3a4abf7f.58666410 at news.escape.ca>, wraith7 at mb.sympatico.ca 
writes: 

> 	So, genius, tell me why the US has the dubious distinction of
> having the highest number of gun-related deaths in just about every
> category there is when compared to every other industrialized country
> in the world? Duh...could it be because everybody and their dog owns a
> gun? Are you suggesting that every gun related death is due to some
> criminal with an unregistered gun? Care to explain why the homicide
> rate for children under the age of 15 by guns is 5 times higher in the
> US than the next 25 industrialized countries combined? Why the suicide
> rate is twice the next 25 industrialized countries combined? And
> before you quote me chapter and verse of the "right to bear arms"
> nonsense, remember the 2nd amendment to your own constitution of 1791
> reads, "A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a
> free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not
> be infringed." Now, perhaps you could explain exactly how a homicide
> rate among children 5 times that of most of the industrialized world
> aids in the formation of a well regulated militia?

Probably because you have made up a bunch of bogus stats.  For instance 
the suicide rate in the USA is 10.8/100,000, about 90% of the Canadian 
rate.  That is hardly twice the rate of the next 25 industrialized 
countries combined, and substantially less than the suicide rate in 
Canada.  I also found the following info with a quick web search:

from: http://rkba.org/research/kopel/kids-gun.html

"    Data from other countries appear to support Kleck's conclusion that 
gun control is not an effective method for reducing suicide.  While 
teenage suicide has remained stable in the U.S. in the last 15 years, 
teenage suicide has risen sharply in Europe, where gun control is much 
stricter.  In Great Britain, where gun control laws are extremely severe, 
and the gun ownership rate is less than 1/10th of that in America, 
adolescent suicide has risen by more than 25% in just five years.

    Similarly, Japan outlaws handguns and rifles, and makes shotguns 
extremely difficult to obtain.  Yet teenage suicide is 30% more frequent 
in Japan than in America."

That doesn't tell the whole story, since the suicide rate for all ages in 
Japan is over 3x the US rate.

The same page has this information:

"    One of the more recent studies was conducted by University of 
Washington epidemiologist Brandon Centerwall.  He found homicide rates in 
the United States, Canada, and South Africa rose steeply about 10 to 15 
years after the introduction of television in each nation.  He noted that 
after television was introduced in Canada, the homicide rate nearly 
doubled, even though per capita firearms ownership rates remained stable.  
In the United States, the rise in firearms homicide was paralleled by an 
equally large rise in homicide with the hands and feet.  The data 
therefore implies that the underlying cause of the homicide increase was 
not a sudden surge in availability of firearms, since there was no surge 
in availability of hands and feet, and hand and foot homicide rose as 
sharply as firearms homicide.  South Africa allowed the introduction of 
television many years after Canada and the United States did (because the 
apartheid government feared that television would be destabilizing); in 
South Africa too, the homicide rate soared after the first generation of 
television children grew up."

So you see, if you were really interested in saving lives you would 
restrict children's access to television.  Of course, like everyone in 
industrialized nations, Canadians love to park their children in front of 
the TV when they need a break.  Television access will never be limited.  
Canadians have rights, after all.

There is no doubt that the USA has a homicide problem, but the problem is 
social and economic, not hardware.  

"The bad news is that homicide rates in urban areas
of concentrated poverty remain far higher than
they are in the rest of the United States. Our
national homicide rate therefore remains far
higher than it is in any other economically
advanced nation. Although the rates of
white-on-white homicide in the rural United States
remain much higher than national homicide rates in
many other comparable nations (Zimring and
Hawkins, 1997: 80), the extraordinarily high
concentrations of homicide in certain inner-city
areas drive the national homicide rate to a degree
that few Americans appreciate.

[ ... ]

"It is equally safe to assume that 90 percent or
more of all Americans live within census tracts or
small geographical neighborhoods where the
homicide rate is well below the national average.
Even in cities like Chicago, the homicide rate in
middle-class neighborhoods such as Hyde Park is
comparable to that of Sweden and is 80 percent
lower than the national average. Yet 100 yards to
the south of Hyde Park lies Woodlawn, where the
homicide rate in 1996 was 12 times the national
average (Crime Prevention Effectiveness Program,
ongoing research)."

The whole article can be found at 

http://www.ncjrs.org/txtfiles/172210.txt

It is well worth reading if you are really interested in controlling gun 
violence.  Pay particular attention to the misappropriation of prevention 
funding.

Gun violence in the USA is an almost wholly urban problem.  It should be 
solved in an urban context, leaving rural people to pursue their lives 
unhindered.  Since rural people elected the next president, urban 
pressure groups are going to have to solve their own problem instead of 
foisting it on everyone else.  How pleasant.




-- 
The curse of the Earth is Mankind, and
The curse of Mankind is overpopulation.