Declining Oil Reserves

Karl Davies karl at
Mon Feb 21 15:07:27 EST 2000

We hear all kinds of estimates on how much oil is left in the ground and
when it will run out.  Most forecasts are pretty rosy, but are they
accurate?  And perhaps more importantly, are they really significant?

What the oil companies and governments generally fail to mention in
their forecasts is when demand is likely to exceed supplies.  That time
comes much sooner than when supplies run out, and in the case of oil, it
will have profound effects on all economic activity.

There's a growing body of evidence indicating that we are currently very
near the peak of global oil production, and that supplies are about to
begin their inevitable decline.  Prices are about to begin their
inevitable rise.

What will the effects be on forests and forestry?  Is this something we
should be trying to anticipate and plan for?  For some background and
links, go to

Karl Davies, Practicing Forester

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