Oil at $35+

Karl Davies karl at daviesand.com
Sat Sep 9 10:56:20 EST 2000

Ron Wenrich wrote:


> Don't bank on the price of oil staying this high.  Home heating oil is
> rising because of the increased demand.

Demand for heating oil is about the same.  The problem is supply.  It's a long
story having to do with rising GLOBAL demand for gasoline which is made from the
same stock as heating oil: light, sweet crude.  It also has to do with
extraction of light, sweet crude being in decline for years.  Go to
http://www.egroups.com/messages/energyresources and search the archive.

Additional heavy, sour crude is available from the Persian Gulf states and
elsewhere, but refinery capacity for processing heavy, sour crude into gasoline
and heating oil is limited.  There's no incentive to build new refineries
because heavy, sour crude will be in decline in a few years, at which time
refinery capacity will be more than adequate.  Catch 22.

> Too many people are trying fill up
> their home heating tanks before the cold weather, which is causing the price
> to rise prematurely.   A local oil dealer says the price will drop by
> December.

He's dreaming.

> The Saudis are trying to bring the price down to $25, which they feel is a
> stable price.  At that price, they can fend off alternative fuels.  I even
> heard one Saudi official who feels that oil prices will drop substantially
> in the next decade.  This will come about from the use of hydrogen fuel.
> Mercedes (I believe) is coming out with a hydrogen car in 2003.

That was Yamani talking.  What he neglects to mention is that hydrogen is an
ENERGY CARRIER, not an ENERGY SOURCE.  They make hydrogen from fossil fuels,
mainly natural gas, which is also in decline.  Yamani's a horse trader trying to
talk down the price of oil so he can grab more for himself and his clients.  Not
much good news on the energy front at all, unless of course you're concerned
about global warming...


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