Current odds of Immortality by 2050 at 30 to 49%

morgan at skyler.arc.ab.ca morgan at skyler.arc.ab.ca
Fri Nov 25 18:32:46 EST 1994


The full description of this claim is as follows:

The death rate (per hundred thousand persons) will drop by 90%, relative to 1994, in any year through 2050. The measurement population is people in the United States, who are at least one year old. Persons in suspended animation (or cryonic suspension, reduced metabolism, etc.), if they are expected to remain suspended for a month or more, count as dead while suspended; they are omitted from the calculation after the year of "death".

This claim will be judged 12/31/2053.

The odds shown in the subject line are the consensus of participants in an
Idea Futures market (the two prices are the buy and sell prices for 'funny
money' bets).  You can learn more about this market by pointing your world
wide web browser to

     http://skyler.arc.ab.ca/~morgan/IF/IF.shtml

To participate in the market, a web browser with forms support is mandatory
(e.g., Mosaic2alpha or later, Lynx).  Instructions for accessing the web
(including email and plain text browsers) are in the WWW FAQ, posted to
news.answers, and the various comp.infosystems.www groups.

The current odds for all questions on the market are as follows:

     $Cdn [misc] 25 - 87%  Cdn$ below $.65 US by June 95
     3SAT [sci]  35 - 40%  Good 3SAT Algorithm by 2020
     Am30 [misc] 20 - 40%  30 amends. to US Const by 2000
     CFsn [sci]   8 - 15%  Cold Fusion
     Canc [sci]  30 - 40%  Cancer Cured by 2010
     Cryo [sci]  15 - 19%  Cryonics Catches On by 2000
     Ferm [sci]   1 - 70%  Fermat's Last Theorem resolved
     Immo [sci]  30 - 49%  Immortality by 2050
     Moon [sci]  30 - 36%  Moonbase by 2025
     Neut [sci]  15 - 25%  Neutrino mass >0
     QueS [misc] 15 - 25%  Quebec separation
     SLvl [sci]  15 - 25%  1 m rise in Sea Level
     SSTO [sci]  25 - 30%  Single Stage to Orbit
     Stew [sci]  13 - 15%  Nanotech Stewart platform
     Terr [misc] 45 - 46%  Nuke capable Terrorists
     Time [sci]   5 - 15%  Time Travel
     Univ [sci]  14 - 30%  Eventual Collapse of Universe

Full descriptions and conditions of these claims are available at

     http://skyler.arc.ab.ca/~morgan/IF/claim.shtml

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