Classics of Longevity Science -- Theories of Exceptional Longevity

Leonid Gavrilov gavrilov at aol.com
Thu Jun 10 09:35:41 EST 2004


Greetings,


May I bring your attention to 3 key scientific publications 
["Classics of Longevity Science"], which first suggested a
quantitative theory of survival at extreme old ages.  These three
pioneer publications are now available at:

http://longevity-science.org/Heterogeneity.html

These three scientific publications are the first to introduce the
idea of population heterogeneity (gamma-distributed individual risk)
to explain a logistic function for mortality increase with age with
subsequent late-life mortality deceleration, mortality levelling-off,
and mortality plateaus.

While reviewing scientific manuscripts for peer-reviewed journals, and
research proposals for funding agencies, I have found that these three
key publications are not known to many authors/grant applicants --
hence here are the detailed references with weblinks:


Beard, R.E. 1959. Note on some mathematical mortality models. In:
G.E.W.Wolstenholme and M.O'Connor (eds.). The Lifespan of Animals.
Little, Brown, Boston, 302-311
http://longevity-science.org/Beard-1959.pdf


Beard, R.E. 1964 Some observations on stochastic process with
particular reference to mortality studies. International Congress of
Actuaries, vol.3, p.463-477
http://longevity-science.org/Beard-1964.pdf


Beard RE. 1971 Some aspects of theories of mortality, cause of death
analysis, forecasting and stochastic processes. In. Biological aspects
of demography (Brass W., Ed.), Taylor & Francis, London 1971
http://longevity-science.org/Beard-1971.pdf

Hope it helps,


Kind regards,


-- Leonid Gavrilov
Author of the book "The Biology of Life Span"
 http://longevity-science.org/index.html#Book




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