Classics of Longevity Science -- Theories of Exceptional Longevity

Leonid Gavrilov gavrilov at
Thu Jun 10 09:35:41 EST 2004


May I bring your attention to 3 key scientific publications 
["Classics of Longevity Science"], which first suggested a
quantitative theory of survival at extreme old ages.  These three
pioneer publications are now available at:

These three scientific publications are the first to introduce the
idea of population heterogeneity (gamma-distributed individual risk)
to explain a logistic function for mortality increase with age with
subsequent late-life mortality deceleration, mortality levelling-off,
and mortality plateaus.

While reviewing scientific manuscripts for peer-reviewed journals, and
research proposals for funding agencies, I have found that these three
key publications are not known to many authors/grant applicants --
hence here are the detailed references with weblinks:

Beard, R.E. 1959. Note on some mathematical mortality models. In:
G.E.W.Wolstenholme and M.O'Connor (eds.). The Lifespan of Animals.
Little, Brown, Boston, 302-311

Beard, R.E. 1964 Some observations on stochastic process with
particular reference to mortality studies. International Congress of
Actuaries, vol.3, p.463-477

Beard RE. 1971 Some aspects of theories of mortality, cause of death
analysis, forecasting and stochastic processes. In. Biological aspects
of demography (Brass W., Ed.), Taylor & Francis, London 1971

Hope it helps,

Kind regards,

-- Leonid Gavrilov
Author of the book "The Biology of Life Span"

More information about the Ageing mailing list