MAJOR ERUPTION STROMBOLI DUE APR.95

jcgrover at peg.apc.org jcgrover at peg.apc.org
Fri Mar 24 19:19:00 EST 1995


From: John Charles GROVER <jcgrover>



Alan Jones,
          FIVE MONTHS WARNING OF MAJOR STROMBOLI ERUPTION DUE APR. 1995
I have translated the following report sent me by fax from my colleague Dr
Claude BLOT (rhymes with "Joe") on 10 November 1994, advising of an eruption
of STROMBOLI VOLCANO due 20 April 1995 plus/minus 15 days. This warning was
thus five months ahead of the median date of expected eruption in the
Mediterranean region. After years studying the region while establishing the
seismological stations in the 1970s, Blot understands the seismicity there.
He predicted  ETNA eruption of 1978 nearly a year ahead (340 days plus/minus
15) and that of 1983  with lava flow four months ahead (115 days plus/minus
15).  Copies of the forecasts were sent to various persons who ensured that
they were never mentioned when both forecasts were spot on.  This is a new
forecast which was conveyed to the Volcanological Association of Europe also
in November.

Your advice of E-mail addresses for university geological conferences as
well as those interested in volcanic and earthquake events and prediction wd
be greatly appreciated. My major volume on this subject is nearly complete,
with c.115 illustrations, the only overall work of its kind in the English
language.  It covers the period 1950-1994, is historically correct being a
partly autobiographical field adventure over some years as well.

                       *    *    *    *    *

[Translation from French begins.]
TEST OF FORECAST OF AN IMPORTANT ERUPTION OF THE VOLCANO STROMBOLI IN THE
SECOND QUARTER OF 1995.

Since 1960 I have observed that volcanic eruptions were frequently preceded
by shocks at depth beneath the volcanoes (c. 200-300 km) a few months
previously.  Later the Plate Tectonic Theory with its concept of subduction
zones accepted the idea of a deep root for volcanoes.

Numerous prediction tests have been made for 30 years (and published) -- in
the New Hebrides (Vanuatu), in New Zealand, in Sicily... with a significant
percentage of success; a few failures being imputed to "aborted eruptions"
(generally manifested by volcanic seismic crises).

At the end of 1993 and the beginning of 1994, two shocks were detected
beneath STROMBOLI ISLAND:
1993 Nov. 27:  38.90N  14.86E   h = 295 km    m = 4.8
1994 Jan. 05:  39.08N  15.14E   h = 273 km    m = 5.8
[STROMBOLI:    38.79N  15.21E]

The second shock (felt VII in Southern Italy) is the most violent to have
occurred there for a few decades.

Following earlier observations, the volcanic manifestations are (in
principle) proportionally more important, for the energy released by the
deep precursor shocks is considerable.  The date of the expected paroxysmal
eruption is difficult to determine with precision (the statistics of the
observed case being insufficient).  The simplified parameter of correlations
between shocks and eruptions, the "apparent speed" = h/t, depends on the
depth of the shock, probably the energy liberated (magnitude) = the internal
state of the volcano (quiescent, permanent activity, level and conditioning
of magma).




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