Can I count?

Una Smith una at phy.duke.edu
Thu Sep 3 09:48:24 EST 1992


Steve Modena said:

>>> With the exception of one open post, Una could be making those numbers up.
>>> Why are there 14 offline expressions of opinions to two online?  

then pnh at fcsparc6.ncifcrf.gov (Paul N Hengen) said:

>> ...I trust her; don't we all?

and then tim at ccwf.cc.utexas.edu replied:

>Hmmm ...  if analysis of the {Marilyn vos Savant/Monty Hall/Let's Make a Deal}
>problem is used as a benchmark for assessing skill at manipulating numbers,
>then perhaps not ...   :)


Hey, even a brilliant, articulate person like myself can make mistakes
sometimes. ;-)  Monty Hall is right:  if the MC gives you the choice
of switching after one of the two doors you didn't pick is opened, then
you should switch.  I was wrong!  Satisfied?  Can we get on with science?

-- 

Una Smith   una at phy.duke.edu    Department of Biology
                                Yale University
                                New Haven, CT  06511-7444



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