That pesky ace of hearts

tivol at tivol at
Tue Jun 14 15:57:22 EST 1994

Sean Eddy tries Bayes' rule; however, the probability that west has the A of
D is 100%.  For all possible distributions of the remaining 25 missing (from
north-south hands) cards, 48% have the A of H in west's hand.  No distribu-
tions are eliminated by the prior knowledge that west's hand contains the A
of D.  This is different from the "restricted choice" problem (see a good
bridge referrence) since west was free to lead *any* card from his hand.

				Probabilistically yours, but not Baying,

				Bill Tivol

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