That pesky ace of hearts

[tivol at tethys.ph.albany.edu]

Sean Eddy tries Bayes' rule; however, the probability that west has the A of
D is 100%.  For all possible distributions of the remaining 25 missing (from
north-south hands) cards, 48% have the A of H in west's hand.  No distribu-
tions are eliminated by the prior knowledge that west's hand contains the A
of D.  This is different from the "restricted choice" problem (see a good
bridge referrence) since west was free to lead *any* card from his hand.

				Probabilistically yours, but not Baying,

				Bill Tivol