Ace of Hearts (the bio part, presumably)

futers at biovax.leeds.ac.uk futers at biovax.leeds.ac.uk
Wed Jun 15 04:08:15 EST 1994


In article <2tl523$j3u at rebecca.albany.edu>, tivol at tethys.ph.albany.edu writes:
>Warren Gallin says it is 50% that west has the A of H; not true.  West has 12
>unknown cards, East has 13; east, therefore, has a greater chance (52%) than
>west to hold the A of H.
>
>					Probabilistically yours,
>
>					Bill Tivol

I think Warren Gallin is correct with his 50% even before the first trick
is finished as any bridge player would know that although East has thirteen
cards, he is going to play almost any card rather that the ace of hearts
in reply to his partner's ace of diamonds and therefore even before it is
played the first card from East is not going to be the ace of hearts.
Just my tuppence worth. ;-)
      Simon Futers




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