Re-Statisitics puzzle i0524

[BRANDAUER CARL M]

sre at al.cam.ac.uk (Eddy Sean) writes:

>In article <1994Jun15.065418.2854508058 at cbrc.mgh.harvard.edu> Joanne_Ownbey at CBRC.MGH.HARVARD.EDU writes:
>  >Being mathematically challenged- I'm confused.  How can the probability
>  >that he holds the ace of hearts go up and down?  Also, unless the ace's are
>  >somehow linked why should the fact that west holds the ace of d. influence
>  >whether he holds the ace of hearts, (other than by cutting the possibilties
>  >(ie, number of cards he holds) down by one?

>The probabilities shift to reflect new information about the
>situation. Take an extreme case; say I flip fifty-one cards face up,
>leaving west with a single card; none of the face-up cards is the ace
>of hearts.  The probability that west holds the ace of hearts is now
>1.  

Nonsense. Since the the deck consists of 52 cards, there are N-1 or 51
degrees of freedom and once 51 cards have been turned over the problem (if
there is one) no longer exists.

Chers - Carl