Real doom ahead. Was: Re: Reposted w/permission: A Matloff email....

Arthur E. Sowers arthures at access5.digex.net
Fri Jun 19 19:35:33 EST 1998



On Fri, 19 Jun 1998, russell.martin wrote:

> Richard Ottolini wrote:
> > 
> > >:      Thanks for posting this very interesting article.  On one hand
> > >: we will be required to work until we are 70 to get Social Security
> > >: while on the other companies won't hire us after we reach middle
> > >: age.  Should make for some "interesting" times as middle aged street
> > >: people.  Anybody else out there think that things are getting just
> > >: a little screwy in the U.S.?
> > 
> > An interesting (non-scientific) retirement poll in the online USA Today
> > a couple days ago found about 60% of the respondees plan to retire
> > before 60.  Most people therefore aren't planning to wait to official
> > retirement age, but then again reality bites.
> > 
> > Another interesting statistical contradiction is that the stock
> > market is porking out from a wash of boomer retirement savings,
> > yet the government claims the US savings rate has never been lower.
> > How to reconcile this?
> 
> I don't now how to reconcile it, but I'll tell you how to make money
> from it.  Since baby boomer retirement money is pushing the market up
> now, I'm going to short the market in 20 years when the boomers start
> taking money out big time.  We could be in store for one of the worse
> bear markets of all time.
> 
> Russell Martin
> 
> 

Someday I'd like to post some comments on a hypothetical future collapse
in the world economy. Its not based on my thinking, but some articles in
the WSJ.  Speculation of this kind is very dangerous stuff, but we have
had a number of apocalypse and post-apocalypse movies and sci-fi books,
but it could happen. Ebola scenarios, Ozone hole...sealevel rize, economic
collapse, population collapse, shift of world power, etc, etc. 

Just to whet some whistles out there, I plugged in "post-industrial" into
altavista a few nights ago and got about 50 book titles going back 20
years. Folks, we've already been in this era for some time now, according
to these authors (and I'm not one of them). I'm not particularly worried,
because I think I'll be dead before anything really rough starts to
happen. One thing that was predicted years ago seem to be still true: most
of the new jobs being created will be low skill, low paid. High skill,
higher paid jobs will move to or be created overseas. And, I also notice a
continuous trend for employers to be scaling back their contributions to
employee benefit plans, and health insurance plans continue a slide in
what they pay providers and a slide in what benefit caps are. 

Art




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