The 'New Statistics' of resampling, bootstrapping...
asmarina at next03epsl.wam.umd.edu
Sun Sep 26 14:06:46 EST 1993
Resampling, (bootstrapping, etc.), is revolutionizing the practice of
statistic, and the way it is taught. For articles, and information on
software + books, results of classroom trails, and descriptions of pending
projects in which teachers can become involved, contact the University of
Maryland's Resampling Project. We are especially interested in class
attn. P.G. Bruce
College of Business
University of Maryland,
College Park, MD 20742.
email: pcbruce at wam.umd.edu
(mark attn. P. G. Bruce).
please provide both postal and email address.
HERE ARE A COUPLE OF PUZZLES TO GET YOU STARTED.
SOLUTIONS WILL BE POSTED IN TWO(2) DAYS:
Two Puzzles: Does your reasoning lead you astray on the following
puzzles? Most people's does. In a couple of days, we will post
resampling (simulation) solutions that illustrate how such an approach,
though less sophisticated than a formulaic one, yields correct answers and
offers fewer opportunities to go wrong.
1) Three identical boxes each contain two coins. In one box both are
pennies, in the second both are nickels, and in the third there is one
penny and one nickel.
A man chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is a
penny, what is the probability that the other coin in the box is also a
penny?" [from Goldberg, 1960, p. 99]
2) A bag contains one counter, known to be either white or black. A white
counter is put in, the bag shaken, and a counter drawn out, which proves
to be white. What is now the chance of drawing a white counter? From
Lewis Carroll's PILLOW PROBLEMS (1895/1958) (p. 2, via Martin Gardner)
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