Bayesian methods in dose-response assessment

Daniel Byrd ctraps at
Mon Jul 31 21:11:43 EST 2000

The Society for Risk Analysis, the Electric Power Research Institute,
Resources for the Future, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
will present the following  workshop,.


On September 18-20, 2000, at the Conference Center of Resources for the
Future, 1616 P Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036

Make plans now to join us for this informative event.  Seating is
limited, so please register early.  Reduced fee registrations are
available until 8/14/00.

Visit the Society for Risk Analysis web site at and download
a pdf file with registration information.  To link directly to the
announcement, click on

This three-day workshop is intended to identify methods to satisfy an
unmet need in human health risk assessment, estimating responses at low
doses.  Most current assessments use some kind of upper bound on
response.  Such estimates are useful for many purposes, but sometimes an
unbiased estimate is needed.  The organizers (primarily James D. Wilson
of Resources for the Future and Annie Jarabek of the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency) suggest that approaches based on Bayesian logic may
lead to low-dose estimates of response and offer the workshop to explore
this possibility.  The workshop will begin with an introduction to
Bayesian analysis, for persons unfamiliar with the methods, and will
cover applications of Bayesian methods in medical research, space
exploration, exposure assessment, and ecological risk.  The workshop
will explore the use of Bayesian methods in modeling dose-response
relationships and integrating disparate data in dose-response
estimation.  It will conclude with discussion of future directions and
research needs.

Some of the invited speakers and their proposed topics are:

William Farland; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - Purpose and
Importance of the Workshop.

Thomas Louis; University of Minnesota - Theory of Bayesian Logic and
Statistics – Introduce Concepts, Illustrate Range of Uses, Describe

Kevin Brand; University of Ottawa - Using Readily-Available Software to
Compute Posteriors, Given Appropriate Input.

D. Warner North; Northworks - Applying Bayesian Logic in a Decision
Context – Review Theory; Describe Application to Relevant Decisions.

Donald Berry; M.D. Anderson Cancer Center - Use of Bayesian Approaches
in Medical Research – Clinical Trials – Illustrate Use, Need to Identify
Appropriate Priors.

Alison Cullen; University of Washington - Identifying Inputs.

Mitchell Small; Carnegie-Mellon University - Using Dispararate Data in
Exposure Assessment.

Igor Linkoff; Menzie-Cura Associates - Application to Ecological Risk .
Illustrate Use, Illustrate How to Deal With Errors in Data.

L. Anthony Cox; Cox Associates - Bayesian Risk Assessment: Combining
Evidence from Multiple Sources.

Daniel Byrd; CTRAPS - Constructing an Exposure-Response Function.

R. Wyzga; Electric Power Research Institute - Issues in Estimating
Dose-response Functions.

Annie Jarabek; US Environmental Protection Agency and Vic Hasselblad;
Duke University -  Using a Bayesian Approach to Integrate Data.

Donald Barnes; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - Where Do We Go
>From Here? Applications and Research Needs.

Daniel M. Byrd III, Ph.D., D.A.B.T.
Consultants in Toxicology, Risk Assessment and Product Safety
Suite N707
560 N Street, SW
Washington, DC 20024
(202)484-7707 - phone
(202)484-0616 - fax
ctraps at - email

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