CJD CRISIS ? Discuss

Nigel Kenward mbxnjk at vax.nott.ac.uk
Mon Apr 29 04:04:08 EST 1996


HI, Here'a a point for discussion:

As you probably know, a new "strain" of CJD has recently been dentified in the UK 
(distinguished by: age of of patients, pathology, speed of disease and symptoms it presents 
with) and naturally this has been linked with the outbreaks of B.S.E. over the last 10 years 
or so.
Last WEEK 3 new cases were discovered, including 2 in the same town ! This brings the total so 
far this year to substantially more than would be expected with the more normal CJD SO;

Is this the tip of the iceberg ? Is this the start of the traditional "bell-shaped curve" seen 
with infectious diseases ? Is it just a statistical anomaly ? Are the "doom-mongers" like 
Prof. Lacey and Dr Dealer right in saying there could be thousands of cases in the next 10 
years ?

Obviously the answer to these is "nobody knows, but what do you think ?

-- 
            ____     ___
|\   |  |  /    \   /     |         NIGEL KENWARD,
| \  |  | |   ___  |__    |         Dept. Biochemistry,
|  \ |  | |     |  |      |         Nottingham University Medical School.
|   \|  |  \____/   \___  |___      Clifton Boulevard.
-------------------------------     Nottingham. NG7 2UH.
 Tel (0115 924 9924) ext 44789      Fax (0115 942 2225)
  email:mbxnjk at vax.nott.ac.uk      "You can tell me.......I'm a doctor"



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