AIDS and increased mortality
rec at iupui.net.
Thu Aug 31 13:50:04 EST 1995
ORIGINAL POSTING FROM:
>Did you see the article in the daily summary on decreased
Yes. I did. ("Pause in life-expectancy gains apparently
tied to impact of aids." AIDS daily summary Aug. 30, 1995)
>Can you tell me when the market first recognized this trend,
>and what is their analysis?
Perhaps the earliest analysis came from C. Proulx,- Scotia McLeod
Inc. Nov. 25, 1994:
"....although 3Q94 results show strong healthy growth, we want
to see mortality data before concluding that ******'s natural
growth rate is again in the 20% - 25% range and therefore
justifies the premium multiple. Lack of mortality data make
the analysis of 3Q94 difficult at this point. The 1Q94 results
showed an EPS increase of 21.6%. However, we believe it inflated
******'s natural growth rate as mortality was up 4.3% in the US
well above the long term trend. We estimate the contribution
from higher mortality than normal in 1Q94 at $0.02 per share."
>Also can you tell me when the experts are predicting that this
pandemic will reach it's peak, and then proceed to burn out?
Now that is a bit out of my reach. I will cross post your
question and let the experts speak for themselves. Monitor
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