Declining number of AIDS cases in Europe

Bernd Sebastian Kamps Redaktion at HIV.NET
Mon Sep 29 11:19:04 EST 1997


HIV.NET analysis of the European AIDS epidemic
September 1997

                "Unprecedented decline in European AIDS cases in 1997"

http://hiv.net/epidemiology 
- 18 figures 
- free download of the final results 
   (zipped 1.2 MByte, unzipped 7 MByte)


                                *************************

PRESS RELEASE:

There will be an unprecedented decline in the number of AIDS cases in Europe
in 1997. This is the result of the HIV.NET analysis of the EUROPEAN
NON-AGGREGATE AIDS DATA SET (ENAADS, version 9703), available on the
internet at http://hiv.net/epidemiology (18 figures online; free download of
the complete analysis: 118 figures and 63 tables).

The most important results of the HIV.NET analysis are: 

1.
     The number of all new AIDS cases diagnosed between 1/1/1997 and
     31/12/1997 will be 28% lower than the number of cases diagnosed in 1995. 

     AIDS cases among homosexual individuals will drop by 50% over the same
     time period. 

     AIDS cases among IV drug users and heterosexually infected individuals will
     drop by approximately 20%. 


2.
     The decrease in the number of new cases is most pronounced in countries
     where homosexual contact is (or was) the predominant mode of HIV
     transmission (changes from 1995 to 1997): France (-55%), Germany (-47%),
     Great Britain (-48%), Netherlands (-60%), Belgium (-41%), Denmark (-37%),
     Austria (-39%). 

     The decrease is less pronounced in Spain (-13%) and in Italy (-22%). 
     The number of new AIDS cases will increase in Portugal (+28%) and in
     Greece (+32%). 


3.
     In countries where homosexual contact is (or was) the predominant mode of
     HIV transmission, the number of AIDS cases in 1997 will be lower (France,
     Germany, Netherlands) or equal (Great Britain, Belgium, Denmark, Austria) 
     to the number of AIDS cases diagnosed in 1988. 

4.
Conclusion: The AIDS incidence has substantially decreased in most
European countries, reaching pre-1988 levels in countries with predominant
homosexual transmission of HIV. This trend is probably the result of recent
advances in antiretroviral combination therapy which efficiently controls HIV
replication. 

Further information about antiretroviral treatment:
NIH Draft Report Principles of Therapy of HIV Infection (html format)
http://www.healthcg.com/hiv/nihreport/

HHS Draft Guidelines for the Use of Antiretroviral Agents in HIV
Infected Adults and Adolescents (html format)
http://www.healthcg.com/hiv/nihreport/guide/


                                        *******************

Background:


The HIV.NET analysis is based on 191.000 cases notified to the national
authorities as of March 31th, 1997, and referred to the European Centre for
the Epidemiological Monitoring of AIDS in Paris (ENAADS; see
"Acknowledgement"). When corrected for known notification delays, the
estimated number of AIDS cases in Europe on 1/1/1998 will be about 212.000.
The HIV.NET analysis for 1997 is based on this estimate. 

You may download the results of the complete analysis -118 figures and 63
tables- which are integrated into a special HIV.NET presentation software.
There are no limitations to your copying and distributing the HIV.NET analysis. 

HIV.NET presentation software
http://hiv.net/hiv/epidem/gigamed.exe
("gigamed.exe": 837 kByte; unzipped about 4 MByte) 

HIV.NET source files 
http://hiv.net/hiv/epidem/gmsource.exe
("gmsource.exe": 543 kByte; unzipped about 3 MByte) 


With best regards

Bernd Sebastian Kamps
HIV.NET
bsk at hiv.net






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