Perspectives Weekend Edition - Nov 26
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Commentary
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Couple of points that deserve discussion this week:
- subscription and removal instructions are found at the end of the email.
- the Stockscores rating is based on a model that I created which factors
in about 40 different technical analysis indicators. It measures price,
volume and momentum activity to arrive at a score indicating overall
technical analysis strength. Technical analysis is the use of market
activity to reveal private information and market psychology. Using
technical analysis is often a good way for investors to evaluate whether
the market has already priced in fundamental information, or whether the
market even cares. The Stockscores are generated by a computer based on
this model, and will soon form the basis for a website where you will be
able to get the Stockscore on any stock each day. The site will also have
some great strategies and tools for scanning the market for opportunities.
- if you enjoy trading the market, I suggest you try the two-week free
trial to the Daily Edition. Each night, I check the market for trading
opportunities and let the subscribers know about them. In the past couple
of weeks, I have discussed stocks like CYLK ($8 3/4 to $13 1/8 in two
weeks), ICBL ($7.75 to $11.75 in two weeks), T.FCP ($1.13 to $1.40 in a
week and a half) and TDSC ($6 3/8 to $7 15/32 in two weeks). In addition to
finding some good opportunities, it is also a good way to learn more about
using technical analysis to find trades. Trial is free, year long
subscription is $125. If you wish to receive the trial, send a request to
stockperspectives at home.com.
Scores of Friday's Most Active Stocks
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* to calculate a score, 200 days of trading data is required. Those that do
not have sufficient trading data will show an n/a.
NASDAQ
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Company Symbol Stockscore
Ariel Corp. ADSP 72
Microsoft MSFT 42
Cisco Systems CSCO 82
Amazon.com AMZN 94
Qualcomm QCOM 89
US Over the Counter Bulletin Board
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Company Symbol Stockscore
High Speed N/S HSNS 72
M-Phase Tech XDSL 43
Breakaway Sol. BWAY n/a
DSL Net DSLN n/a
Telttran TLTG 40
Alberta Stock Exchange
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Company Symbol Stockscore
Turbo Genset TUR.A 83
Cell Loc CLQ 79
RightsMarket RTS n/a
Nuvo Network NNM 69
Angoss Soft. ANC 81
Vancouver Stock Exchange
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Company Symbol Stockscore
Unique Broad. UBS 81
E-Dispatch EWD 86
Telelink TCC 77
Botswana Dia. BWD 61
Wave Telecomm WV n/a
Toronto Stock Exchange
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Company Symbol Stockscore
American Barr. ABX 55
Nortel Network NT 92
Imasco IMS 80
BCE Inc BCE 92
Wi-Lan WIN n/a
Stocks to Watch
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Ameridex Minerals (AMD)
VSE
Stockscore - 74
Rating - Optimistic
Reference - (604)531-9639
- This stock looks like it could see a move higher over the next few weeks.
The company has diversified into the Internet business, and started a web
site at www.liquidationshop.com. On this site, they utilize a digital
compression technology that they have licensed from a company called
Digital Accelerator Corp. Once you download the plug-in, the speed of
downloading graphics is pretty amazing. Word is we'll see an announcement
concerning this technology soon. With the success of CFLO this week
(Cacheflow is a deal that speeds up Internet downloading and begain trading
this week, hitting $126 on the opening day), looks like these kind of
technologies are capturing the market's interest. Management was at Comdex
last week and told me that they had some good discussions which may
generate some new deals. AMD has a good share structure, so positive news
should mean a quick run higher. This company is worth doing your
due-diligence on.
I-Party (IPTY)
OTC BB
Stockscore - 67
Rating - Optimistic
Reference - www.iparty.com
- these guys are working on getting an AMEX listing over the next few
weeks, and are meeting with the AMEX listings people on Dec 7th. Came up
this week as the word started to get out, should see more strength as they
get closer to the move. There are whispers of a very big deal being
discussed, but I have no idea what. Could be a takeover or joint venture
with a major Internet company, but that is only a guess on my part. Very
strong management group with great contacts. Good stock to consider for the
next few months.
Predict-It (PRIT)
OTC BB
Stockscore - 70
Rating - Optimistic
Reference: http://www.predictit.com
- PRIT's business is the development and distribution of interactive
Internet applications. Their innovative "prediction exchange" system allows
users to pick and exchange predictions with other users. The Predict It
engine lends itself to calculating predictions for any set of events whose
outcome can be measured objectively. The company's initial product
offering, "Predict It Sports," allows users to pick and exchange
predictions on sporting events with fellow users. Their database engine
then calculates the accuracy of those predictions and allows other users to
view the entries. Kind of a fun product. Word I am hearing from a good
source is that this company has a bunch of news and intend to move the
stock higher in the next couple of weeks. Market activity supports the
rumor, as the stock started trading more volume over the last week and
broke the downtrend. Looks like it has good potential to make a move
higher, worth checking out.
Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR)
OTC BB
Stockscore -
Rating -
Reference: http://www.avanir.com
- I featured this stock to our daily edition readers earlier this week and,
although it has moved up a bit already, I think it can still go higher so I
thought it was worth discussing in the weekend edition. The company makes a
treatment for oral/facial herpes. At first, the FDA turned down their
request for approval as a pharmaceutical drug, but after an appeal, the FDA
not only approved the treatment, but made it eligble for over-the-counter
sales. They are in discussions with 7 drug companies for a joint venture on
distribution, and expectations are that we will see news on a deal pretty
quick. Market activity showing a good deal of anticipation, looks like it
can go higher.
Unique Broadband Systems (UBS)
VSE
Stockscore - 81
Rating - Bullish
Reference: http://www.uniquesys.com
- I have told you for a couple of weeks that UBS would likely pull back to
$0.95 before it could make a bounce. Well, it pulled back to a low of $0.91
on Monday before it made its bounce. I have to say, I did not expect to see
the stock bounce back so well, as it closed the week at $2.49. Looks very
strong right now, but it is also very risky at these prices. Great trader
as liquidity is strong and there is lots of volatility.
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
NASDAQ
Stockscore - 82
Rating - Bullish
Reference: http://www.cisco.com
- Cisco still has a bullish rating, but its score has been dropping and I
think it may see some profit taking soon. The stock has had a great run
since I featured it as a candidate for a move higher a few weeks ago. If
you own this stock and are a trader, you may want to watch for signs that
it is time to take your profits off the table. Could see a pullback to the
$83 level or so. Exercise some caution.
The Scores - What They Mean
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***The scores that are attached to the stocks are based on a proprietary
model developed by Stockscores.com. This model factors in numerous
technical analysis indicators and utilizes the past 200 days of trading
data. Stocks that have not traded for 200 trading days will not have a
score calculated.
Scores greater than 70
Bullish
This stock is worth considering as a buying opportunity. Our model
indicates that the stock has good potential to go higher in the short term,
and is worth taking time to consider. Complete your due diligence on this
stock so that you can make your own judgement on the quality of the company
before making a decision, and remember that our score is valid for the
price that the stock is at when we applied the score. Of course, a score of
98 has more potential than a score of 72, but all stocks in this range
deserve your consideration. In addition, if you are short this stock, you
should consider covering the short position.
Scores between 60 and 70
Optimistic
Market activity is beginning to indicate improved optimism for this stock
and it should be put on a watch list as a stock to consider. If you already
like this company's fundamentals, you should now look for the signals that
the time is right to own the stock. If you own the stock, you are likely in
good shape but may want to consider taking profits if profits are high. If
you are short the stock, you should approach your position with some
caution and watch for the signal that it is time to cover.
Scores between 40 and 60
Neutral
Market activity is doing little to indicate the future direction of this
stock. The stock is likely in a trading range, or, if it has been in a
strong trend over the recent past, it may be starting to reverse that
trend. If you own this stock and are in a profitable position, you should
consider whether the stock is reversing and it may be time to take your
money off the table.
Scores between 30 and 40
Cautionary
Market activity is beginning to indicate caution is warranted for this
stock and it should be put on a watch list as a stock to sell or short. If
you believe that the company's fundamentals do not warrant the valuation
the stock has received, you should now look for the signals that the time
is right to short the stock. If you are already short the stock, you are
likely in good shape but may want to consider taking profits if profits are
high. If you are long the stock, you should approach your position with
some caution and watch for the signal that it is time to sell.
Scores less than 30
Bearish
Market activity is very negative on this stock and it may be very risky to
hold this stock. Shorting opportunities should be explored after doing the
appropriate due diligence. If the stock has suffered a major sell off
already, traders may want to watch for signs of a reversal bounce as a long
trading opportunity, but be sure to watch for the technical reversal which
will likely be accompanied by an increase in the stock score.
As a final thought on this new scoring system, it is important to consider
where the score has come from. A stock that moves from 60 to 75 is likely a
better opportunity than one that moves from 90 to 75. Also, consider where
the stock is relative to the score. Again, a stock that has made
considerable gains of late may have a good score, but entering the stock
given the gains it has made will be riskier. Risk is factored into the
model, but use some of this common sense.
Finally, remember that this model is generated by a computer and should not
be used to make investment decisions. It is a tool which can help you find
opportunities from the thousands of stocks that are out there. However, you
have to do the work to take the list of stocks with the scores you want
down to the stocks you want to put your money on.
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