Perspectives Weekend Edition - Dec 3
=====================================
Commentary
==========
The speculative stock markets have been unbelievably good for traders over
the past few weeks. Numerous stocks have done better than double in less
than a couple of days on very strong volume, giving tremendous
opportunities to those market participants who have the ability to get in
and out of stocks over a relatively short time period.
How should you conduct research to find the stocks that are worth trading?
Simply, traders want to focus on stocks that are moving on excitement and a
somewhat euphoric psychology. The best way to find those stocks is by
focusing on trading volume.
When I say trading volume, what I mean is to focus on stocks that are
trading much more volume than normal. When our new website is finished
(hopefully that is not too far away), users will be able to scan the market
for stocks that are trading with statistically significant abnormal volume.
In the mean time, common sense will tell us that stocks that are hitting
the most actives list at least deserve to be checked out. I often rank the
market by number of trades and then look at the individual charts of the
stocks with the highest number. If I see significant volume spikes and a
strong technical analysis situation, I consider the stock as one to trade.
Each day, I am often focusing on 4 or 5 stocks that may present good day or
position trading opportunities (the difference between day and position
trading is that the latter is held over night).
You can fundamentally research stocks till you are blue in the face, my
experience is that in a hot market, you only need focus on the stocks
behaving abnormally to make very good money. It is not uncommon to buy a
stock at a couple hours before the market close and sell it early the next
day to make better than a 30% return. As some examples, go look at HRCT,
DLSC or UPGD, which all had phenomenal recent weeks.
Liquidity, new information and volatility make the traders' world go round.
Focus on stocks with these characteristics and you should find success.
Enough Said.
Scores of Friday's Most Active Stocks
============================================
* to calculate a score, 200 days of trading data is required. Those that do
not have sufficient trading data will show an n/a.
NASDAQ
======
Company Symbol Stockscore
Microsoft MSFT 77
Yahoo YHOO 76
Cisco Systems CSCO 98
Dell Computer DELL 65
Sun Micro. SUNW 98
US Over the Counter Bulletin Board
==================================
Company Symbol Stockscore
DSL Net DSLN n/a
Upgrade Intl. UPGD 65
Hartcourt HRCT 71
Delsecur DLSC 73
TCI Satel. TSATA 88
Canadian Venture Exchange
=========================
Company Symbol Stockscore
Unique Broad. UBS 66
Sideware Sys. SYD.U n/a
Image Power IPZ 50
E-Dispatch EWD 68
Wave Telecomm WV n/a
Toronto Stock Exchange
======================
Company Symbol Stockscore
Nortel Network NT 52
BCE Inc BCE 76
Imasco IMS 64
Alcan Alum. AL 82
Toronto Tips TIP 78
Stocks to Watch
===============
Wave Telecomm (WV)
CDNV
Stockscore - n/a
Rating - Bullish
Reference: http://www.wavve.com
- As this stock started trading only recently, the Stockscores model can
not calculate a score on it. However, the chart indicates a good deal of
potential and I would probably rate it a 95. On Friday, the stock traded
strong volume and broke out to a new high. It closed near its high for the
day, which is also important technically. Based on that, I expect the stock
will start next week strong, and we could see this stock be a top performer
for the newly formed Canadian Venture Exchange. The company is a facilities
based provider of managed data and voice services for Internet-centric
businesses. Company management has some very good Internet experience.
Ameridex Minerals (AMD)
CDNV
Stockscore - n/a
Rating - Optimistic
Reference - (604)531-9639
- I expect that Ameridex will soon announce their deal with Digital
Accelerator Corp. DAC makes a compression technology that allows on-screen
images to be downloaded very quickly. You can go to their site at
www.liquidationshop.com and download the plug-in to see how it works. I
tried it and was impressed with the extra speed. AMD is working to get
their story out, and I expect we'll see some added interest come into the
stock in the near term which should take the stock out of its present
trading range. Very small float and tightly held, it does not take much to
move the stock higher. Worth checking out.
Ecom Ecom (ECEC)
OTC BB
Stockscore - 61
Rating - Optimistic
Reference - www.ecomecom.com
- it has been a long and steady downward trend for ECEC, but over the past
few months we have not seen too much weakness, and have actually seen the
stock form a nice bottom with support at $1. On Friday, volume picked up
noticeably and the stock closed up strong. This market activity is
potential evidence for some new information that may take the stock higher
as more people learn of it. Looks to me as though ECEC may participate in
the rally we have seen in many technology deals over the past few weeks. We
may encounter resistance at $3, but that is still a pretty decent move from
current price levels. The move higher is likely in anticipation of the
launch of the ecom ecom Hub, which offer various e-commerce related
services to startup, small and home based businesses. ECEC is worth
checking out.
I-Party (IPTY)
OTC BB
Stockscore - 41
Rating - Neutral
Reference - www.iparty.com
- some of the I-Party people were in my home town this past week, and
showed a great deal of excitement for what is in store over the next 4 to 6
weeks. AMEX listing still in the works, but I think there is something
significantly bigger, although they would not let as to what they are
working on. When you look at the resumes of some of their board members,
guys like former Salomon Smith Barney Managing Director Bob Lessin, you
realize that these guys have impressive contacts and can engineer
significant deals. This stock has not performed great since I first started
discussing it, but I am sticking with it because of the people involved.
Likely see some strength next week.
Yahoo Inc (YHOO)
NASDAQ
Stockscore - 76
Rating - Bullish
Reference: http://www.yahoo.com
- Do you Yahoo? Seems a lot of people must as this stock has outperformed
the average Internet stock of late. The blue chip Internet names are where
the power is in this sector, and YHOO looks like it wants to go higher,
even though it is at pretty lofty levels already. Broke out to a new high
on Thursday which is positive technically. Some potential for short term
profit taking, but YHOO should continue to do well in the weeks to come.
The Scores - What They Mean
======================
***The scores that are attached to the stocks are based on a proprietary
model developed by Stockscores.com. This model factors in numerous
technical analysis indicators and utilizes the past 200 days of trading
data. Stocks that have not traded for 200 trading days will not have a
score calculated.
Scores greater than 70
Bullish
This stock is worth considering as a buying opportunity. Our model
indicates that the stock has good potential to go higher in the short term,
and is worth taking time to consider. Complete your due diligence on this
stock so that you can make your own judgement on the quality of the company
before making a decision, and remember that our score is valid for the
price that the stock is at when we applied the score. Of course, a score of
98 has more potential than a score of 72, but all stocks in this range
deserve your consideration. In addition, if you are short this stock, you
should consider covering the short position.
Scores between 60 and 70
Optimistic
Market activity is beginning to indicate improved optimism for this stock
and it should be put on a watch list as a stock to consider. If you already
like this company's fundamentals, you should now look for the signals that
the time is right to own the stock. If you own the stock, you are likely in
good shape but may want to consider taking profits if profits are high. If
you are short the stock, you should approach your position with some
caution and watch for the signal that it is time to cover.
Scores between 40 and 60
Neutral
Market activity is doing little to indicate the future direction of this
stock. The stock is likely in a trading range, or, if it has been in a
strong trend over the recent past, it may be starting to reverse that
trend. If you own this stock and are in a profitable position, you should
consider whether the stock is reversing and it may be time to take your
money off the table.
Scores between 30 and 40
Cautionary
Market activity is beginning to indicate caution is warranted for this
stock and it should be put on a watch list as a stock to sell or short. If
you believe that the company's fundamentals do not warrant the valuation
the stock has received, you should now look for the signals that the time
is right to short the stock. If you are already short the stock, you are
likely in good shape but may want to consider taking profits if profits are
high. If you are long the stock, you should approach your position with
some caution and watch for the signal that it is time to sell.
Scores less than 30
Bearish
Market activity is very negative on this stock and it may be very risky to
hold this stock. Shorting opportunities should be explored after doing the
appropriate due diligence. If the stock has suffered a major sell off
already, traders may want to watch for signs of a reversal bounce as a long
trading opportunity, but be sure to watch for the technical reversal which
will likely be accompanied by an increase in the stock score.
As a final thought on this new scoring system, it is important to consider
where the score has come from. A stock that moves from 60 to 75 is likely a
better opportunity than one that moves from 90 to 75. Also, consider where
the stock is relative to the score. Again, a stock that has made
considerable gains of late may have a good score, but entering the stock
given the gains it has made will be riskier. Risk is factored into the
model, but use some of this common sense.
Finally, remember that this model is generated by a computer and should not
be used to make investment decisions. It is a tool which can help you find
opportunities from the thousands of stocks that are out there. However, you
have to do the work to take the list of stocks with the scores you want
down to the stocks you want to put your money on.
Subscribing:
------------
Our Weekend Edition is available for free. Anyone who wishes to receive the
Weekend Edition can simply send a subscription request to
stockperspectives at home.com
Removal:
--------
To be removed from the Perspectives newsletter, please send an email with
remove in the subject heading and your email address(es) in the body of the
message to stockperspectives at home.com
Our Daily Edition will be by subscription only, with the following cost:
2 week trial - free
One year email subscription - US$100, Can$125
send requests to stockperspectives at home.com
Cheques should be mailed to:
per Spec tives
1919B - 4th Street S.W.
Suite 167
Calgary, AB T2S 1W4
At no time will Daily Edition subscribers see "promotional write ups".
We'll leave that to the promoters and financial institutions.
_________________________________
Disseminating our comments:
Comments from our Weekend Edition can be shared anywhere anytime, so long
as the following is appended to the comment:
"Provided by the Perspectives newsletter, samples available from
stockperspectives at home.com"
Comments from the Daily Edition can not be shared with anyone. For
subscribers only.
