In article <XYZ-120995084807 at srquadra.geo.brown.edu>, <XYZ at brown.edu> wrote:
> Question #2: Are these quarantines really necessary? Are there no
They have been highly successful, at any rate: so far as I know there
have been no cases of confirmed rabies in the British Isles.
>with people who relocate? How many animals with up-to-date vaccinations
>will develop rabies if bitten by a rabid animal (what's the failure rate of
>the vaccine?)
The failure rate is low but not zero. One study (looking at single doses
of vaccine, and basing response on antibody titres, which may not reflect
true susceptibility) came up with numbers like 33% failure rate at one
year after vaccination; but correctly vaccinated animals are generally
resistant.
However, I think that many Americans (and Canadians, Australians, and
Europeans) understimate rabies, thinking that human rabies is an extremely
rare problem. In fact tens of thousands of people die of rabies per year
(the last figure I remember seeing was approximately 20,000 deaths,
around 1985; this is almost certainly hugely underreported as it is
primarily a third world problem). Remember also that rabies is *the*
most fatal virus known: Ebola, with a mortality rate of some 80%, is
trivial in comaprison. Something like 5 (five) people have survived
rabies. (HIV may be close in terms of martality; it's hard to say.)
Further, the impact of rabies on wild animals is enormous.
The quarentine approach is by far the best, as far as I'm concerned, and
also as far as I'm concerned to try to evade it for your own purposes
would be criminal. The chance of a problem may be tiny, but the
potential risks are so immense that the chance is not worth taking.
Ian
--
Ian York (york at mbcrr.harvard.edu)
Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, 44 Binney St., Boston MA 02115
Phone (617)-632-3921 Fax (617)-632-2627