This is an interesting question and one this case might benefit from
further analysis by (e.g.) CDC. My first instinct would be to check the
manufacturer and batch numbers of the vaccines used as this might be a
quality control problem. It seems from your post that you have done a
good job at identifyimg potential risk factors (I am drawn to lactose
intolerance and identified auti-immune disorders) but you really need a
properly controlled study to confirm any of these. If you can get the
population at risk (i.e. the number of children vaccinated during that
round in your city) and the expected number of adverse events (from the
drug comapny literature) you should be able to calculate the probability
of seeing five adverse events. If this is small then you have some
evidence to use to push for an investigation.
Mass immunization is not risk free and the consensus of professional
opininion is that the good far outweighs the harm. This is the classic
utilitarian argument and has recently been demonstrated to good effect
with localised whooping cough epidemics amongst unvaccinated sub-
populations in the UK. However, some vaccines have proved extremely
dangerous in some populations (notably Easy-Measles and SPF66 prototype
malaria vaccine in West African populations). It is because of this
utilatarian argument that odd events like the one you describe tend to
go _openly_ uninvestigated (in most developmed countries someone will be
keeping track of adverse events) ... the logic is that by highlighting a
risk you create a bigger risk (by putting people of immunization) so
best to keep quiet. This can be counterproductive as (1) real problems
may go uninvestigated and (2) public opinion forms against immunization
due to perceived "official secrecy and complacency". In the UK, one of
the criteria for approval of a vaccine is the lack of compications for
(1) obvious ethical reasons, and (2) public acceptance of risk. This
means a juggle between vaccine safety and efficacy. Adverse events are
part and parcel of mass immunization campaigns.
Just my tuppence.
--
Mark Myatt
