"mat" <mats_trash at hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:43525ce3.0208200346.17c4045f at posting.google.com...
>mats_trash at hotmail.com (mat) wrote in message
news:<43525ce3.0208031252.370db1e5 at posting.google.com>...
> > No it won't you fool. Answer we this, and don't conveniently avoid it
> > like the other difficult parts of my last post:
> >
> > If a coin is flipped twice am I certain to get one head and one tail
> > (as would be the case according to your logic.
> >
> > If I flip a coin three times, what is the probability of getting at
> > least one head?
> >
> > Just answer those questions and we know where we stand. Furthermore,
> > if you don't answer you will confirm your inability to comprehend
> > basic mathematics.
>> Surely not that hard?
Not only was your question answered a long time ago, but a web page was
created just for you http://christianparty.net/randomdistribution.htm
The probability of getting one head on the first flip is 0.5. The
probability of getting two heads in a row are 0.5 x 0.5, or 0.25. Of
getting three in a row is 0.125, etc.
But that's an entirely different question than the probability of thousands
of students (randomly guessing on a four part multiple choice question)
getting the correct answer.
No matter how you slice it, if the guesses are truly random, the larger the
sample size, the closer you'll be to 25%. The sample size of TIMSS was
large enough that such random guessing would produce the correct answer 25%
plus or minus 2% (at most). In other words, the correct responses will all
be between 23-27%.
After correcting for the statistical significance of the girls' responses,
32% of their responses were not statistically significant, 23% were
statistically significant because they scored lower than if they'd just
guessed, and of the 45% that was statistically significant, the amount by
which they scored lower than boys was statistically significant on 24.4%, by
which they scored higher than boys was statistically significant on 2.6%,
and the difference between boys and girls was not stastically significant on
18%.
http://christianparty.net/timssphysics.htm
John Knight
