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[Molecular-evolution] Testing Evolutionary Theories of Aging - New Study

Leonid Gavrilov via mol-evol%40net.bio.net (by gavrilov from longevity-science.org)
Thu Feb 20 16:17:28 EST 2014


We are pleased to alert you about our new article, which tests a key 
prediction of some evolutionary theories of aging -  specifically, the 
prediction of old-age mortality deceleration, mortality leveling-off, and 
mortality plateau.  Surprisingly, we found that this prediction is not 
supported by existing data.

Here is the full reference to the article for future possible citations:

Biodemography of Old-Age Mortality in Humans and Rodents
Natalia S. Gavrilova; Leonid A. Gavrilov
The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical 
Sciences 2014;
doi: <http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glu009>10.1093/gerona/glu009; PMID: 
<http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24534516>24534516 [Published online 
ahead of print], 9 pages

Full text is available at:
Shorter link:

Feel free to contact us for complimentary PDF file of this article, if you 
have any problems using the provided links.

Comments and suggestions are most welcome!

Thank you, and looking forward to hear from you.

Kind regards,

<http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilov.htm>Leonid  and 

-- <http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilov.htm>Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D., 
GSA Fellow
-- <http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilova.htm>Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D., 
GSA Fellow
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
Website: <http://longevity-science.org/>http://longevity-science.org/

P.S.:  Here is the abstract of the new article:


The growing number of persons living beyond age 80 underscores the need for 
accurate measurement of mortality at advanced ages and understanding the 
old-age mortality trajectories.  It is believed that exponential growth of 
mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of deceleration, 
with slower rates of mortality increase at older ages.  This pattern of 
mortality deceleration is traditionally described by the logistic 
(Kannisto) model, which is considered as an alternative to the Gompertz 
model.  Mortality deceleration was observed for many invertebrate species, 
but the evidence for mammals is controversial.

We compared the performance (goodness-of-fit) of two competing models ­- 
the Gompertz model and the logistic (Kannisto) model using data for three 
mammalian species: 22 birth cohorts of U.S. men and women,  eight cohorts 
of laboratory mice, and 10 cohorts of laboratory rats.  For all three 
mammalian species, the Gompertz model fits mortality data significantly 
better than the “mortality deceleration” Kannisto model (according to the 
Akaike’s information criterion as the goodness-of-fit measure).  These 
results suggest that mortality deceleration at advanced ages is not a 
universal phenomenon, and survival of mammalian species follows the 
Gompertz law up to very old ages.


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