We are pleased to alert you about our new article, which tests a key
prediction of some evolutionary theories of aging - specifically, the
prediction of old-age mortality deceleration, mortality leveling-off, and
mortality plateau. Surprisingly, we found that this prediction is not
supported by existing data.
Here is the full reference to the article for future possible citations:
Biodemography of Old-Age Mortality in Humans and Rodents
Natalia S. Gavrilova; Leonid A. Gavrilov
The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical
doi: <http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glu009>10.1093/gerona/glu009; PMID:
<http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24534516>24534516 [Published online
ahead of print], 9 pages
Full text is available at:
Feel free to contact us for complimentary PDF file of this article, if you
have any problems using the provided links.
Comments and suggestions are most welcome!
Thank you, and looking forward to hear from you.
-- <http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilov.htm>Leonid Gavrilov, Ph.D.,
-- <http://longevity-science.org/CV-gavrilova.htm>Natalia Gavrilova, Ph.D.,
Center on Aging, NORC at the University of Chicago
P.S.: Here is the abstract of the new article:
The growing number of persons living beyond age 80 underscores the need for
accurate measurement of mortality at advanced ages and understanding the
old-age mortality trajectories. It is believed that exponential growth of
mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of deceleration,
with slower rates of mortality increase at older ages. This pattern of
mortality deceleration is traditionally described by the logistic
(Kannisto) model, which is considered as an alternative to the Gompertz
model. Mortality deceleration was observed for many invertebrate species,
but the evidence for mammals is controversial.
We compared the performance (goodness-of-fit) of two competing models -
the Gompertz model and the logistic (Kannisto) model using data for three
mammalian species: 22 birth cohorts of U.S. men and women, eight cohorts
of laboratory mice, and 10 cohorts of laboratory rats. For all three
mammalian species, the Gompertz model fits mortality data significantly
better than the mortality deceleration Kannisto model (according to the
Akaikes information criterion as the goodness-of-fit measure). These
results suggest that mortality deceleration at advanced ages is not a
universal phenomenon, and survival of mammalian species follows the
Gompertz law up to very old ages.
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